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Earlier quoted context omitted.
>We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO Why do you think that, though? Is it solely because prices are rising very quickly? There's no indication whatsoever that people will stop buying any time soon. Homes are selling >110% of asking price for all cash within days, and supply is essentially fixed.
What is the price to rent ratio?
There is a double bubble there: 1. low interest rates have been pushing people to buy houses for a decade. 2. and cheap borrowing costs pushed investors into riskier businesses like startups increasing the flow of capital in that region. Add the NIMBY mentality, and you get skyrocketing prices. My guess is that raising interest rates are going to change all this drastically before year end.
They really undersold it. 800$ per day is what it earns in appreciation, but it earns even more when you rent it out. If you have a house on the penninsula, I'd say it's time to cash out and move to the midwest and retire. ;)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO Why do you think that, though? Is it solely because prices are rising very quickly? There's no indication whatsoever that people will stop buying any time soon. Homes are selling >110% of asking price for all cash within days, and supply is essentially fixed.
I believe the pricing growth is fueled by tech wage growth which is unsustainable. I also think the tech sector in general (especially any company that is driven by ads) is due for a major correction soon, if not a full burst. I can’t tell you exactly why I feel it, it’s more an emotional thing, but I don’t see a better strategy than that when trying to predict long-term housing prices.
Why?
HUGE influx of people into the field, fueled by government programs, people in tech pushing for more people to join (why they would ever do this is beyond me, say goodbye to your salary), education in high school and younger, wide availability to learn online, outsourcing, etc... The influx of workers will simply outstrip demand once worker influx hits it's powerband in 5-10 years.
Programming is on the same path that many craft careers have been on in years past. Mark my words - it's a blue collar job in the making.
If you aren't specializing in some niche field of programming right now, you will be kicking yourself in 10 years.
Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.
I don't think people really fathom how big of a deal this is. When was the last time a group of heavily concentrated companies were so flushed with cash sitting in banks? And also who's most coveted asset was highly paid white collar workers? Wall Street in the 80's maybe?
Sounds about right. Similar around the Bay in general tbh. My wife and I bought a place in Oakland in December and it's already up 20% . That's insane .
There is a double bubble there: 1. low interest rates have been pushing people to buy houses for a decade. 2. and cheap borrowing costs pushed investors into riskier businesses like startups increasing the flow of capital in that region. Add the NIMBY mentality, and you get skyrocketing prices. My guess is that raising interest rates are going to change all this drastically before year end.
I wonder, in san jose, How long will it take until families start living in garages like in Palo alto?
Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.
(I wouldn't wish the anxiety around this decision on anyone, least of all future generations, which is why I've resolved to buck the trend of homeowner NIMBYism.)
[1]: https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/19/housing-economist-pos...
[2]: https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/11/unpacking-the-bay-are...
There is a double bubble there: 1. low interest rates have been pushing people to buy houses for a decade. 2. and cheap borrowing costs pushed investors into riskier businesses like startups increasing the flow of capital in that region. Add the NIMBY mentality, and you get skyrocketing prices. My guess is that raising interest rates are going to change all this drastically before year end.
Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.
I just bought a condo in SF myself. It was an agonizingly difficult decision that I had been contemplating for years and years before finally taking the plunge. Some of what drove my decision was that most experts don't believe that the Bay Area real estate market is a bubble [1] [2]. (I wouldn't wish the anxiety around this decision on anyone, least of all future generations, which is why I've resolved to buck the t…
The bay area, specifically San Francisco, is one of the best real estate purchases anyone can make. It's geographically constrained and has historically shown to gain value over the past 100 years CONSISTENTLY.
There will be some small bumps in the road here or there, but when you look back in 20, or 30 years, I can almost guarantee you're going to see pretty solid returns. At least you can rest easy knowing it was perhaps the safest real estate investment anyone (who can afford it) could make.