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Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

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Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#62
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

>As Buffett likes to point out: be “fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

So...since you’re fearful, I should invest in San Jose real estate ASAP? ;)

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#63
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proposition 13 imposes a fairly hard upper limit on the growth of teachers' salaries.

Not at all. Prop 13 only has effect when houses do NOT sell. Whenever a property changes hands, which is the only event that matters wrt demand, it is assessed at current market value. Prop 13 does have an effect but only in the manner in which it supresses sales.

I'm not an economist but if property tax growth is effectively capped at 2% and teachers are paid out of property tax then any time housing price grows by more than 2% teachers are at a disadvantage to buy a house.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#64
post #43
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Speaking from a city (Auckland) where house prices have sky rocketed this hasn't happened yet.

Prices in the area I live in use to be $100k-ish for a 3 bdrm home 10 years ago. Now they're $760k and I live >30 miles from the CBD.

Teachers salaries have continued to get "cost of living" increases and we have news stories like this popping up all the time: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/102707618

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#66
post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

"We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO."

People have been saying this every single day since I moved to San Francisco in 2009. I guess if you keep predicting it eventually, you might end up being right, but its not exactly insightful.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#67
post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

When did you move to Seattle? 2011 for me. The city has certainly changed but I'm still unclear on this nebulous culture shift that has supposedly "ruined" Seattle. What was more interesting about Seattle when you moved here vs today?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#68
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're in it for the long haul, then it was a very wise decision. The bay area, specifically San Francisco, is one of the best real estate purchases anyone can make. It's geographically constrained and has historically shown to gain value over the past 100 years CONSISTENTLY. There will be some small bumps in the road here or there, but when you look back in 20, or 30 years, I can almost guarantee you're going to…

The fact that real estate is so fundamentally an investment here (in the US/in the western world) is a deep underlying part of the problem. I agree - this person made the right decision, from their point of view, and it will be a good return on investment. But I'm definitely sort of existentially disappointed in the sort of social system that makes housing an investment like this.

Me too. I would take 0% return on investment and reasonable housing costs over obscene housing prices and some return on investment in a heartbeat. For people who just want a comfortable safety net for themselves and their children and not speculation, investments should be liquid and diversified, not tied up in one illiquid asset.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#69
post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Maybe Colorado should implement some of what Hunter S. Thompson had in his platform for Sheriff of Aspen:

1. Rip up all city streets with jackhammers and sod the streets at once.... All public movement would be by foot and a fleet of bicycles, maintained by the city police force.

2. Change the name 'Aspen', by public referendum, to 'Fat City'. This would prevent greedheads, land-rapers and other human jackals from capitalizing on the name 'Aspen'.... These swine should be fucked, broken, and driven across the land.

3. Drug Sales must be controlled. My first act as Sheriff will be to install, on the courthouse lawn, a bastinado platform and a set of stocks in order to punish dishonest dope dealers in a proper public fashion. Each year these dealers cheat millions of people out of millions of dollars.... it will be the general philosophy of the Sheriff’s office that no drug worth taking should be sold for money.

4. Hunting and fishing should be forbidden to all non-residents, with the exception of those who can obtain the signed endorsement of a resident- who will then be legally responsible for any violation or abuse committed by the non-resident he has ‘signed for’…. By this approach-making hundreds or even thousands of individuals personally responsible for protecting the animals, fish and birds who live here-we would create a sort of de facto game preserve, without the harsh restrictions that will necessarily be forced on us if these blood-thirsty geeks keep swarming in here each autumn to shoot everything they see.

5. The Sheriff and his Deputies should never be armed in public. Every urban riot, shoot-out and blood-bath (involving guns) in recent memory has been set off by some trigger-happy cop in a fear frenzy.

6. It will be the policy of the Sheriff’s office savagely to harass all those engaged in any form of land-rape.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#70
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

>I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year.

It's not even about people on tech salaries at this point. Those people are being priced out of the market, too. It's an issue of foreign investment mainly from China either speculating on the market, or investing their money in the only way they can given that personal property does not exist in their country.

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