Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose • Hacker News Board

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#111

Post by erik_seaberg » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 4:43 AM UTC

e3b0c wrote: post #34

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

Not necessarily. I am afraid that such sentiment would be priced in as well. If people are so certain about the market, the price would be led by the expectation rather than the fundamental.

The median family can't remotely afford the median house; we've left the fundamental value way behind.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#112

Post by nradov » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 4:45 AM UTC

poof131 wrote: post #95

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

It’s both. There clearly is a bubble. The Fed has essentially dumped easy money into the economy since the dotcom bust. 2008 saw another crash and again the spigots were opened. It only seemed to flow to certain areas though as top down economic policy tends to do. Now as the Fed raises rates, people can borrow less and thereby afford less. We may see zero percent interest rates forever and the government stepping in…

Proposition 13 doesn't really discourage most retirees from moving because Propositions 60/90 allows homeowners over age 55 to transfer their base year value once.

http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/faqs/propositions60_90.htm

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#113

Post by jorblumesea » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 4:59 AM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #67

jorblumesea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

When did you move to Seattle? 2011 for me. The city has certainly changed but I'm still unclear on this nebulous culture shift that has supposedly "ruined" Seattle. What was more interesting about Seattle when you moved here vs today?

2004, while I agree it's "not completed ruined", it feels like we're slowly pushing out much of the middle class, and with it, artists and other culturally important folk. Give it 10 years and the only people that will be able to afford the city is one specific income bracket.

I think if you moved to the city post 2010, you probably don't realize what "old Seattle" was like.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#114

Post by jpster » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:02 AM UTC

poof131 wrote: post #95

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

It’s both. There clearly is a bubble. The Fed has essentially dumped easy money into the economy since the dotcom bust. 2008 saw another crash and again the spigots were opened. It only seemed to flow to certain areas though as top down economic policy tends to do. Now as the Fed raises rates, people can borrow less and thereby afford less. We may see zero percent interest rates forever and the government stepping in…

There is a mooted ballot initiative which could free homeowners who want to move from the financial disincentives of Prop 13. https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/Could-...

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#115

Post by eitally » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:04 AM UTC

taurath wrote: post #96

nostrademons wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Colorado is now seen as the last "cool" place thats "affordable" and liberal (sorry screaming Coloradan's, you're next). Asheville, NC is coming up after Colorado - I've got one friends-couple that's actively moving there this summer, and a couple others that are thinking seriously about it. > I wonder what this all will look like when we look back 20 years hence There was an interesting throwaway comment in Carlot…

The one thing I have never seen yet of any of that large group is a move to the east coast. It’s as foreign as can be though some have spent a bit of time in NYC for work. I think the cultural “west” is still where these people will stay for the time being.

I think it depends how big it must be to consider "large", but there are tons of California ex-pats living in the Raleigh-Durham area, still working in tech/biotech/pharma/engineering, often for CA-based companies. Most of them arrived in NC because of CoL reasons, having sold a family home in CA and paid cash for a much nicer one in RTP... then likely a beach house a few years later.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#116

Post by throwaway2041 » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:06 AM UTC

ninkendo wrote: post #13

aphextron wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO Why do you think that, though? Is it solely because prices are rising very quickly? There's no indication whatsoever that people will stop buying any time soon. Homes are selling >110% of asking price for all cash within days, and supply is essentially fixed.

I believe the pricing growth is fueled by tech wage growth which is unsustainable. I also think the tech sector in general (especially any company that is driven by ads) is due for a major correction soon, if not a full burst. I can’t tell you exactly why I feel it, it’s more an emotional thing, but I don’t see a better strategy than that when trying to predict long-term housing prices.

I mostly agree and would argue it's due to the slow erosion of the middle / consumer class. Advertising-based businesses slowing down might be a leading indicator of a bigger macro trend: the reversion back to pre-WW2 levels of inequality :-/

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#117

Post by AceJohnny2 » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:06 AM UTC

tehlike wrote: post #91

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

The thing with subprime mortgages is, noone saw it coming. How do you know some other forces are at play in todays market? Forces that may not be true in the blink of an eye? Not saying it is gonna burst, and i see the factors, but theyw ere there in 2008 too.

People absolutely saw it coming. I remember Geithner making comments to the effect of "we aren't ready yet!" when the bubble finally broke. The Fed was already making plans to shore up the affected banks, but hadn't yet built up the funds to do so effectively.

But then it depends on which timescale we're talking about.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#118

Post by lbotos » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:07 AM UTC

nradov wrote: post #44

Peter Thiel claims that the majority of capital poured into Silicon Valley startups ends up flowing to landlords. https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/peter...

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I wonder what the venn diagram of VCs and Landlords look like. If I was a VC, you better believe I'd have some money in real estate too.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#119

Post by ikeyany » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:08 AM UTC

georgeburdell wrote: post #74

>Home price appreciation serving ‘as a kind of second job’ I had this thought the other day, actually, when tallying my net worth for the quarter. My home went up by ~$100k in value since December (hot neighborhood near Apple) and my family earned about the same amount in income. Long term, we plan on cashing out and moving to the East Coast so it's not just idle numbers tabulating.

Won't that defeat the purpose of why you chose to buy and live long term on the west coast to begin with?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#120

Post by mulmen » Tue, Apr 10, 2018, 5:11 AM UTC

jorblumesea wrote: post #113

mulmen wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did you move to Seattle? 2011 for me. The city has certainly changed but I'm still unclear on this nebulous culture shift that has supposedly "ruined" Seattle. What was more interesting about Seattle when you moved here vs today?

2004, while I agree it's "not completed ruined", it feels like we're slowly pushing out much of the middle class, and with it, artists and other culturally important folk. Give it 10 years and the only people that will be able to afford the city is one specific income bracket. I think if you moved to the city post 2010, you probably don't realize what "old Seattle" was like.

There's an art gallery across the street from me. Many coffee shops and restaurants have locally created art for sale. There are all kinds of quirky performances on the street and in local businesses. I can't even begin to find time to attend all the live music shows I would like.

Who are these other "culturally important folk" and why are they so important? Not denying they exist, I just don't know who you are talking about.

I still see a lot of opportunity for middle (or possibly upper-middle) class families to live in Seattle although it is not easy. It seems a lot easier than SFO and entirely within reach to me. Something should be done to make sure this stays within reach but we have to be realistic about how that looks. A single family home on a 1/4 acre isn't gonna fly. You're probably going to be sharing at least one wall with someone.

You are echoing the concern I hear often and I have no doubt that you feel what you are describing but I'm just not convinced that it reflects reality.

I lived in Seattle for the summer of 2009 and while I didn't explore a lot of it back then I don't think it has changed much culturally. I hear the "it's an old Seattle thing you wouldn't understand" cliche a lot too. I'm just surprised nobody can articulate what was different then.