Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose • Hacker News Board

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#181

Post by youpassbutter » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:45 PM UTC

tehlike wrote: post #164

sokoloff wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For landlords, those new limits do not apply; they remain deductible, just like other qualified business expenses (which makes sense IMO, which is why I support the mortgage interest deduction, to keep owner occupants on relatively equal footing with landlords when contemplating purchasing property).

The real q is, why does government even subsidizing home ownership in the first place?

>The real q is, why does government even subsidizing home ownership in the first place?

Firstly, older people own homes and they vote. Secondly, homes are a significant part of people's retirement assets. As companies do away with pensions and as the Social Security age gets increased, home values gain in importance. So the government has an incentive to keep home prices high.

This hurts the younger generation looking to buy homes and raise a family. But the older generation votes in greater numbers than the younger people.

If you are politician running for office, you aren't going to say "lets raise property taxes" or "lets get housing prices down so that young people can afford it".

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#182

Post by ryandrake » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:47 PM UTC

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

I used to live in South Florida (Ft Lauderdale area) and it has so many advantages: warm-to-hot weather year round, plenty of water based recreation, zero income taxes, great dining and entertainment, growing but still reasonable housing prices...

Yet I still moved to the crowded and insane Bay Area because jobs. In FL I was always running that risk that if my current job didn’t work out I’d have few remaining options. And in today’s tough hiring market, where you have to apply to 100 jobs to get 10 interviews to get 1 offer, having few employers around is a massive risk. It’s why I’m forced to stay out in the SF area.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#183

Post by ynniv » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:50 PM UTC

charlesdm wrote: post #177

jostmey wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand for housing is not the problem. It's the supply that is the problem. The supply is being kept artificially low

Because if you're a landlord with significant property holdings, what would you do? You'd lobby the government not to increase supply, of course.

No, you would build more if you could.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#184

Post by kevinburke » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:51 PM UTC

Please contact your Senator and Assemblymember and ask them to vote yes on SB 827 and 828, which would make it much easier to build housing in transit rich areas that have previously resisted it - Atherton, West Portal, Palo Alto, Forest Hill, all of Marin County come to mind.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#185

Post by jngreenlee » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:56 PM UTC

taurath wrote: post #137

jrs95 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Colorado should implement some of what Hunter S. Thompson had in his platform for Sheriff of Aspen: 1. Rip up all city streets with jackhammers and sod the streets at once.... All public movement would be by foot and a fleet of bicycles, maintained by the city police force. 2. Change the name 'Aspen', by public referendum, to 'Fat City'. This would prevent greedheads, land-rapers and other human jackals from ca…

I honestly think that a more modern version of "intentional communities" would really appeal to a lot of people. Cheap housing, walk able everything including grocery stores, a couple locally owned industries or two, and the support people to support them - it literally sounds like the dream to me. Suburbs are exclusion zones, and cities are so incredibly expensive and chaotic. I'm sure there's 1000 economic and soci…

You actually just described the modern approach to suburbs! Stapleton in Denver, Mueller in Austin are some examples. These basically become high priced, close in, suburbs.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#186

Post by refurb » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:56 PM UTC

usaar333 wrote: post #148

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

Rents are flat the last three years. Values are up by over 30%. That difference feels speculative..

Looking at the Case-Shiller index for SF, I would agree it looks speculative.[1]

SF home prices went from an indexed 219 in Mar 2006, down to 120 in May 2009. That's a 45% decrease over two years.

Right now the index is at 259 and that's inflation adjusted.

[1]https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=SFXRSA

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#187

Post by refurb » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:58 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #12

refurb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were saying the exact same thing before the crash in 2007. Not saying a crash is imminent, but prices are even higher than before last crash, even taking inflation into account.

>People were saying the exact same thing before the crash in 2007. People were buying overvalued homes they couldn't afford in the middle of nowhere on subprime adjustable mortgages, which caused the crash of '07 when the ARM rates kicked in and they couldn't afford payments. This is a fundamentally different situation. Now, a very small number of elite highly wealthy people from around the world are treating America…

Do you have a source for foreigners "treating American housing stock as their investment vehicles" and that driving up prices?

That was the complaint in Vancouver until they actually started tracking foreigner purchases and it turned out it was 10-15% of purchases (higher in certain neighborhoods). That means the other 85-90% of demand was from Canadians.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#188

Post by counterpoint1 » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 2:59 PM UTC

Reedx wrote: post #109

nradov wrote: post #44

Peter Thiel claims that the majority of capital poured into Silicon Valley startups ends up flowing to landlords. https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/peter...

Yep. VC -> Startup -> Employee -> Landlord. Everyone blames tech workers, but they're not the ones raising the prices. Most of their money disappears into rent.

Landlord -> Property taxes -> Government benefits receivers, service providers and employees

The real beneficiaries are the people who gain from the increased tax revenue.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#189

Post by CalRobert » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #182

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

I used to live in South Florida (Ft Lauderdale area) and it has so many advantages: warm-to-hot weather year round, plenty of water based recreation, zero income taxes, great dining and entertainment, growing but still reasonable housing prices... Yet I still moved to the crowded and insane Bay Area because jobs. In FL I was always running that risk that if my current job didn’t work out I’d have few remaining option…

Today's hiring market is tough? I don't know what sector you're in but I think most people would say it's a developer's market at the moment. 2009 was horrible by comparison.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#190

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC

newfoundglory wrote: post #172

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle in the early/mid 90s had a grittier grungier feel. Before that, I remember when the Alaskan ferry docks were still downtown (today they are in Bellevue), it was much more of a lumber jack/plaid/fishing boat feel back then (early 80s and late 70s). Of course, my dad and mom’s impression of Seattle was quite different from mine own, as well. Change is just constant I guess.

I had to double check, but you mean Bellingham, not Bellevue.

Oh, ya that was a typo, oops, it would be hard to get a ferry from Bellevue into the sound via the canal :). My great aunt and uncle would visit us from anchorage (or Ketchikan? I was young) on the ferry and we saw them off at the ferry dock downtown.