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Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

telegraph.co.uk

81–90 of 274 posts

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#81

On a related vein, do surgical procedures involve any type of quality control, where the work is independently audited? If so I wasn't aware. Quality control is such an important cogwheel of processes in many other industries, yet I don't hear much talk of it in relation to medical profession.

Yes they have process and analysis for quality purposes

You can see one example here

https://www.facs.org/advocacy/quality/phases

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#82

The advent of public reporting of outcomes after intervention for myocardial infarction (heart attack) led to an increase in mortality in Massachusetts and New York.[1] 1 = https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4368858/

A better way to make this claim would be to plot the mortality rates for the states over time and show that the rates in those places requiring reporting begin to diverge as the new policy is implemented.

They effectively did that: they compared public reporting states with other geographically adjacent states.

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#83
post #30

It's Goodhart's Law in action, this time with deadly consequences: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."[a] [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Some guy wrote a taxonomy of Goodhart's Law cases. This would be the "Adversarial Goodhart" case: "When you optimize for a proxy, you provide an incentive for adversaries to correlate their goal with your proxy, thus destroying the correlation with your goal."

https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart...

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#85

Sports athletes do this. For example players won't attempt end of the quarter half court shots since that will lower their percentages, or QBs taking sacks to not lower their QB ratings. What they do in sports is keep advanced stats. Instead of just giving a pure mortality rating have mortality rating, by surgery type.

One could break out the quarter half court shots as a separate statistic.

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#86
post #30

It's Goodhart's Law in action, this time with deadly consequences: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."[a] [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Low mortality is a good damned measure. I don't want to be operated on some yahoo surgeon who unconditionally operates regardless of risk and has a high mortality track record as a result.

If you need a high-risk operation or die, no-one wants to operate on you because of this rule.

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#87
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they just dodge the hard cases of each specific type of surgery. It's probably still an improvement though on just avoiding a surgery type altogether.

Then you track the deferral rates.

...which punishes doctors for serving high-risk population.

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#88
post #30

It's Goodhart's Law in action, this time with deadly consequences: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."[a] [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Low mortality is a good damned measure. I don't want to be operated on some yahoo surgeon who unconditionally operates regardless of risk and has a high mortality track record as a result.

okay. You have 100% of death in next 72 hours unless there is a surgery done, which patients survive 70% of the time.

No surgeon wants to do it, to not get his metric lower, so instead of 30% survival chance you get effective death sentence ...

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#89
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they just dodge the hard cases of each specific type of surgery. It's probably still an improvement though on just avoiding a surgery type altogether.

Then you track the deferral rates.

Then they start operating on people who don't really need it.

Re: Heart surgeons refuse difficult operations to avoid poor mortality ratings

#90

They need to add a difficulty correlated metric to the statistics. Maybe BMI and age? I am sure IVF clinics wouldn't offer the procedure to anyone over 35 if the rather detailed statistics they are required to report didn't also include the patient's age.

I imagine it’s extremely difficult to come up with a metric that captures everything about the case. BMI, age, tumor type, tumor shape, history of kidney disease, diabetes, where do you stop?
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