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Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

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Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drive a lot with my GPS (TomTom) on and it rarely gets the lane I'm in wrong, usually that only happens in construction zones. So even if the error can be large in practice it often works very well. It would be very interesting to see the input data streams these self driving systems rely on in case of errors, and in the case of accidents there might even be a legal reason to obtain them (for liability purposes).

Don't navigation systems 'snap' to the most probable lane you are driving in based on general direction instead of your exact GPS coordinates? A good example of this I think is when driving in tunnels, there is no GPS info there, but the navigation shows you following the (curved) road.

Yes, they do that, and they rarely get that wrong.

Also, the better ones have inertial backup & flux gate for when GPS is unavailable. Inertial backup could also help to detect the signatures of lane changes and turns.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#162
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To directly answer your question: people buy autopilot so they can check their phone while commuting down the freeway to work. I was talking to a group of people about the difficulties of commuting in the Santa Clara Valley, and one guy shrugged and said, "just get a Tesla, move to the left lane, and manage email until you get to work".

Yikes! I really hope that's a joke...

What else would people be using it for? It's a "drive my car for me while I send this text" mode that allows you to take your attention off the road every few seconds. Otherwise, the system makes no sense at all.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#163
The scariest bit for me; in the comment's it's claimed that it has only done this for the last two software updates. Currently the worst I have to worry about when getting an OTA update is that it may make my phone less stable. Apparently in the future it may also influence precisely how my car tries to kill me.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla is losing out here by calling what is little more than adaptive cruise control plus lanekeeping "autopilot." Adaptive cruise control + lanekeeping + collision avoidance is available on a ton of cars now, even economy cars, and it works great. I regularly make a ~200 mile drive on the Honda system and it is 100% the whole way. But when you sell it as Autopilot instead of driver assist, people have much h…

My concern is, if you have both cruise control and lanekeeping, what's left to keep your attention and stop you zoning out? I don't find steering onerous, but it requires just enough attention to keep you alert. (I've never used a lanekeeping system, though. Maybe I'd like it, I dunno)

I use lanekeeping on the freeway, usually with adaptive cruise control as well (subaru). I focus more on the Big Picture of all the cars around me, can see further and have a better sense of who is doing what. That's anecdotal, of course, and could well be placebo effect, but I still pay a lot of attention to the road.

Plus, lanekeeping can be really annoying if you rely on it all the time. The car sometimes tends to drift back and forth in a lane a little between corrections, instead of just going straight. So: you're still steering. It's just that you're steering less and have a defense in depth against loss of focus, and can drive without exhausting yourself.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#165
post #122

Here is my armchair diagnosis: right before the car veers towards the barrier it drives through a stretch of road where the only visible lane marker is on the left. Then the right lane marker comes into view at about the point where the lane starts to widen out for the lane split. The lines that will become the right and left lane markers of the split left and right lanes respectively are right next to the van in fro…

> It's not possible to engineer an autonomous system that never fails, but it is possible to engineer one in such a way that it never fails to detect that it has failed.

This is a very good point: just like a human driver should slow down if they can't observe the road ahead well enough, an AI should slow down when it's not confident enough of its surroundings. This is probably very difficult to do, and I'm skeptical about your claim that an AI can be engineered to always detect its own failures. Further, I naively believe that Tesla is already doing a lot to detect conflicting inputs and other kinds of failures. Maybe being careful enough would prevent autopilot from working at all, so compromises have been made?

I probably don't understand AIs well enough to understand how they can be engineered to (almost) always recognize their own failures. But if a simple explanation exists, I'd love to hear it.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#166
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lane markings are confusing but GPS and inertial readings should have clearly indicated that that is not a lane GPS is not accurate enough to reliably pinpoint your location to a particular lane. Even WAAS ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Area_Augmentation_System ) can have up to 25 feet of error. Basic GPS is less accurate than that. In fact, it's possible that GPS error was a contributing factor here but ther…

I drive a lot with my GPS (TomTom) on and it rarely gets the lane I'm in wrong, usually that only happens in construction zones. So even if the error can be large in practice it often works very well. It would be very interesting to see the input data streams these self driving systems rely on in case of errors, and in the case of accidents there might even be a legal reason to obtain them (for liability purposes).

> it often works very well

Well, yeah, it's not like autopilot is driving cars into barriers every day. But I don't think "often works very well" (and then it kills you) is good enough for most people. It's certainly not good enough for me.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree with your analysis. What is more worrying is that even following the rest of the traffic would have solved the problem. If you are the only car doing something then there is a good chance you are doing something wrong. Also: the lane markings are confusing but GPS and inertial readings should have clearly indicated that that is not a lane. If two systems give conflicting data some kind of alarm should…

When I think of self-driving car technology, I think of all of these inputs (maps, cameras, GPS, etc.) being fed into a world model from which inferences are drawn.[1] Here, the car could have known from cameras and maps that there was a lane split, and should have been able to detect that the line following was giving a conflicting inference compared to those other sources. The question is: does Tesla actually do th…

The whole problem seems to me that to get a 90% solution for a self driving vehicle is now no longer hard. The remaining 10% is super hard and the degree to which the present day solutions tend to get these wrong is worrisome enough that if the quality doesn't jump up very quickly the whole self driving car thing could end up in an AI winter all of its own making. And that would be a real loss.

This is not a field where 'move fast and break stuff' is a mantra worth anything at all, the stuff that is broken are people's lives and as such you'd expect a far more conservative attitude, akin to what we see in Aerospace and medical equipment software development practices.

But instead barely tested software gets released via over-the-air updates and it's anybody's guess what you'll be running the next time you turn the key.

I agree with you that the software should have been able to detect that something was wrong either way, either it was already halfway in the wrong lane or it was heading to be halfway in the wrong lane, a situation that should not have passed without the car at least alerting the driver.

And from what we have seen in the video it just gave one inferred situation priority over the rest and that particular one happened to be dead wrong about it's interpretation of the model.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#168

This kind of video makes me wonder: what is the "autopilot" feature actually for? Do people generally like it? (I don't own a Tesla and I've never driven one.) If you're supposed to keep your hands on the wheel, and given videos like this that show you really need to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention, is automatic steering really that big of a deal? Cruise control, now, that really is useful because it a…

> Cruise control, now, that really is useful because it automates a trivial chore (maintaining a steady speed) and will do it well enough to improve your gas mileage. The main failure condition is "car keeps driving at full speed towards an obstacle" but an automatic emergency brake feature (again, reasonably straightforward, and standard in many new cars) can mitigate that pretty well.

Adaptive cruise control also helps; if the system detects a car in front slowing, it'll slow at a roughly equivalent pace to avoid a collision.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#169

This kind of video makes me wonder: what is the "autopilot" feature actually for? Do people generally like it? (I don't own a Tesla and I've never driven one.) If you're supposed to keep your hands on the wheel, and given videos like this that show you really need to keep your hands on the wheel and pay attention, is automatic steering really that big of a deal? Cruise control, now, that really is useful because it a…

I use Autopilot every day. I think it's amazing and borderline life-changing if you are like me and dread the monotony of a daily commute. I don't think most people realize just how mentally fatiguing the act of driving (constantly making all sorts of micro adjustments) is until they use Autopilot for a while and see the difference for themselves. I certainly didn't. I can now drive for many hours and feel just as alert as when I first got into the car. I was never able to do that before Autopilot.

Yes, you still need to pay attention. It is hard for me to believe that any Autopilot user doesn't know this because you learn it by experience almost immediately. People text and drive all the time in manual cars, but for some reason when they do it in a Tesla, we declare that Autopilot lulled them into it.

While I agree that you need to be ready to grab the wheel or hit the brake on short notice, I disagree about what that means. There is a big difference between having to be ready to do those things and actually having to do them every few seconds. This difference wasn't intuitive to me, but in practice I've found it to be extremely mentally liberating and true beyond question.

I've also found that Autopilot makes it easier to take in all of your surroundings and drive defensively against things you otherwise wouldn't see. One thing that has struck me, as I now see more drivers than just the one in front of me, is how many people are distracted while driving. If I glance continually at an arbitrary driver on my way to work, there is a greater likelihood than not that within 10 seconds they'll look at a phone. That is terrifying to me, but it is also good information to have as I drive -- I am now able to drive defensively against drivers around me, not just the one in front of me.

I've also found I'm more able to think or listen to music or podcasts than I was before Autopilot. I could never get much out of technical audiobooks, for instance, while driving manually. But Autopilot has changed that. I hesitate to say this because I worry that I will give the impression that I am focusing less on the road, but I don't think that's what's happening. My mental abilities feel much higher when I am not constantly turning a wheel or adjusting a pedal. I'm listening to music, podcasts, or audiobooks either way -- I just get a lot more out of them with Autopilot. I think it goes back to the lack of mental fatigue.

Whatever you make of my experience, I urge you to try it on a long drive if you ever get an opportunity. I have put over 60k miles on Autopilot, I have taken over on demand hundreds if not thousands of times, and I've never had a close call that was Autopilot's fault.

Re: Another Tesla on autopilot steers towards a barrier

#170
post #122

Here is my armchair diagnosis: right before the car veers towards the barrier it drives through a stretch of road where the only visible lane marker is on the left. Then the right lane marker comes into view at about the point where the lane starts to widen out for the lane split. The lines that will become the right and left lane markers of the split left and right lanes respectively are right next to the van in fro…

I totally agree with your analysis. What is more worrying is that even following the rest of the traffic would have solved the problem. If you are the only car doing something then there is a good chance you are doing something wrong. Also: the lane markings are confusing but GPS and inertial readings should have clearly indicated that that is not a lane. If two systems give conflicting data some kind of alarm should…

If you are the only car doing something then there is a good chance you are doing something wrong.

I’m surprised self-driving systems don’t do this (do they?). One or more vehicles in front of you that have successfully navigated an area you are now entering is a powerful data point. I’m not saying follow a car off a cliff, but one would think the behavior of followed vehicles should be somehow fused into the car’s pathfinding.

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