Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#51

Post by krzat » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

dandare wrote: post #7

There are two problems with universal basic income: 1/ Many people think UBI is a great idea but everybody imagines something else. This makes discussing UBI very difficult. 2/ Regardless of what version of UBI you personally support, it is probably not a good idea to give money to those who don't need it. Sooner or later people will realize that what they really want is tax/benefit reform, not universal basic income…

People who pay more taxes than UB are essentialy people who do not receive UB.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#52

Post by Siecje » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #11

praha14 wrote: post #4

I understand the argument that, once free from work, a number of people will voluntarily choose to work as physicists or playwrights or mathematicians. What I haven’t understood, though, is why someone would choose to work as a bricklayer or spend their 20s sitting in a fluorescent office designing an industrial process to make ball-bearing lubricant 0.4% more efficient. It’s that sort of menial, unglamorous labor th…

If people didn't have to work, the unappealing work that still needs to be done would probably pay a lot more than it does today.

But it might not be worth it, to make that bearing more efficient if it costs more.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#53

Post by jackvalentine » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #50

jackvalentine wrote: post #2

「The initial plan was for the experiment to be expanded in early 2018 to include workers as well as non-workers early in 2018, but that did not happen – to the disappointment of researchers at Kela. Without workers in the project, researchers are unable to study whether basic income would allow people to make new career moves, or enter training or education.」 And this is the paragraph I went looking for.

Yeah, the other thing that is weird when you read the article is that it wasn't UBI at all. It only went to people from a set that was unemployed. This "trial" just removed all bureaucracy and removed restrictions on side jobs, etc. I'm not sure what you could learn from this experiment. The things a lot of people want to know is can UBI provide a safety net for the poor and allow people to quit a toxic job without f…

Yup that's my point exactly - it's just less restrictive unemployment benefits. As you said the really interesting stuff from UBI is people quitting shitty jobs (or, working part time at shitty jobs instead of 60 hours a week) and doing something else with their lives.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#54

Post by linkmotif » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #12

These experiments confuse me. Haven't we already seen the result of UBI? Pensions, states that issue money (from state oil income etc), allowances, annuities? The world doesn't come to an end; the people don't all become listless and stop contributing. The currency doesn't inflate uncontrollably; prices don't change at all. The cost of living is unchanged (because economics doesn't work that way). All the FUD produce…

> The world doesn't come to an end; the people don't all become listless and stop contributing. The currency doesn't inflate uncontrollably; prices don't change at all.

That’s exactly what has happened. Inflation has been masssive. From food to services to education. Everything is expensive, and poor people spend their lives watching Netflix, playing video games. That’s what I see all around me.

Americans are too good pick their own food or perform such labor, and politicians of all varieties are happy expanding the national debt to support this depressed lifestyle while shitting on the people who actually do the work.

No one understands the value of a dollar. The things you can get on the global market for a dollar are huge, but Americans will buy bottled water or Gatorate for two dollars. Then they’ll tell you they’re poor. People put down $2.15 for a tiny cup of guacamole at Chipotle like that’s not completely insane. As if that’s how life intrinsically works.

People say you can’t afford housing like you could in the 1950s but if you showed them the average 1950s new American ranch home they’d think it was a shanty hovel. Everything is fundamentally inflated, the whole developed world is a bubble that shows no respect for humanity, the environment or what is appropriate to have and to want.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#55

Post by Koshkin » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:22 PM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

Right. It's like promising immortality for two years.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#56

Post by mrkurt » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:22 PM UTC

hawkice wrote: post #46

alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

It's good to be skeptical. There are a whole class of problems that are discontinuous, but it's way too tempting to label things that way.

That said, UBI _seems_ a lot more like herd immunity than most policy problems, especially social safety net policy.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#57

Post by Siecje » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:23 PM UTC

With UBI people say you are not discouraged from working because everyone gets the money no matter how much money they make. But where does that money come from?

Once you earn enough surely they will be taxing you more than you receive per month, otherwise the system would not work.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#58

Post by frgtpsswrdlame » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:23 PM UTC

hawkice wrote: post #46

alkonaut wrote: post #40

I can't see how it's theoretically possible to do a small scale experiment with UBI. If not everyone gets it, you can't see the big impact on the economy (what happens with supply/demand/inflation). And if it's with a short horizon, then people still have to plan for life after the UBI experiment. You can't give up the career you are going to need to make a living in 2 years time, just because you get paid a small su…

I am very skeptical of claims that outcomes are discontinuous in policy space. Going one step in direction A should give you information about going further in that same direction, at least on some scale of change. Clearly the people running the experiment agreed, because they designed it with the intent to get that information.

Well outcomes are discontinuous where the policies are discontinuous. There's a huge leap in the graph from 'this is temporary' to 'this is permanent.' We can't just write off the effect that has on human behavior.

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#59

Post by wgerard » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:24 PM UTC

prostoalex wrote: post #18

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #12

These experiments confuse me. Haven't we already seen the result of UBI? Pensions, states that issue money (from state oil income etc), allowances, annuities? The world doesn't come to an end; the people don't all become listless and stop contributing. The currency doesn't inflate uncontrollably; prices don't change at all. The cost of living is unchanged (because economics doesn't work that way). All the FUD produce…

> the people don't all become listless and stop contributing Well, in the US two groups that do get state distributions - residents of Alaska and those on Native American reservations - do have disproportionate rates of substance abuse (mainly alcohol). As far as seniors who get pensions, what is your definition of "contributing"? In many cases they are eligible for those pensions only once they declare themselves re…

> residents of Alaska

Probably a bad example to bring up.

The Alaska fund distributions amount to roughly ~$1.5k a year. Not quite the same as a pension or UBI. I'll probably get egg on my face for saying this, but I highly doubt anyone in Alaska lives solely on fund distributions.

Further, as noted [1], the "dividend had no effect on employment, and increased part-time work by 1.8 percentage points (17 percent)... our results suggest that a universal and permanent cash transfer does not significantly decrease aggregate employment."

1: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24312.pdf

Re: Finland is scrapping plans to extend its basic income project

#60

Post by fxj » Thu, Apr 19, 2018, 1:25 PM UTC

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #47

Things you need to live: food, dwelling, energy, transportation, healthcare. (And necessary for a thriving economy/government: trade skills, education, military) Self-sustaining would be very plausible on extremely modest amounts of income if the government subsidized the dwelling, energy, transportation, and healthcare. It may be unnecessary for large portions of a nation to work if people produced their own goods a…

I would call food, dwelling, healthcare, communication(internet) the four basic necessities. So why not providing these for free and for the rest, just tax other sources of income by a fixed rate depending on how much is needed to provide the free ones?