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Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

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Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#321

Post by charlesdm »

089723645897236 wrote: post #126

I personally have supported them since beta (when they charged more) so I will probably pick up a share or two. They are certainly worth NFLX money. Music is insanely easy to produce, it is certain they will start courting artists directly, and if they can find an acquisition that fills the DIY punk music scene that was Soundcloud they will be just fine. They need more DIY content to go along with the curated big lab…

So, I'm part of a secondary market. I was looking at their valuation in November and considered picking up some shares, when insiders / investors were selling shares at a $15bn valuation. Now they opened at $30bn.

Where did the increase in share value come from? Just the liquidity of going public?

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#322

Post by oarsinsync »

CodeMage wrote: post #319
bootlooped wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A streaming service that has no Beatles, Pink Floyd, No Motown, No AC/DC etc is going to shed users pretty quickly. I disagree. I think for most people music is fungible; they just want something to listen to. I think Spotify can afford to have gaps in it's library. Sure, if a large enough portion of the music industry cut them off it would be an issue, but I don't think they're in imminent danger of that.

I think you underestimate the annoyance and frustration users feel when content disappears from their library. This is especially noticeable in playlists: when half of your favorite workout playlist suddenly disappears, it's not something you'll ignore easily. People pay Spotify a monthly subscription for the convenience of being able to listen to the music of their choosing, at the time and place of their choosing.…

It’s already happening, and it’s less of a problem than I thought it would be. Some of my playlists are 200+ tracks. A few songs go missing from time to time. I can never remember which tracks have gone, I just know something’s missing as the flow from song to song is off.

It’s extremely irritating, but not enough to make me go elsewhere as I can’t see any other service not having the same problem.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#323

Post by jnosCo »

owly wrote: post #317
synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

Why has Apple not started their own label? They have enough cash to buyout almost any artist.

Maybe something to do with https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2007/02/05Apple-Inc-and-The-B...

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#324

Post by ttul »

Afforess wrote: post #99
ttul wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May I introduce you to the Efficient Market Hypothesis ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis ).

I can't tell if you're serious (Poe's Law), but very few economists find EMH to be credible. Did you even read the "Criticisms" section of that wikipedia entry?

I went further and read many books on both the EMH and behavioral economics, which is basically its polar opposite. I believe EMH to be true at a point in time. One of the inputs to the price is market psychology.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#325

Post by peg_leg »

bootlooped wrote: post #316
bogomipz wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them." This seems to be a common refrain that Spotify can just "pull a Netflix." And this is very unlikely. Firstly no matter how much opriginal content they could create, if they don't have back catalog it's going to be a total non-starter for the mai…

> A streaming service that has no Beatles, Pink Floyd, No Motown, No AC/DC etc is going to shed users pretty quickly. I disagree. I think for most people music is fungible; they just want something to listen to. I think Spotify can afford to have gaps in it's library. Sure, if a large enough portion of the music industry cut them off it would be an issue, but I don't think they're in imminent danger of that.

There are so many people that listen to their ONE favorite artist all the time...I don't think that music is as fungible as you think.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#326

Post by Zimahl »

ericwood wrote: post #101
albertgoeswoof wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are blue apron and stitch fix tech companies? I thought they were just sending out boxes of stuff to subscribers, with a website/app for taking orders?

I used to work at Blue Apron...sending people boxes of perishables is actually a very tough problem to solve and there was extensive tech powering the warehouse side of things. We had a fairly large engineering team working on these problems. At the end of the day who really cares what is and isn't a "tech company"? Every company has a tech aspect to it these days.

> At the end of the day who really cares what is and isn't a "tech company"? Every company has a tech aspect to it these days.

Because the way a tech company grows and a non-tech company grows are very different. Nike extensively uses software but you wouldn't call them a tech company, because their growth is limited by sales of their apparel, which is a physical good. 'Real' tech companies aren't typically limited by the distribution of their product (other than scaling issues and the like). There's (generally) nothing physical produced so there isn't a resource problem - growth can be much greater and faster.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#327

Post by CodeMage »

oarsinsync wrote: post #322
CodeMage wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the annoyance and frustration users feel when content disappears from their library. This is especially noticeable in playlists: when half of your favorite workout playlist suddenly disappears, it's not something you'll ignore easily. People pay Spotify a monthly subscription for the convenience of being able to listen to the music of their choosing, at the time and place of their choosing.…

It’s already happening, and it’s less of a problem than I thought it would be. Some of my playlists are 200+ tracks. A few songs go missing from time to time. I can never remember which tracks have gone, I just know something’s missing as the flow from song to song is off. It’s extremely irritating, but not enough to make me go elsewhere as I can’t see any other service not having the same problem.

Yeah, it's already happening, that's why I brought it up. Right now it's not a huge problem, because it doesn't happen too often or on a large scale. Like you said, it's usually a couple of songs in a larger playlist.

Now, imagine the scenario comparable to what @bogomipz said above: "no Beatles, Pink Floyd, No Motown, No AC/DC". I'm betting all of us would be a lot more frustrated and irritated than we are right now. Maybe you won't do anything about it. Maybe I won't, either. But it sounds plausible that a lot of people will, whether they switch to a different service, come up with a solution of their own or simply revert to piracy.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#328

Post by lovemenot »

mitsubishi77 wrote: post #277
wj wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree they should sign exclusive deals with artists which would give them leverage in their negotiations with the record labels with an eye on the long-term hope of breaking that reliance on them. They won't be able to get into concert tickets at the present time in any significant way due to the exclusive agreements between Ticketmaster and venues. Though maybe the could start with some smaller acts and venues and…

>as somebody who has tried to buy tickets to a hot show on Ticketmaster the second they go on sale and watched the servers melt... I’m just as amazed by that this problem has yet to get solved today as I was 15 years ago.

Presumably it's a technological arms race in which the platform has little incentive to innovate to get ahead of the touts. The platform gets paid either way, whether fans or touts are buying. Touts however, are massively incented to keep fans away from the hottest tickets.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#329

Post by DontGiveTwoFlux »

Zimahl wrote: post #326
ericwood wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work at Blue Apron...sending people boxes of perishables is actually a very tough problem to solve and there was extensive tech powering the warehouse side of things. We had a fairly large engineering team working on these problems. At the end of the day who really cares what is and isn't a "tech company"? Every company has a tech aspect to it these days.

> At the end of the day who really cares what is and isn't a "tech company"? Every company has a tech aspect to it these days. Because the way a tech company grows and a non-tech company grows are very different. Nike extensively uses software but you wouldn't call them a tech company, because their growth is limited by sales of their apparel, which is a physical good. 'Real' tech companies aren't typically limited b…

That's right, 'real' tech companies such as Apple, Intel, Samsung, and many others can sell as many products as there are bits streaming across the network.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#330

Post by jehlakj »

CodeMage wrote: post #327
oarsinsync wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s already happening, and it’s less of a problem than I thought it would be. Some of my playlists are 200+ tracks. A few songs go missing from time to time. I can never remember which tracks have gone, I just know something’s missing as the flow from song to song is off. It’s extremely irritating, but not enough to make me go elsewhere as I can’t see any other service not having the same problem.

Yeah, it's already happening, that's why I brought it up. Right now it's not a huge problem, because it doesn't happen too often or on a large scale. Like you said, it's usually a couple of songs in a larger playlist. Now, imagine the scenario comparable to what @bogomipz said above: "no Beatles, Pink Floyd, No Motown, No AC/DC". I'm betting all of us would be a lot more frustrated and irritated than we are right now…

I’m curious. Do a lot of people actually use a single music streaming platform? As an avid music lover, I get my new doses from various services. Spotify is the only one that I pay for. I mainly use it to discover the latest mainstream stuff from genres I don’t typically listen to. But the Beatles? Come on, why isn’t that saved in your hard drive somewhere?
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