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Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

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Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't the whole point of autonomous cars that humans are pretty shitty drivers? If I could augment my vision with a 360º setup of cameras and LIDAR you better believe I would!

I'd say people are actually pretty good drivers. I'm more interested in autonomous for the time savings than I am for the potential safety improvements.

Tens of thousands of people are killed every year[1] in just the United States, humans are awful at driving. If autonomous vehicles are able to make driving as safe as flying it will be like curing breast cancer in terms of lives saved.

[1] http://www.nsc.org/NewsDocuments/2017/Fatality-estimates-Jun...

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#472
post #462

For all those who are clamoring for autopilot to go back into the lab consider this: I have autopilot, and I use it the way people are instructed to. I consider it a companion to my driving, a backup co-driver that has better reflexes. I am in control, and mentally steer the vehicle with my hands on the wheel with the machine. We are driving the car together and I overrule the machine when we disagree. Often the mach…

> What do you say to people like me, who, if you took the feature away, would be forced to reduce their safety?

I would say we should go by the numbers. How many accidents and deaths are there per mile, on similar roads (divided), from vehicles of similar class (new, luxury), in similar weather conditions (fair)? Compare that to miles where autopilot is enabled and we have something.

As yet, I don't believe Tesla is required to report this, and they probably won't voluntarily do it. At best, we would get results from certain states. We would never get national or world level data.

So, we'll have to wait for the NTSB and NHTSA reports and look to their recommendations.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#473
post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen a lot of Tesla apologizers talk about how it's such a bad design, but people seem to be able to dodge it successfully and so should Autopilot. It seems like this feature should require hands on the wheel until it has enough training data that it doesn't do things like smash you into an obvious obstacle in whatever lighting conditions are possible at any time .

> this feature should require hands on the wheel It does.

Yet, in this fatal crash:

> "the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision"

https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week%E2%80%99s-accide...

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#474

Biggest thing I gathered was the public safety barrier was damaged from a previous crash, 12 days earlier, so the driver basically hit a hard wall. This has more implications for the US’s infrastructure than Tesla’s safety IMO.

Plus the genius driver had a number of issues with autopilot in the same spot. He had complaints in with the Tesla dealership that his car tried to steer him into the barrier in that location, prior I believe. Something like 7 complaints filed?

Maybe he was trying to get out of his loan but didn't know the impact absorption barrier had been removed.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#475
post #462

For all those who are clamoring for autopilot to go back into the lab consider this: I have autopilot, and I use it the way people are instructed to. I consider it a companion to my driving, a backup co-driver that has better reflexes. I am in control, and mentally steer the vehicle with my hands on the wheel with the machine. We are driving the car together and I overrule the machine when we disagree. Often the mach…

Why not the other way around? You do the driving, and the computer is the backup in case you mess up? Humans are extremely bad at monitoring monotonic things, even if we are trained to do them. That‘s why trains have elaborate dead man switches to ensure the operator is paying attention. From these accidents it‘s clear that Teslas aren‘t good enough at making sure the driver is paying attention. And it‘s also pretty…

> Why not the other way around? You do the driving, and the computer is the backup in case you mess up?

Unfortunately having the computer takeover has the same issues. If it thinks you're following the wrong lane it could choose to steer you into a barrier, for example.

Chris Urmson's team at Google ran user tests at the start of their autonomous vehicle program and found that users misbehave [1] when behind the wheel of semi-autonomous vehicles, despite having been given instruction to pay attention. We're seeing that scenario play out in slow motion in Teslas and perhaps other driver-assistance programs that get less press.

[1] https://youtu.be/Uj-rK8V-rik?t=14m7s

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#476
post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like your first two paragraphs are amenable to analysis. Surely there is data out there that splits traffic accident statistics on income, or some proxy for income. Is a Tesla on autopilot more accident-prone than a BMW or Lexus? The numbers as they stand certainly seem to imply "no", but I'd be willing to read a paper. The third paragraph though is just you flinging opinion around. You assert without evidence…

Drunk drivers, recklessly fast drivers, redlight runners, stop sign blowers, high speed tailgaters... those are the demographic you have to compare the Tesla drivers to. Do people who buy Teslas engage in those kinds of dangerous activities?

Yes, that sounds like a pretty good profile of people buying expensive high-performance cars.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#477
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo’s approach is also brittle, e.g. to changes in the road since the last map pass. Tesla also uses radar and ultrasonic. Lidar isn’t necessary, just makes depth measurement easier. It’s lower res than cameras, low range, power-inefficient, conflicts with other lidar. Humans drive fine in sunlight, without a coherent IR scanning beam.

How do you know how much Waymo's approach rely on maps vs. vision? My expectation would be that maps are really only used for "macro" navigation but anything beyond that (lanes, avoiding obstacles, etc.) would be done on the spot. Do you have any public source detailing this or do you just make this claim based on your own assumptions? (Disclaimer: I work at Google but have no idea how our self-driving cars work.)

https://medium.com/waymo/building-maps-for-a-self-driving-ca...

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#478
post #408

I want to ask: why is Tesla's advanced suite of cameras and ultrasonic sensors unable to detect a big, yellow and black stationary barrier? In combination with chevron markings that mean "never ever drive here". Either should be a globally overriding signal to emergency break or turn, not "keep following the white line". If the answer is "during morning light, it doesn't see it", then they need to take the feature of…

>> I want to ask: why is Tesla's advanced suite of cameras and ultrasonic sensors unable to detect a big, yellow and black stationary barrier?

The answer to that is that sensors detect, but don't make decisions. The decisions are made by the car AI that takes input from the censors and outputs control signals.

So the pertinent answer is "why is Tesla's AI unable to make the decisions necessary to avoid a big, yellow and black stationary barrier?".

Unfortunately, nobody can answer that, including Tesla engineers, because their cars' AI is trained with black-box machine learning algorithms that are extremely resistant to any attempt to understand how they make decisions.

But, you know. I'm pretty sure they're really safe /s

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#479

Auto-pilot will put massive pressure on states and municipalities to improve road maintenance - specifically lane indicators and fixes to "peculiar" roads/intersections etc. This will increase budgets, which will in turn create massive opposition to self-driving autos by those not wanting to pay more taxes for other people's fancy cars . I travel/drive a good deal in the summer and for a few years now have silently (…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#480
post #14
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Tesla and Waymo are at too low an abstraction level for resilience. Cars need to understand roads/walls as concepts and make common sense inferences.

They're not comparable at all. Google/Waymo uses lidar and has been at it since 2009 and per https://waymo.com/faq they are "fully automated vehicle" but alas not for sale yet. Tesla's self-driving vaporware being sold since Oct'16 is camera only and should be activated any day now ? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823632597284691969 " Yes, safety should improve significantly due to autonomy features, even if reg…

>> They're not comparable at all. Google/Waymo uses lidar and has been at it since 2009 and per https://waymo.com/faq they are "fully automated vehicle" but alas not for sale yet.

If it's already fully automated, then why is it not for sale, yet?

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