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Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

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Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#431

What is happening was clear to many since the start: Tesla incarnates the behavior of his founder, exaggerating the technology that is really available right now, and selling it as a product without the premise for it to be safe. A product that kinda drives your car but sometimes fails, and requires you to pay attention, is simply a crash that we are waiting to happen. And don't get trapped by the "data driven" analy…

That is a long description of a problem that is much deeper than just marketing, IMO. The biggest issue that I see is that the AutoPilot system does not have particularly strong alertness monitoring.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#432

I have now talked with two people who have autopilot in their model S's and both said the problem with autopilot is that it is "too good". Specifically it works completely correctly like 80 - 90% of the time and as a result, if you use it a lot, you start to expect it to be working and not fail. If it beeps then to tell you to take over, you have to mentally get back into the situational awareness of the road and the…

Relevant quote from an article about the Air France 447 crash: > To put it briefly, automation has made it more and more unlikely that ordinary airline pilots will ever have to face a raw crisis in flight—but also more and more unlikely that they will be able to cope with such a crisis if one arises. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-... (linked to from another HN post today: https://news.yc…

AF447 really was not about automation. The plane’s controls have a crazy user interface. Most of the time you can pull on the stick as hard as you want and the plane won’t stall, but that feature was disabled due to some weird circumstances. This would be like if sometimes a car’s accelerator would cut out before you rear-ended a car in front of you but 1% of the time that feature was off. As an added bit of UI failure, once they were stalling badly enough, the stall alarm actually turned itself off, which may have made the first officer think he was doing the right thing. This was a UI failure.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The low sunlight is hard to deal with by humans and computer vision isn't better. In the meantime, Tesla's CEO doesn't believe Lidar is necessary ( https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s... ). My advice to the company BOD & shareholders: have him take the Udacity's self driving car online course and after the first project, he'll clearly understand how limited detecting lanes by CV only can be.…

Musk's central point is that if humans can drive with two cameras, so can a machine. And he's right . Why wouldn't we do just as well as the visual cortex?

Humans have superior intelect, even if specific performance is lower. We have experince. We learned to drive, in the particular area where you operate your car generally, with all its idiosyncorcies. Then consider eye contact, nonverbal communication, bias, and personal investment in outcome that computers are incapable of. Its not as simple as better sensors and reaction time.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#434
post #413
post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> scale of problems that Big Pharma, Health Insurance, big banks are causing thats not even a blip and yet most media attention and good amount of public outrage is fairly skillfully directed toward tech and SV. It really shouldn't surprise. "Big pharma continues shitty but legal business tactics," "Big banks continue to play games with people's money without significant oversight," and "American health care system o…

I agree with you with one exception "Big pharma continues shitty but legal business tactics" I doubt the legal part they get constantly fined for various illegal activities.

Yeah that depends a lot on what you're mad about wrt pharma. I was referencing the generic high price of drugs issue. They're definitely doing actually illegal things for sure.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#435
post #3

Gore point stripe faded: https://imgur.com/a/xHq57 Street View: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.6346515,-122.104109,3a,75y,8...

The system needs to be able to look more than 30 feet ahead. 30 feet of faded lines shouldn't affect it so much that it leaves the lane and collides with a clearly visible wall. What's it going to do in snow? Or in low-light conditions with a blown headlight?

At the very least, the system should slow down significantly and warn the driver if there's not high confidence in where it should be going.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can anyone take a company serios that sells features such as "Bio-Weapon Defense Mode". It almost sounds like snake oil and not far from something like the ADE 651. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADE_651

"Not only did the vehicle system completely scrub the cabin air, but in the ensuing minutes, it began to vacuum the air outside the car as well, reducing PM2.5 levels by 40%. In other words, Bioweapon Defense Mode is not a marketing statement, it is real. You can literally survive a military grade bio attack by sitting in your car." https://www.tesla.com/blog/putting-tesla-hepa-filter-and-bio...

Here is my reply from the discussion 2 years ago.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11617945

I think they are not testing with small enough particles. In the article, they test with PM 2.5 particles which would be around 2.5 micro meters. However, if you look at the table on page 11 of

http://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-prote...

Potential bio weapons such as smallpox, anthrax, influenza and the hemorrhagic viruses are far smaller than 2.5 microns.

Also, there are probably issues with the sensitivity of the detection equipment. If you look at the table on page 8 of

https://www.ll.mit.edu/publications/journal/pdf/vol12_no1/12...

And at the table at

http://www.siumed.edu/medicine/id/current_issues/bioTable2.p...

You will see that some of the biological agents can cause infection with as few as 10 particles. I doubt that the Tesla equipment could detect a concentration of 10 particles of these sizes.

This article is basically the biological equivalent of the I can't break my own crypto article.

>Bioweapon Defense Mode is not a marketing statement, it is real.

is false. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the evidence of Bioweapons Defense Mode working is entirely lacking

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sentence is just saying that the _hardware_ (not the software) is sufficient for "full self-driving capability". The current _software_ doesn't support that. The point being that in the future the car _could_ get "full self-driving capability" via a software update. In contrast, a car that doesn't have the necessary hardware will never be fully self-driving even if we do develop the necessary software to accompl…

Wow! I'm glad you pointed that out. It was subtle enough I didn't catch it. But perhaps we should consider this type of wording a fallacy, because with that level of weasel-wording, almost anything is possible! The catch is that it presupposes a non-existent piece of information, the software. And we don't know if that software will ever - or can ever - exist. Misleading examples of the genre: My cell phone has the r…

All depends on how likely you think it is that self-driving car tech will become good enough for consumer use within the next several years.

If we were well on the way to completing a cure for cancer that uses a certain type of cell phone hardware, maybe that first statement wouldn't sound so ridiculous.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#438
post #431

What is happening was clear to many since the start: Tesla incarnates the behavior of his founder, exaggerating the technology that is really available right now, and selling it as a product without the premise for it to be safe. A product that kinda drives your car but sometimes fails, and requires you to pay attention, is simply a crash that we are waiting to happen. And don't get trapped by the "data driven" analy…

That is a long description of a problem that is much deeper than just marketing, IMO. The biggest issue that I see is that the AutoPilot system does not have particularly strong alertness monitoring.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trust me, it's still a huge relief. A day and night difference. Try it on a long drive, like LA to San Francisco and you'll see what I mean. It kind of feels like you're in the passenger seat rather than the drivers seat, but you can still grab the controls if you need to.

If it allows the driver to e.g. reply to a text message on his phone, then it's dangerous. Either it requires the driver to occasionally take over and handle a situation on short notice, then the driver should have hands on the wheel and eyes forward (and the car should ensure this by alerting and slowing down immediately if the driver isn't paying attention). Or the driver isn't required to pay attention and take ov…

This isn't a black and white scenario. I use AP for probably 50 miles of my 60 mile round trip commute. Here's how it breaks down for me:

In the morning, I leave at 5:30am. There is constant moving traffic at 60-80mph on the first leg of my trip (6 miles). I drive manually, or with AP, and I pay full attention, 100% of this time. If I'm using AP, it's because it's at least as reliable as I am staying in lanes.

I then change interstates. I do this in manual mode almost every time. AP isn't great at dealing with changing multiple lanes quickly and tightly like traffic often requires. Once I'm on the new interstate, I get into my intended lane (second from the left), put the car in AP, and we have what you'd consider stop and go traffic for a few miles. At this point, I open the can of soda I brought. I keep a hand on the wheel, and I pay attention, but I'm more relaxed than I was earlier, when I was doing 60-80mph. At this point, the only thing that I need to do is to respond to someone jumping into my lane and cutting me off (which the AP deals with, but I have more faith in my ability to slam the brakes), or road debris, which at this speed, is not a problem that needs less than a second of response time.

There's a slow steady 40mph drive that I'm in full AP for, drinking my soda and paying attention, and then the traffic thins out, and I notice that I'm starting to lag behind cars, because my AP has a set max of 70MPH from back where the speed limit was 65mph (even though I was only going 20-40). At this point, both hands on the wheel, full attention, and I increase the AP max to 75 or 80, depending on how much traffic I'm in. I switch it back over to manual to make the lane changes necessary to hit my exit, and I'm manual until I park my car at work.

On the way home, I'm in stop and go traffic for an hour. When I'm 'going', I'm going 5-10mph. I am in full AP mode 95% of this time, and I could take a nap at this point, and it wouldn't actually be unsafe. I'm safer with AP than manual at this point, because my attention fades if not and I could drift lanes, or bump the car in front of me. Which I've seen happen to other people countless times, and which just increases the amount of time everyone else is in traffic, too.

Even the most egregious lane jumper can't get into my lane too fast for AP at this stage of my commute. I just set the follow distance to 2, and listen to audio books while I browse twitter or facebook. I look at what's going on out the windshield, but it's virtually unchanging. Like the thousands of people surrounding me, I'm slowly creeping forward, waiting on the 20-30 miles to pass. For an hour and a half.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#440
>> The company tells Dan Noyes they have made it clear -- Autopilot is a driver assistance system that requires you to pay attention to the road at all times.

The question is why it is Tesla, in particular, that has to remind its customers that they have to actually pay attention when they drive its cars. Is it possible the company somehow managed to convince people that its cars are equipped with self-driving software, rather than a "driver assistance system"?

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