The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet • Hacker News Board

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#121

Post by sien » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 9:17 AM UTC

throwaway84742 wrote: post #73

8bitsrule wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to evolve, not revolve. Like cars did (and they're still -far- from perfect). Our remarkable bodies weren't designed by engineers, they survive now because, earlier, so many didn't. Are we smarter than evolution, because we like to think we are? Time will tell.

Cars (assuming you mean level 5 autonomous ones) are another one of those things which we won’t really be getting for at least 20 more years. 90% of the problem is solved, the remaining 10% are exponentially harder, so no one has a foggiest clue how to solve them, let alone solve economically enough to make the cars viable on the market.

Waymo is going to have a service on the road in Arizona for the general public this year.

Sure, it isn't cars in every environment without having seen the territory, but it is an incredibly useful product that can be extended into more cities as the technology improves. And plenty of cities around the world have similar conditions to what is being used in Arizona.

Low speed, AI driven electric buses on limited routes are already all over the place too.

Driverless trucks on certain runs is likely too within a decade.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#122

Post by mgeorgoulo » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 9:22 AM UTC

This sort of distraction arises whenever we try to adjust logic to words and not the other way around. It is said that this kind of distinction is only relevant to scientists. The article is very convincing though, that in the case of AI, the general public must be able to make those distinctions.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#123

Post by dingo_bat » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 9:26 AM UTC

visarga wrote: post #85

rdlecler1 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it’s not a trivial statement. He’s saying that we don’t have enough theory guiding us and instead we just spin up a tensorflow library without having any clue what’s going on underneath the hood. And I don’t mean understanding linear algebra in neural networks, I mean we don’t have a good theory of computation for Artificial neural networks like we do for Boolean electronic circuits. There is a little bit of…

We already hit a wall - neural nets are easily hacked. The field is called Adversarial Attacks and Defences of Neural Nets. There's no perfect fix yet and it is a major security flaw.

> There's no perfect fix yet

Reminds me of google's solution to their "racist" photos app problem: they just blacklisted certain search terms and images.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#124

Post by raducu » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 9:36 AM UTC

deft wrote: post #5

I'm not an AI researcher (although from my internet reading that's not a hard title to claim ;)) but I feel that ML/DL can't go much farther than they already have. The concept of "we just need more power" is an obvious fallacy to me.

I used to be of the same oppinion, but not so anymore.

I believe 3 orders of magnitude more processing power we would achieve amazing results in a decade; not AGI type of results but very close to it from our perspective.

Part of the reason is that I now believe you can simply "bruteforce" some problems with existing ML algorithms (like thousands of layers deep neural nets) but more importanly, one(not me) could test new ML algorithms that are not feasible now (I don't have any examples) and people would be able to itterate much faster in developing such algorithms.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#125

Post by dingo_bat » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 9:52 AM UTC

danharaj wrote: post #78

fvdessen wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And your body and worries are just tools that help your genes reproduce.

And your genes are just tools that help the chemical environment they regulate reproduce.

And the chemical environment is just trying to maximize entropy.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#126

Post by return1 » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 10:12 AM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #60

return1 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for the sake of argument i will go with the opposite idea - why not? Do you have evidence that scaling up will fail to produce more intelligence? We already know that the current deep networks (small,compared to the brain) produce fragments of intelligent behavior. we also have evidence that the brain is a connectionist system much much larger than the current ANNs. It would follow logically that intelligence could a…

>we also have evidence that the brain is a connectionist system much much larger than the current ANNs. It would follow logically that intelligence could arise by simply scaling up. the little problem here is that it took 4 billion years of computing and a computer the size of a planet to come up with the nifty machines that are our brains. So unless you have brought a lot of tea and biscuits I think we should really…

> 4 billion years of computing and a computer the size of a planet

That is not impossible to simulate, even if it includes the entire lineage of the humans. Also, nature prefers generalized algorithms as well, starting from DNA.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#127

Post by johnx123-up » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 10:21 AM UTC

mexus wrote: post #2

A related talk that Michael Jordan gave at a machine learning conference called Sys ML last month. https://youtu.be/4inIBmY8dQI

Thanks for sharing. I'm also glad that I met this guy http://rajeshanbiah.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/technology-predic... who is having profound knowledge in predicting technologies and bubbles

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#128

Post by taneq » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 11:35 AM UTC

euske wrote: post #88

robotresearcher wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be ignoring the many, many AI applications that are already working with just fine accuracy in the real world. They are quietly working in the background where you don’t notice them.

Such as...? Please don't go BS like "Google is an AI app" etc. I'd expect an app where AI is the indispensable component. You can make a decent search engine/camera/phone/car/microwave without AI.

One of the government departments I interacted recently here in Australia answers phones with a voice recognition system that is significantly easier to deal with than the usual outsourced-to-a-call-center-in-Pakistan systems. If this is the AI future I'm all for it.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#129

Post by taneq » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 11:40 AM UTC

TwoBit wrote: post #81

throwaway84742 wrote: post #69

The main problem with “AI revolution” today is that 95% of things that practitioners tell you it can do are just nowhere close to sufficient accuracy under the range of conditions they’d need to work in in the real world. Easily more than a half of them don’t even work at all outside a demo with hand picked examples. And nobody seems to care. This narrows down the scope of applicability to a tiny sliver where you can…

I have this idea that the only way to create true AI necessarily results in something that has feelings.

You can think of feelings as a mode-selection heuristic - most of them have direct analogues in any sufficiently adaptable system. So it's a pretty safe bet that "real AI" will have "feelings" or some reasonable analogue thereof.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#130

Post by taneq » Fri, Apr 20, 2018, 11:50 AM UTC

danharaj wrote: post #78

fvdessen wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And your body and worries are just tools that help your genes reproduce.

And your genes are just tools that help the chemical environment they regulate reproduce.

It's almost like that chicken-and-egg scenario!