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Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

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Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#171

I'm fed up of having this argument in London. I rent, and pay about 2% of the value of the property in a year. I get around 8% on shares over the last ten years. Renting is an absolute no-brainer for me. People are shocked when I tell them how much return I get on my savings vs how much my rent is, especially when I tell them where I live (a 'premium' part of London).

A mortgage payment is a lot lower than current market rent, however. (I bought a 4 bedroom house in London and we pay about £1200 per month mortgage on that, although we actually overpay to decrease the principal faster).

Part of the reason I was able to buy, of course, was that I had saved a bunch of money, some of it invested in shares. Most people renting probably don't save as much as I habitually do, mind.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#172
The whole article is a statistical fallacy. You should never compare "average" growth rates but extreme outcomes. What is the best possible outcome and the worst one in case of renting and in case of mortgage?

P.S. Read Nassim Taleb (and Daniel Kahneman) for the sake of reason.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#173
The strictly financial part of the calculation is important, but personal cost of volatility may be even more important for those in a position to choose to rent or buy. I suggest it should also give pause to those who plan to build extensive social capital somewhere long term, but continue to rent.

I view real estate ownership as a personal hedge. As we've seen in San Francisco from displacement of those in less lucrative sectors, rent that floats exposes you directly to the prosperity -- and inflation -- of all sectors in a region: in the future, that sector may not be your own. Property taxes expose you to this effect, but it is attenuated in magnitude (doubly so by California's Prop 13). The inflation of rents rendering your employment in a sector in a place obsolete is not so important if you can pick up and move, but it can prove socially expensive (and not priced in) if you have roots, are a contributor to civil society and/or have children. I feel badly for lifetime-renters-by-necessity those whose social capital is wiped out by these fluctuations without any compensation.

As I see it, buying reduces the cross section of your outgoing flows to more radical local fluctuations, binding it to fixed or more moderate internationally-floating indicators (like ten-year treasuries, or LIBOR).

Notably, no major family outgoing flow is so volatile: groceries have similar costs nationwide. Many other goods are globalized, have substitute options, and little friction: housing stands out as the big exception.

I also suggest that marriage-house-children is not mere tradition, though it is that too. It is also a recognition of the increases in cost of volatility to the family unit: finding mutual job opportunities, and then the complexity of transplanting a child.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#174

Since housing is an emotional subject, let's try to argue by analogy. I regularly buy lots of dairy products. Milk, yogurt, cheese. Why shouldn't I save some money and buy myself a cow instead? That way, I could satisfy all my dairy needs, and maybe even have some extra milk to sell to my neighbors. No more making the dairy farmers rich at my expense. Now, assume that I sell my cow ten years later. And let's say that…

Mr Gates said: "These chickens are multiplying on an ongoing basis so there's no investment that has a return percentage anything like being able to breed chickens." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36487536

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#175
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very country-specific. I sold a flat in Scotland at the end of last year. I think I paid a flat-fee of about £2000 for a solicator to create the home-report/brochure, handle the necessary paperwork, post advert(s) online & arrange viewings, etc. I'm sure the fee was probably calculated based on the sale price, but the idea of paying 6% of the sale-price is very alien to the UK at least, and I suspect Europe t…

The costs of buying a house in Belgium is ridiculous. It's 10% tax, lawyers cost about 5x more. If you put an offer down you're on the hook for 10% of the price if you pull out.

Indeed. It's quite hard to make a profit from selling your own home in Belgium unless you have lived there for a long time. However, it appears that these extra costs are what prevents the Belgian housing market from inflating the way it does in the UK or US, eventually resulting in lower costs for both renters and buyers. A three bedroom house in a desirable suburb of Brussels costs less than a 50 sq m one-bedroom flat in an undesirable area of London.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#176
People often fail to take into account that risk has a value. I did some quantitative analysis (most of that is BS but that's another story) for a gig and it was big eye opener.

People talk like:

"Well property praises will always go up. It's a good investment yada yada" but there is a risk that they won't (which often is a sore point). There's even a risk they'll crash. Many people (at least in Sweden) is so over leveraged that it wouldn't take that much for the bank to require a mortgage holder to put in more money to cover the decreased value of the property.

How large risk for a "catastrophic decrease" varies but taking that risk is a cost in itself. It's the same as with insurance, the less healthy/more risk you are the more it costs.

With renting you might not have the upside of investment, but you also don't have to bear the "cost" of that risk

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#177
post #49
post #12

Rent, in an arbitrage free economy, should be exactly equal to the interest on the mortgage plus wear and tear on the house.

Plus principal, taxes, insurance, profit for homeowner, percentage for property manager, renter deposits, upkeep from the last renters who broke the gas lines, scratched your hardwood floors and fled, etc. You're going to have a tough time finding a homeowner who will let you live in their house for less than their costs.

> You're going to have a tough time finding a homeowner who will let you live in their house for less than their costs.

That is true as to costs imposed by the renter (breaking the gas lines / scratching the floor), but completely false as to costs the landlord has to pay regardless. It doesn't matter what the property taxes are; the landlord will rent to you if he makes more money by renting than he would by not renting. If your rent doesn't cover his property taxes, then it sucks to be him - both of those quantities are negative, but you can still rent from him.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#178

I'm fed up of having this argument in London. I rent, and pay about 2% of the value of the property in a year. I get around 8% on shares over the last ten years. Renting is an absolute no-brainer for me. People are shocked when I tell them how much return I get on my savings vs how much my rent is, especially when I tell them where I live (a 'premium' part of London).

I don’t understand why you are arguing in favour of renting with those numbers. You pay more in rent than you would do for a mortgage, and you earn less from your shares than you would do from London property price rises... what’s the upside of renting in your case?

I was under the impression London house prices rose very little last year?

It turns out it was 2.5%; low compared to the rest of England. Surely the stress around Brexit is helping depress property value.

https://data.london.gov.uk/housingmarket/

If you could have made 8% instead: good work in 2017. Not commenting on the rest, but for a 1y data point, it was good.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#179
All I know is I put 10% down, had tenants pay the mortgage by renting out the three other rooms while I lived in the other one and sold it 3 years later for 100k more than I owed. My outlay was close to nothing on a net basis and it proved to be a really great tax shelter when I got a raise.

Also I was able to set roots down and get to know the city and feel some semblance of ownership in the town. That and my mortgage never rose except for when the value of my home rose with taxes.

Re: Renting is Throwing Money Away, Right? (2015)

#180

> You hold a 5 percent fixed-rate 30-year mortgage Wait, are you Americans paying 5% interest on mortgage, whitout even counting insurance? For real?! Edit: Having looked at other comments in this thread, it looks like interest are taxe-deductible, which makes it more affordable, but that's also really weird: it means the gouvernment subsidizes financial institutions to charge American consumers a lot more than the n…

US mortgage rates are generally quoted for 30 year fixed rates (about 4.5% currently.) Rates in the U.K. are much lower but those tend to be variable rates which will increase in line with central bank interest rates when those economies begin to recover.
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