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Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

jlcollinsnh.com

41–50 of 110 posts

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

*with 1975 property tax locked in thanks to prop 13

Is that accurate? Property taxes can change

Yes, with rare exceptions Prop 13 means you get your property tax assessment locked in when you purchase. The major way to trigger re-assessment is to pull a permit for construction/improvements, which is why unpermitted remodels/additions are so rampant in California.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#42
I actually agree with a lot of the points made here. Still terrible advice. Youre always gonna need somewhere to live. Guess whats a better bet to invest in than an apartment? A house. If you buy though, check all your bases. Whats appreciation looked like for the last 10 years in this neighborhood? How are the schools? Hows the job market for professionals? etc.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#43
No one has touched on

1. Interest rates are at historic lows. Real interest rates have recently been negative. When this changes in the next decades, interesting things will occur.

2. It is time for the baby boomers to leave their houses and move into smaller digs. There is a demographic shift on the horizon.

3. The Republican tax legislation just hammered home deductions in many areas.

There are interesting times ahead.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#44
Reasons why your house is a good investment:

- Massive tax subsidies provided by the government. Seriously apalling if you think about it hard enough, but since they're available, you should try to take advantage of them.

That list is sufficient.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#45
post #16

I really fail to see how most of those points are relevant when you consider that a home is an investment you can, you know, live in. The alternative would be to rent indefinitely, which apparently we're ok with even though its not just a 0% return on investment, its an infinitely negative percent return on investment. Even if your house breaks even over 10 years, you still got to live in it for ten years for what is…

Yeah, I think a frame that people don't use often enough when talking about homeownership is as a hedge against rising housing prices. As a person who needs somewhere to live, you already have a short position in the market whether you like it or not.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#46
post #16

I really fail to see how most of those points are relevant when you consider that a home is an investment you can, you know, live in. The alternative would be to rent indefinitely, which apparently we're ok with even though its not just a 0% return on investment, its an infinitely negative percent return on investment. Even if your house breaks even over 10 years, you still got to live in it for ten years for what is…

I find myself wondering what, with a similar approach to analysis, would ever qualify as a good investment. Certainly stocks are out, given their volatility, the individual investor's inability to ever compete with professionals, the brokerage fees, and the taxation of any gains you make. Owning your own small business? Goodness, you have taxes, expenses, and the continual risk of losing everything if you become sick or market conditions change. 401K? Subject to government regulation that could change at any time; you're restricted in how much you can invest and how and when you can withdraw. That sounds terrible, too. What's left? Bitcoin?

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do both to diversify (equity and real estate). Having the property as a rental is very tax efficient as well (you get to depreciate a property that appreciates in value). Also, no one is going to let you leverage equity purchases with debt like you can with real estate. Disclosure: I own several rental properties to round out my investment portfolio.

You don't really need to do both to diversify. There is a lot of exposure to real estate in the stock market (rental companies + commercial real estate + construction), and REITs can be used to gain more exposure if desired.

I can manage my real estate risk better (IMHO) in a rising interest rate environment better than a REIT can (and I find most REITs to be overvalued, specifically O). My cash on cash returns are better as well.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#48
The author makes a few good points, but IMO most others are negated by the two he conveniently skips:

1. Your house is usually generating income (for a rental property) or offsetting the rent you would otherwise have to pay. Saying "you have to pay a lot of taxes" doesn't mean much unless you compare the numbers.

2. He mentions that property value is tied to a specific geographical area (and that's a bad thing), but then contradicts himself by calculating appreciation based on the national average. If you live in a fast-growing city then it's pretty certain that you're going to make more than inflation.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#49
post #16

I really fail to see how most of those points are relevant when you consider that a home is an investment you can, you know, live in. The alternative would be to rent indefinitely, which apparently we're ok with even though its not just a 0% return on investment, its an infinitely negative percent return on investment. Even if your house breaks even over 10 years, you still got to live in it for ten years for what is…

> which would often easily amount to less than rent. Hang on a minute there. Big citation needed, or caveat for which locality you're talking about. In LA or SF, for example, the interest + property tax + upkeep + HOA fees + closing costs + etc. very often run significantly more than rent on an apartment. And that's after the huge assumption that you can even afford the up-front cost needed to buy a house in the firs…

> the interest + property tax + upkeep + HOA fees + closing costs + etc. very often run significantly more than rent on an apartment

Yes, but rental prices also change over time, whereas your mortgage payment doesn't (although the tax deduction falls over time, and your locality may up your property taxes, but these are fairly minor components).

If you have reason to believe that rent will continue to increase (either around CPI, or in the case of the Bay Area, 10%+ per annum...), then by all means buying a house now (which produces an infinite stream of rents) allows you to profit off that view.

Another way to view this is that you are acquiring an rental inflation-indexed asset and a nominal liability, so you will profit if inflation is high enough.

Re: Why a house is a terrible investment (2013)

#50

I bought a house in 2015 (at 32) and it was the best thing I ever did. Even though I had to move away, I turned it into a rental property, and it’s earning $380 a month in profit. I’ve been using that profit to pay down the principal and add to my 401(k). My only regret is that I didn’t buy a lot sooner.

I bought a house in 2013 and sold it in 2016 for a total return of probably close to 50% -- not including leverage, after factoring in avoided rents and all costs. If you include the leverage, the ROI was probably >100%. What's more, the cash I invested was at the moment of my investment significant with respect to my net worth -- something like 33%. So this was a great outcome.

However, that does not mean I made a wise financial decision. I made a lucky financial decision, which is very different. This article is about making wise decisions, and it's very hard to reason about this from results in a single investment.

I just want to add that a lot of people account very poorly for their real estate profits. Whether that number is good depends on how leveraged you are and the value of the property, and many other variables, like your costs and (unknowable) future vacancy rates. (If you have a lot of leverage and the property is only worth a little, that's great! It would not be very good in a scenario where the the property is paid off and worth $2M.)

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