Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 479 posts

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#231

Post by foepys »

adventured wrote: post #116
foepys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix could be in the same position. With Disney launching their own streaming services next year, the situation could get dire for Netflix, too, if Netflix' own productions don't take off as much as they want.

It's very doubtful that Disney is or could be an serious issue for Netflix now. Netflix is approaching - or already larger than - the size of Disney's comparable entertainment business, and Netflix is growing relatively fast whereas Disney's business isn't growing much or at all. Disney's studio division does $8.3 billion in sales. Their media networks arm, which includes ABC & ESPN, does $23 billion. Netflix will hi…

I don't think you understand how much power Disney has. They own all popular superhero movies. Nearly all well-known children's movies are owned by them. Star Wars now is their IP. Netflix has what? House of Cards (which was discontinued)? 30 other TV shows that range from okay to "people talk about it once or twice to their friends"? 5 movies that are produced slightly higher than a TV show with mostly mediocre ratings?

Families with young children will subscribe to Disney's service almost guaranteed, and since a few years ago Disney has enough content for the parents, too. Why pay for two or three streaming services? Maybe Disney is enough. Disney's portfolio will also not shrink like Netflix' does often due to expiring licensing contracts but steadily extend over time.

Netflix might grow like crazy currently but they are massively in debt due to their movie making and their startup-like growth will eventually stop. As a Netflix subscriber I wish them the very best but I really, really hope they are aware of Disney and will be able to keep up.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#232

Post by bogomipz »

jklinger410 wrote: post #102
komali2 wrote: post #47

I'm not quite clear on why people are choosing spotify over google play music - to me the google option is superior in UI and offerings (including ad-free youtube). Am I missing something? Is it just one runs better on iPhones or is more hip (like why people choose snapchat over instagram or something)?

As someone who just made this choice, let me add some insight. - My friends use Spotify - Larger library - Well made playlists - Social feed In the end, they are very similar products. I feel that Spotify has a huge head start on Google here, and it shows. The more mature product is Spotify. I think Google can't really compete in terms of curation and popularity. Really, the edge cases of "music that is not on Spotif…

>"Larger library"

Uhm no they are all licensing the same content from the same 4 entities.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#233

Post by sailfast »

bogomipz wrote: post #222
_zachs wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Spotify tried poaching higher-level strategy people from Netflix.

>"Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them." This seems to be a common refrain that Spotify can just "pull a Netflix." And this is very unlikely. Firstly no matter how much opriginal content they could create, if they don't have back catalog it's going to be a total non-starter for the mai…

How many shares do we think it would take to purchase a major record label at this point? What about a perpetual license to their content (since buying a label could be seen as anti-competitive)? This would certainly help avoid some of the down-side risk to the business. That said, their IPO didn't exactly help the company clear the working capital they'd need to do this.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#234

Post by 089723645897236 »

matwood wrote: post #209
089723645897236 wrote: post #126

I personally have supported them since beta (when they charged more) so I will probably pick up a share or two. They are certainly worth NFLX money. Music is insanely easy to produce, it is certain they will start courting artists directly, and if they can find an acquisition that fills the DIY punk music scene that was Soundcloud they will be just fine. They need more DIY content to go along with the curated big lab…

I'm as bearish as you are bullish. Spotify is getting squeezed with record labels on one side and Google/Apple (now at 38M subs compared to Spotifys 71M subs) on the other. I also do not think the Spotify situation is anything like Netflix. First, Netflix is an add-on service for most people that compliments other video services. OTOH, few people will have multiple music streaming services. This leads to a few issues…

The old ways are going away.

Where is the relevance of the label system now that producers can master and release tracks directly digital with no pressing time at all? Gucci Mane is great example of a hugely popular artist who released track after track as fast as he could grind them out, for years (decades now! go count how many mixtapes the guy has made). This is the new normal, hyper creativity and high speed production. Pop cylces are like 100x as fast. You're telling me some old white dudes in suits can A&R faster than teenagers can hashtag and invent there way into new genres and music with their laptops. Yeah right. Dinosaurs.

It was dead with Mp3s and the internet and it's just still gasping along like all the old media giants. Smaller and smaller labels are able to survive these days, finding more and more niche audiences. Music has gotten more diverse in the last 17 years and you can tell. Genres launch and burn out in months now, or develop a cult fan base and continue on for years (ICP still tours this is like my perfect example of trash that still has fans).

I'm not saying Spotify is the king but people using "the labels" as a threat, come on, we all know what disruption means. Bandcamp and Soundcloud and even Youtube have runaround the label system.

The one thing I'll grant you is that maybe subscription fees aren't enough to keep the infrastructure going. This is possible. But the big pile of data is certainly worth something now and in the future, and the ability to scoop trends might be the sword that tames whats left of the big labels monopoly.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#236

Post by dragonwriter »

unethical_ban wrote: post #228
komali2 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pandora radio started in 2000 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandora_Radio Myspace was a popular way to share music, if limited. Youtube, again though this doesn't fully fit the definition. Anybody know about soundcloud? I know I was using that before I heard of spotify but I'm not sure if it came out beforehand.

Pandora wasn't on demand until very recently. It was "station only". Myspace def. was limited and didn't have full catalogs of all music in any scope approaching Spotify. Youtube is video that has music, and can't be conveniently used on mobile or used for music discovery explicitly. Soundcloud is actually the closest to what I meant, but it obviously isn't used for record-label music distribution en masse.

> Youtube is video that has music,

True.

> and can't be conveniently used on mobile

I disagree, but that's highly subjective.

> or used for music discovery explicitly.

It can be, but the YT Music app only was launched in 2015.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#237

Post by ianai »

Skunkleton wrote: post #160
isostatic wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What that says about Spotify's valuation is another thing

This is something that has been bothering me. Doesn't it seem like stock prices are getting out of whack?

Nearly all companies I’ve researched on the exchanges have historical highs going back a couple years. This is across multiple industries (tech, utilities, real estate, grocers). It’s a significant trend. As for whether it’s substantive (ie not likely to correct), well, I’ve seen many economists suggesting a correction “soon” for years.

The more worrying thing is the consumer reports I’ve read. They said people aren’t saving money in 401ks, nor even savings accounts. This could indicate high confidence in the market. Or, it could indicate a lack of income to save. I’ve read reports indicating the later and not the former - specifically reports of people working multiple jobs to afford the basics.

If that’s the case then luxury goods and services should be commensurately lower valued. But they’re they are not.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#238

Post by fullshark »

ohf wrote: post #171
Asdfbla wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't record labels complain some time ago that Spotify had supposedly commissioned music for its instrumental playlists (presumably to save money on royalties)? There's probably a danger that large record labels will threaten to revoke their licensing agreements if they think that Spotify may start competing with them on that front. Not sure if that will be a problem, though, I'm not familiar with the whole streami…

I'd wager that Spotify is nearing the point at which - if not already there - record labels cannot afford to revoke their license. If they can get away with it, they'll try to push some buttons, but I doubt a full confrontation. If there's any evidence against this, please let me know. I think it's interesting.

I wonder what happened behind the scenes to get Taylor Swift on Spotify. I think that was a major test.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#239

Post by skadamat »

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

This Exponent episode on Spotify is excellent and they discuss how they don't have quite the same power as Netflix but still more than people appreciate - http://exponent.fm/episode-144-90s-alt-forever/

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#240

Post by myroon5 »

ikeaman wrote: post #29
zer00eyz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value, well it is "investor demand" The going public part -- well that was foretold with their last round of financing (it was a condition) and this was a strange way to do it. You may love the product but will it last is the question. If I were going to bet I would say that 5 years down the road someone buys it for pennies on the dollar or it goes bankrupt due to toxic debt. I wonder what the short position is o…

I know they didn't go through a traditional IPO model, but from what I understand there's always a certain amount of days imposed by the SEC to restrict short selling on novel securities.

Found this idea interesting and looked into it and found this:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/062905.asp

Looks like it's allowed, but difficult

Post reply on HN