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Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

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Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#281

Post by antongribok »

singingboyo wrote: post #255
Someone1234 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subaru's system is simply fantastic and you can tell they thought a lot about the "human condition" (human weaknesses) while designing it. Lame keep assist is very subtle, I describe it like wind blowing on the side of the car. You can trivially over-power it and it will beep if you exit the lane (without blinker on) with or without lane keep assist active. The whole package of safety features is wonderful and impres…

I drive a Nissan myself, but from the sounds of it it's about the same. LDW (just warning in my case), FEB + pedestrian/moving object detection, blind spot detection, intelligent/adaptive cruise control. (There's also a lane keeping system option called ProPilot, but I skipped out on that - I don't think I'd trust it in the regular rain anyway) Anyway, my point is these things are common now, and while getting the fu…

From what I understand, Subaru develops their own. They are the only ones where there are two cameras in the front that both see in color.

We have a 2017 Subaru with all of these and it's really excellent.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#282

Post by ansible »

jacquesm wrote: post #167
rayiner wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I think of self-driving car technology, I think of all of these inputs (maps, cameras, GPS, etc.) being fed into a world model from which inferences are drawn.[1] Here, the car could have known from cameras and maps that there was a lane split, and should have been able to detect that the line following was giving a conflicting inference compared to those other sources. The question is: does Tesla actually do th…

The whole problem seems to me that to get a 90% solution for a self driving vehicle is now no longer hard. The remaining 10% is super hard and the degree to which the present day solutions tend to get these wrong is worrisome enough that if the quality doesn't jump up very quickly the whole self driving car thing could end up in an AI winter all of its own making. And that would be a real loss. This is not a field wh…

I agree with all you've said.

One of my concerns with self-driving systems is that they don't have a good model of the world they are operating in. Yes, sure, they build up 3-D models using multiple sensor types, and react to that accordingly, oftentimes with faster reflexes than a human.

However, consider this situation with pedestrians A and B, while driving down a street, approaching an intersection.

Pedestrian A, on the edge of the sidewalk, is faced away from the street, looking at his phone. The chances of him suddenly stepping out in front of my car are exactly 0.0%.

Pedestrian B, on the edge of the sidewalk, is leaning slightly towards the street, and is looking anxiously down the street (the wrong way). The chances of B suddenly stepping out is high, and the chances of B not seeing my car are very high (because B is being stupid/careless, or else is used to UK traffic patterns).

I, as a human, will react to those situations differently, preemptively slowing down if I recognize a situation like with Pedestrian B. Autonomous driving systems will treat both situations exactly the same.

From everything I've read about so far, current driving systems have no way of distinguishing between those two specific situations, or dealing with the myriad of other similar issues that can occur on our streets.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#283

Post by syntaxing »

Does anyone know if all these recent accidents are with the old MobilEye technology or the new Nvidia system? Or was it a rumour that Tesla was moving towards Nvidia rather than MobilEye (I think MobileEye was the one that didn't want to renew their contract?)?

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#285

Post by ansible »

coredog64 wrote: post #195
alex_duf wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also more comfortable for your passengers. I did a 6 hours trip with a friend continuously putting his foot up and down on the throttle, and it was the most gruelling car trip I've had I think. When I asked he said it was "to keep control on the car". I'm a patient friend.

If I didn't know better, I'd think you were describing my wife. In her defense, she learned to drive in a very different environment (dense Chicago surface street traffic).

I've got a friend that drives like that too. Sooooo annoying. Speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down. On and on. Ugh.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#286

Post by soperj »

walrus01 wrote: post #230
iainmerrick wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes! I really hope that's a joke...

I have seen pictures of iPads strapped to steering wheel in Nissan Altimas, so yes people are really this dumb. Airbag issues entirely aside.

Years ago I saw someone reading a book while driving...

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#287

Post by mturmon »

Tloewald wrote: post #271
lisper wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This seems to me to be a clearly incorrect (and self-contradictory) claim. I guess that means I was able to pull the wool over the eyes of all five members of my thesis committee because none of them thought so. > It entirely depends on your definition of failure. Well, yeah, of course. So? There is some subset of states of the world that you label "failure". The guarantee is not that the system never enters one of…

Arguing that it's possible to build an autonomous that is sometimes wrong but always knows when it's wrong seems like a stretch to me.

A system that can sense when it is in a failure mode is analogous to a “detector” in the Neyman-Pearson sense. A detector that says it is OK when it is actually in a failure condition is said to have a missed detection (MD).

OTOH, if you say you’ve failed when you haven’t, that’s a false alarm (FA).

In general, there is a trade-off between MD and FA. You can drive MD probability to near-zero, but typically at a cost in FA.

Again in general, you can’t claim that you can drive MD to zero (other than by also driving FA probability to one) without knowing more about the specifics of the problem. Here, that would be the sensors, etc.

In particular, for systems with noisy, continuous data inputs and continuous state spaces -- not even considering real-world messiness -- I would be surprised if you could drive PD to zero without a very high cost in FA probability.

As a humbling example, you cannot do this even for detection of whether a signal is present in Gaussian noise. (I.e., PD = 1 is only achievable with PFA = 1!) PD = 1 is a very high standard in any probabilistic system.

Discrete-input systems can behave differently.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#288

Post by deegles »

jacquesm wrote: post #34
edf13 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So your basically paying (A lot) of cash to beta test their software for them... at your own (Very personal) risk!

And endanger others who have decided to opt-out of the beta test. Keep in mind that in any accident all bets are off with respect to the traffic around you, even if you ram into a stationary barrier you could easily rebound into other traffic.

Also, if something goes wrong it's your fault anyways because you're supposed to keep 100% of your attention on the road.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#289

Post by bra-ket »

jacquesm wrote: post #167
rayiner wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I think of self-driving car technology, I think of all of these inputs (maps, cameras, GPS, etc.) being fed into a world model from which inferences are drawn.[1] Here, the car could have known from cameras and maps that there was a lane split, and should have been able to detect that the line following was giving a conflicting inference compared to those other sources. The question is: does Tesla actually do th…

The whole problem seems to me that to get a 90% solution for a self driving vehicle is now no longer hard. The remaining 10% is super hard and the degree to which the present day solutions tend to get these wrong is worrisome enough that if the quality doesn't jump up very quickly the whole self driving car thing could end up in an AI winter all of its own making. And that would be a real loss. This is not a field wh…

regardless of the lane recognition it has to at least detect the obstacle in front of it, it's something that a basic collision avoidance system can do

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#290

Post by henrikeh »

dwild wrote: post #257
bjl wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the other people on the road are having autopilot forced on them by reckless early adopters.

> by reckless early adopters. That's a pretty important point. We aren't going to ban alcohol are we? Aren't we even trying to allow marijuana consumption? Both of theses put you in dangerous situation on the road, yet we aren't talking about blocking their consumption. It still the responsibility of the adopters, just like it's the responsibility of the drinkers. At least doing it safely actually improve security in…

Drinking and driving is however banned.

At what cost do we need the supposed improved performance of self-driving cars?

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