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Eroom's law

en.wikipedia.org

21–30 of 36 posts

Re: Eroom's law

#21
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The law of gravity is one example, since nobody knows where gravity actually comes from. Please stop this. While I agree with your overall point, we know what causes gravity (the uneven curvature of space due to the distribution of mass). You can find this out by googling "what causes gravity". It's not a mystery anymore.

That is just the mathematical description of gravity according to general relativity. We don't have a theory for how the uneven curvature of space happens and we don't have a quantum mechanical theory for gravity either (gravitons are hypothetical, not proven).

You are right, but my point is that general relativity gives us enough of a causal model for gravity that throwing up our hands and saying "It's a mystery" is unacceptable.

Re: Eroom's law

#22

I’ve heard a theory that says the era of small molecules targeting single complexes is probably on the sharply downward slope of an asymptote. If we’re lucky that will just mean new therapies which target complex systems rather than single-drug-targets is in sight. If we’re unlucky there will be a harsh gap between the two eras.

One could argue we are in the beginning of the harsh gap between the two eras. In 2012 the pharma industry contracted for the first time ever. Many industry insiders argue the traditional r&d model is broken

There is an emerging wave of new therapeutic modalities (cell therapy, gene therapy, microbiome therapy, bioelecrronic medicine, etc) but it isn't clear if these will be as significant as antibodies were in the 1980s

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2017/11/28/a-g...

Re: Eroom's law

#23
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it does. More or less every class of antibiotic was invented between 1940 and 1960. Discoveries since that period have been mostly incremental.

Possibly irrelevant correlation: This is pattern is also observed in graphics techniques and programming styles. Yet, the incremental quantitative advances continue to accumulate to become qualitative differences.

While modifications of existing classes of antibiotics are still critically important and useful, the big problem is that "new antibiotics that conform to established classes are often subject to at least some of the same resistances observed in previous members of the class."[0] They help in that they buy time, but development of novel classes of antibiotics is what's necessary to buy more time. And we're going to need a lot of them.[1]

In engineering or any scientific field, incremental progress is clearly still progress. For most other kinds of drugs, time doesn't work against their effectiveness. Texts describe the use of aspirin precursors, such as willow teas, dates back over four thousand years to ancient Sumer. Salicylates haven't stopped being effective since then.

The trouble with antibiotics is that resistance inevitably develops over time even if we manage to curb their misuse. It isn't enough to enough to develop new antibiotics, novel or otherwise; to keep the "miracle of antibiotics" alive, we need to continually to develop novel ones.

0. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4159373/

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3085877

Re: Eroom's law

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it does. More or less every class of antibiotic was invented between 1940 and 1960. Discoveries since that period have been mostly incremental.

The only exception I am aware of is this recent discovery : https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14098 Note that the paper isn't only about a new antibiotic but also about a promising method for making additional discoveries via uncultured bacteria.

Also this: http://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(17)31451-4

Re: Eroom's law

#25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is just the mathematical description of gravity according to general relativity. We don't have a theory for how the uneven curvature of space happens and we don't have a quantum mechanical theory for gravity either (gravitons are hypothetical, not proven).

You are right, but my point is that general relativity gives us enough of a causal model for gravity that throwing up our hands and saying "It's a mystery" is unacceptable.

It is not unacceptable to say we don't know with certainty -- it's faithful to science. You are correct we have a mathematical "casual" model, but that model is entirely observational. We know what happens with certainty in virtually any gravitational situation, but we remain very uncertain about the underlying mechanism of action. It is faithful and mature to recognize this.

Re: Eroom's law

#26
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is just the mathematical description of gravity according to general relativity. We don't have a theory for how the uneven curvature of space happens and we don't have a quantum mechanical theory for gravity either (gravitons are hypothetical, not proven).

You are right, but my point is that general relativity gives us enough of a causal model for gravity that throwing up our hands and saying "It's a mystery" is unacceptable.

We could split hairs all day, but a more detailed mathematical model like relativity is still just a model. We don't know with certainty why it works, what the underlying mechanism is. I would rather say it's unacceptable to tell people what questions they can't ask than to criticize a particular model.

Re: Eroom's law

#27
sounds like NASA and governmental space programs. I mean it feels like the cost and complexity of, for example, flying to Moon has been doubling each decade or so since the original Apollo days and have reached today the levels of practical impossibility. (And that state of things set the stage for Musk).

Re: Eroom's law

#28
Part of me wonders if things could improve if the resources put towards "drug discovery" could go further if they were allocated to tooling to allow for individuals to synthesize drugs tailored to their present state.

With increasingly more data available on the drugs released by FDA, EMA, etc, combined with cheap genetic sequencing and other measurements, part of me wonders if the statistical approaches with some sub fields of chemistry combined with bioinformatics could move things from the era where certain drugs are produced in mass to one where getting certain interactions with compounds to take place based on and individuals state.

Razib Kahn talks[0] about this recently:

"There’s a debate that periodically crops up online about the utility, viability, and morality of returning results from genetic tests to consumers. Consumers here means people like you or me. Pretty much everyone.

If you want to caricature two stylized camps, there are information maximalists who proclaim a utopia now, where people can find out so much about themselves through their genome. And then there are information elitists, who emphasize that the public can’t handle the truth. Or, more accurately, that throwing information without context and interpretation from someone who knows better is not just useless, it’s dangerous.

Of course, most people will stake out more nuanced complex positions. That’s not the point. Here is my bottom-line, which I’ve probably held since about ~2010:

    - The value for most people in actionable information in direct-to-consumer genetics is probably not there yet when set against the cost.
    - With the reduction in the cost of genotyping and sequencing, there’s no way that we have enough trained professionals to handle the surfeit of information. And there will really be no way in 10 years when a large proportion of the American population will be sequenced.
"

[0]https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2018/04/10/notes-from-the-per...

Re: Eroom's law

#29
post #13

As much as I'd like to avoid criticizing "moore's law", this is a good example of why we shouldn't be using the term unless the effect described is a properly scientific description of a universal truth. Both of these statements are mere observations of trends (short term ones in the grand scheme of things). Nothing about the trends observed in "eroom's law" must hold true in the future and, similarly, nothing about…

In both cases there is a described mechanism which produces the effects that are observed. In the case of Moore's law the mechanism has now been thwarted by physics, everyone knew that this had to happen at some point, but the surprise was how long physics was staved off by clever engineering. In the case of Eroom's law the mechanisms seem strong, regulators will continue to strengthen or at least remain as strong, new drugs will have a higher bar to jump due to old drugs, market economics will dictate that firms will throw money at high risk projects to hail mary out of trouble. So to say that nothing about these trends must hold true misses the point that they are/were strongly founded and could be used to make good predictions about the evolution of the economy and society.

Re: Eroom's law

#30
post #3

Very interesting. Anyone know if this applies to antibiotics? I think a lot of people, myself included, are hoping that new drugs will buy us enough time to solve the sociatal problems (e.g. heavy use in ag) causing antibiotic resistance.

I think that the better than the beatles bit might give way in this case. I'm no medic but I suspect that there are many antibiotic compounds that have failed early trials due to side effects that might be resurrected in a context where 10,000's of people a year die due to resistance. I think that the regulator might get much less cautious and the fact that the old drugs don't work may make things easier.

Also at the moment one issue is that the market for anti-resistant drugs is very small, and current antibiotics are rather cheap. So the spreadsheets show no business case, when this grows to millions of doses a year then at $1k a dose so $10k a course and over 20 years of patent life a $2bn investment starts to look ok.

State intervention should be used to shorten and cheapen that path so that we get less of the actual death without real need business up front. I read with dismay the FP9 preparation reports which stress cohesion as an objective of research funding and I look forward (grimly) to watching the waste of funds that could lead to life saving treatment that this policy will precipitate.

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