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Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

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Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#241

Post by lazerpants »

komali2 wrote: post #217
POTUS wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Help me out, I genuinely can't think of a music streaming service that came before Spotify. I vividly remember being blown away by their product when it came to market. I remember because I had never seen anything like it and literally didn't believe it could be done at that time. I was waiting for a train and could just search for any song and play it right away from my phone, no downloading, no waiting, just instan…

Pandora radio started in 2000 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora_Radio Myspace was a popular way to share music, if limited. Youtube, again though this doesn't fully fit the definition. Anybody know about soundcloud? I know I was using that before I heard of spotify but I'm not sure if it came out beforehand.

Spotify was light years ahead of Pandora when it launched in Europe. I used to VPN through Europe just to use Spotify before it launched in the US. It was a popular work-around for the tech literate in the US circa 2006. People went nuts for the service, though the cachet of it being difficult to access may have helped.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#242

Post by paulie_a »

softawre wrote: post #192
oh_sigh wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small artists are great, but music and money to be made from music seems to be dominated by large artists. Could Spotify ever sign, say, Taylor Swift?

ask yourself 5 years ago: Could Netflix ever sign, say, Adam Sandler?

Probably. It's not like he is top rate talent, he will literally do anything for a check.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#245

Post by subpixel »

sailfast wrote: post #233
bogomipz wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them." This seems to be a common refrain that Spotify can just "pull a Netflix." And this is very unlikely. Firstly no matter how much opriginal content they could create, if they don't have back catalog it's going to be a total non-starter for the mai…

How many shares do we think it would take to purchase a major record label at this point? What about a perpetual license to their content (since buying a label could be seen as anti-competitive)? This would certainly help avoid some of the down-side risk to the business. That said, their IPO didn't exactly help the company clear the working capital they'd need to do this.

Not only are there numerous labels with "must have" back catalogs, they now all know exactly how much money Spotify has.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#246

Post by isostatic »

ianai wrote: post #237
Skunkleton wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is something that has been bothering me. Doesn't it seem like stock prices are getting out of whack?

Nearly all companies I’ve researched on the exchanges have historical highs going back a couple years. This is across multiple industries (tech, utilities, real estate, grocers). It’s a significant trend. As for whether it’s substantive (ie not likely to correct), well, I’ve seen many economists suggesting a correction “soon” for years. The more worrying thing is the consumer reports I’ve read. They said people aren’…

With a decade of low interest rates, people have been investing in the stock market hoping for a better return on their capital.

At some point all bubbles burst.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#247

Post by lazerpants »

sksareen1 wrote: post #129

I wonder how you'd value Google Play Music alone based on this type of comp. Anyone have an idea of what the number could be like w/ rationale?

Apple Music and Google Play Music are each approximately half the size of Spotify (by subscriber). Assuming that the revenues for each service are similar (on a subscriber basis) and overhead would be similar if they were spun out, then you are just valuing them based on the number of current subscribers. Given the low friction in switching services, subscribers are around the same value for each service. My guess based on this back of the napkin math then, is that $15B for would be the comp for each of Apple Music and Google Play Music, though you would need to consider any debt held by the companies (standing for Spotify, or as part of the spin-out by the other two).

That's just how I think the comp would work, I don't think any of those companies are worth those values, including Spotify.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#248

Post by zitterbewegung »

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

I use Spotify more than Netflix at this point.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#249

Post by antishatter »

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

http://www.swedishwire.com/jobs/680-record-labels-part-owner...

This should be considered when making points about what the Record Industry will allow spotify to get away with. They own a lot of the shares at play here.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#250

Post by antishatter »

ohf wrote: post #171
Asdfbla wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't record labels complain some time ago that Spotify had supposedly commissioned music for its instrumental playlists (presumably to save money on royalties)? There's probably a danger that large record labels will threaten to revoke their licensing agreements if they think that Spotify may start competing with them on that front. Not sure if that will be a problem, though, I'm not familiar with the whole streami…

I'd wager that Spotify is nearing the point at which - if not already there - record labels cannot afford to revoke their license. If they can get away with it, they'll try to push some buttons, but I doubt a full confrontation. If there's any evidence against this, please let me know. I think it's interesting.

http://www.swedishwire.com/jobs/680-record-labels-part-owner...
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