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The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

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Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#111
post #81

The main problem with “AI revolution” today is that 95% of things that practitioners tell you it can do are just nowhere close to sufficient accuracy under the range of conditions they’d need to work in in the real world. Easily more than a half of them don’t even work at all outside a demo with hand picked examples. And nobody seems to care. This narrows down the scope of applicability to a tiny sliver where you can…

I have this idea that the only way to create true AI necessarily results in something that has feelings.

Not sure about what your definition of "feelings" are, but if you are talking about the perceptual system parrallel to thoughts and images etc ("I feel sad in this situation", or "I feel that this person is happy" while talking about another person) - then it certainly sounds like such a system would be very helpful in making strong AI. Just from our own subjective experience we know that for certain situations, feelings are a much better match than for example visualization (even though both often go together, visuals activating feelings, feelings bringing up visual memories/scenarios) etc.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#112

Michael Jordan is just mad he missed the boat on deep learning. Must be tough being that brilliant and at the same time get left in the dust by algorithms from the 90's and just sheer brute force. The AI revolution is here, from Google search to Uber pool to auto correct to recommendation engines, it is just a slow process.

The word he uses is "irritated" but on a different topic. On the subject at hand, what I'm seeing are significant successes on narrow niches of tasks. I'm not seeing a revolution yet.

https://youtu.be/4inIBmY8dQI?t=54

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#113
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for the sake of argument i will go with the opposite idea - why not? Do you have evidence that scaling up will fail to produce more intelligence? We already know that the current deep networks (small,compared to the brain) produce fragments of intelligent behavior. we also have evidence that the brain is a connectionist system much much larger than the current ANNs. It would follow logically that intelligence could a…

>we also have evidence that the brain is a connectionist system much much larger than the current ANNs. It would follow logically that intelligence could arise by simply scaling up. the little problem here is that it took 4 billion years of computing and a computer the size of a planet to come up with the nifty machines that are our brains. So unless you have brought a lot of tea and biscuits I think we should really…

But we already have those machines to inspire ourselves from! Evolution had nothing. That's why it took so long. I literally can't understand you people's pessimism.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars (assuming you mean level 5 autonomous ones) are another one of those things which we won’t really be getting for at least 20 more years. 90% of the problem is solved, the remaining 10% are exponentially harder, so no one has a foggiest clue how to solve them, let alone solve economically enough to make the cars viable on the market.

> no one has a foggiest clue how to solve them Would you care to cite any sources for that? Sounds like something a couch expert would say. Have you talked to every Waymo engineer?

Testing autonomous cars in areas with inclement weather would be a good indicator of progress. So far no autonomous car can remain autonomous in heavy rain or moderate snow, and no car can predict if a kid standing on the sidewalk will dash in front of the car all of a sudden. Or if the thing being blown across the road is a plastic bag or something more substantial. Or where to drive if road markings have worn out or otherwise became invisible, or how to avoid a pothole, etc, etc. All that stuff which you do without thinking, all of it is unsolved.

Wake me up when they’re testing L5 in Alaska in winter, using a car with no steering wheel. Then I might consider trusting my life to it.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are _amazing_ because they are able to correct the deficiencies of their perception with high level cognition augmented with memory of past experience. Machines can’t do cognition, and they can’t effectively use past experience either, to say nothing of doing a combination of those two things. Current “AI” is basically function approximation and nothing else. And humans do everything they do in a 20W power env…

Most humans don't do cognition nor learning from experiences well either. It is certainly DONE, but we tend to not pay attention to how often we fail. If you check the actual text of an average conversation, people are speaking past each other the majority of the time. We correct, but the vast majority of the time we have no awareness. We rewrite our memories to fit our mental schemas, to the point where someone desc…

That’s another reason why humans are so amazing: we correct so well we don’t even notice we’ve corrected anything. Our eyes see a continuos visual field in color even though we only see color in the center of each eye, our gaze jumps around all the time, and the image is heavily distorted, has blood vessels interfering with capture and nose obstructing part of peripheral vision. And yet you see none of that. We can’t individually control any of our muscles, yet we have fine motor skills that require strict countrol. We achieve through a visual and proprioceptive feedback loop, which corrects our previous memory of doing the same thing.

Driving better than a human from vision alone is extremely hard. Driving better than a human in an area for which you don’t have a 3d capture is extremely hard. Driving better than a human when it’s raining or snowing is extremely hard, etc, etc. Don’t be so eager to discount humans.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one has a foggiest clue how to solve them Would you care to cite any sources for that? Sounds like something a couch expert would say. Have you talked to every Waymo engineer?

Testing autonomous cars in areas with inclement weather would be a good indicator of progress. So far no autonomous car can remain autonomous in heavy rain or moderate snow, and no car can predict if a kid standing on the sidewalk will dash in front of the car all of a sudden. Or if the thing being blown across the road is a plastic bag or something more substantial. Or where to drive if road markings have worn out o…

So what you are saying, it takes time to perfect the technology? How is that the same as "no one has a foggiest clue how to do it"? There are many people with lots of clues.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suggest that not writing any sort of software is a good proxy for going out of business soon. I also think you would be surprised at how many businesses both do, and really want and value, software - but don't have anyone convincing to do it for them

I increasingly feel that almost every business would benefit from having someone with programming experience on-board. This comes from observing that businesses tend to have a lot of ad-hoc processes and unique requirements, for which there is no software package to buy - not without throwing away huge parts of the processes and rebuilding them in a "standard" way. However, a lot of those unique areas could be improv…

I agree with your sentiment, but I think most business would already fare very well with having someone structured with project management skills in significant leading position.

Without that, working as a programmer in such disorganized team, you will mostly spend your time working "against" them. It's like you are trying to glue things together and people will just go and and rip those glued together things apart constantly.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Testing autonomous cars in areas with inclement weather would be a good indicator of progress. So far no autonomous car can remain autonomous in heavy rain or moderate snow, and no car can predict if a kid standing on the sidewalk will dash in front of the car all of a sudden. Or if the thing being blown across the road is a plastic bag or something more substantial. Or where to drive if road markings have worn out o…

So what you are saying, it takes time to perfect the technology? How is that the same as "no one has a foggiest clue how to do it"? There are many people with lots of clues.

No, what I’m saying is LIDAR doesn’t work when it snows, and lane localization doesn’t work when there’s sleet on the road.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#119
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such as...? Please don't go BS like "Google is an AI app" etc. I'd expect an app where AI is the indispensable component. You can make a decent search engine/camera/phone/car/microwave without AI.

The problem is that the definition of AI keeps changing. It essentially means "Things computers can't do". A roomba would have been considered AI not long ago, but now its just a vacuum cleaner that moves around randomly for a while and then goes back to its charger. I'd imagine turn by turn directions would be considered AI if you go back far enough.

If we refer specifically to the AI hype of 2010s, the tech in question is convolutional neural networks. An argument is made it is oversold.

Re: The AI Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet

#120
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should be reverse engineering intelligence and comparing that to AI so that we can build up the theoretical equivalent of aerodynamics. Well, with a lot of assumptions, if believe they hold in practice, we have a lot of powerful theory for regression analysis, and we didn't get that theory by "reverse engineering intelligence". We got hypothesis tests, confidence intervals, prediction intervals, etc. So, more ge…

I see this as the MIT school of though. This group was saying that we’d have strong AI back in the 60s. I believe that a brute force math approach that lacks a larger theory of how neural networks give us intelligence is going to be the slow path forward.

I was proposing how to make progress in understanding some of the data manipulations being done now by what appears to be most of ML/AI. That is, for the data manipulations, get those from the consequences of some theorems. For an example, apparently regression is important in current ML/AI: Well, going way back, 50+ years, we have a lot of solid math for regression.

Then I mentioned that from Euclid through calculus to wave equations, there's more math from theorems and proofs we can and sometimes do apply. And we can stir up still more applicable math.

My goal was just suggesting how to do better with real, valuable applications to important real world problems. We have such examples from US national security -- the A bomb, the H bomb, GPS, stealth, phased array radar, adaptive beam forming sonar, etc.

By analogy, I was suggesting a better socket wrench or numerically controlled milling machine and not a self-driving car. I was not suggesting anything that we could regard as intelligent, not even as intelligent as a field mouse.

IMHO, powerful math with valuable applications is now very doable. We can schedule equipment maintenance, airline crews, airline fleets, workers, trucks, etc. We can have computers do the data manipulations specified by the math and have the Internet move the data.

But for also having systems that are as intelligent as a field mouse, kitten, puppy, octopus, song bird, even walk as well as a cockroach, that's harder.

At one time I worked in some AI based on some MIT AI work; I wrote software, worked with GM Research, gave a paper at the Stanford AAAI IAAI conference, as sole author or co-author published a list of papers. Here I was not suggesting anything that has anything to do with any of the MIT AI work I've known about.

For people at MIT who have done work more like I have in mind, I can think of D. Bertsekas and M. Athans.

Athans was in deterministic optimal control, and the OP mentioned that that field did "back propagation" long ago. Athans is, was, a good applied mathematician. When I was at FedEx, I chatted with him in his office on how to find how best to climb, cruise, and descend airplanes. He told me a cute story about how an F-4 could get minimum time to climb, say, IIRC, to 100,000 feet: Climb up to just 5,000 feet or so, go into a dive, get supersonic where actually the drag was less, and then go nearly vertical, all supersonic, directly to 100,000 feet.

For neural networks, IIRC there is some nice math that shows how general those can be for representing functions, and for some parts of stochastic optimal control Bertsekas proposed such a use for neural networks. There he, as usual, was being mathematical.

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