Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B • Hacker News Board

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#201

Post by wilsonnb » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:01 PM UTC

_zachs wrote: post #168

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Spotify tried poaching higher-level strategy people from Netflix.

Starting their own label is biting the hand that feeds them, though. They need the libraries that the major labels have in order to stay in business.

Perhaps when they're not competing as heavily with Apple and to a lesser extent Google they could start their own label and the major labels would just have to deal with it, but I don't think it's a realistic course of action until then.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#202

Post by exclusiv » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:02 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #116

foepys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix could be in the same position. With Disney launching their own streaming services next year, the situation could get dire for Netflix, too, if Netflix' own productions don't take off as much as they want.

It's very doubtful that Disney is or could be an serious issue for Netflix now. Netflix is approaching - or already larger than - the size of Disney's comparable entertainment business, and Netflix is growing relatively fast whereas Disney's business isn't growing much or at all. Disney's studio division does $8.3 billion in sales. Their media networks arm, which includes ABC & ESPN, does $23 billion. Netflix will hi…

Yeah I agree that Disney won't be a serious issue for Netflix. You may see some users cut Hulu or Prime out and add Disney but Netflix is still in a good place.

> Apples to apples in terms of where they compete, Netflix will be comparable to or larger than Disney in size in 2018 or 2019.

For share of streaming wallet yes; but they hover at only about 5% of net income. So Disney doesn't need to be anywhere near the subscriber amount to reinvest heavily in content and acquisition. Also - Netflix has the US mostly saturated so they have to create or sign content for the various international markets. While Disney already has great content with global appeal.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#203

Post by rainbowmverse » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

chime wrote: post #193

rainbowmverse wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bandcamp lets me download lists of people who've bought my music and of people who follow my profile. This is because they understand the business is mine , and they're simply a service provider for that business. Even their subscription system runs right through the musician's own Stripe account, so you can always take your subscriptions elsewhere. I don't have any reason to trust that a VC-fueled monster like Spoti…

Apologies if I come across as harsh but as a consumer, I would prefer my consumption activities to remain as private as possible. In light of FB news, I don't think even some Options > Privacy Settings on Bandcamp would be sufficient since most people wouldn't do it. I hope Bandcamp is opt-in for this info.

It is opt-in if you pay for it, but almost no one leaves it unchecked. There's also the option to not require an email for free downloads.

Often these are people I've sent from somewhere else, and we talk regularly. It's not like with Facebook where it's a faceless corporation unless you're spending enough on ads to get an account specialist.

They generally knew me before they gave me money. I'm not collecting any data on them other than the email. I don't even run analytics on web pages I control. I wouldn't even know what to do with it that would tell me anything I don't already know, or that I couldn't get by just asking.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#204

Post by lambda_lover » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

exclusiv wrote: post #185

ChuckMcM wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree, if you look at the way Netflix pushes their own content over what used to be entirely studio movies and network TV shows you can see a current example of how this plays out. I was thinking that if Spotify kept the same experience for listeners that they had now in order to grow their subscription base, and just reported higher earnings for the artists they had signed versus ones signed to a 'differe…

Don't you think that as long as it's good users won't care? Netflix would likely have succeeded without originals but would have been nowhere near as pervasive. People were tired of the network crap and wanted content accessible everywhere. They delivered on those. Good content is good content. For music - it's even better if it's not yet well known because for some reason people think more highly of themselves for b…

I don't understand the appeal of this model. Do you really want to have to subscribe to 5 different streaming music services, one per label, just to listen to all your favorite artists?

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#205

Post by redorb » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

_zachs wrote: post #168

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

Starting their own label is exactly what they need to do to remain competitive. It's exactly what Netflix ended up doing and I think it's turning out pretty well for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Spotify tried poaching higher-level strategy people from Netflix.

I don't feel we're at the point of saying 'it's turning out well' for Netflix. For sure on the awards side of things and quality shows etc... but haven't they raised billions upon billions in debt to make these shows?

Their execution on doing their own content has been great. However the long term value of these movies / shows still has to prove out in profits at some point.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#206

Post by POTUS » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

kgwgk wrote: post #153

unethical_ban wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spotify was first for on-demand streaming in the modern era, even before Google or Apple Music. Its radio/recommendations are better than Pandora, and I haven't tried others. I think Spotify's UI is fantastic, and its multi-device awareness is functional and intuitive. To your point, Google does have ad-free Youtube, but the ads don't bother me enough/I don't watch enough Youtube for it to impact me like it does with…

> Spotify was first for on-demand streaming in the modern era I guess that’s true if you define the “modern era” as “starting with Spotify”.

Help me out, I genuinely can't think of a music streaming service that came before Spotify.

I vividly remember being blown away by their product when it came to market. I remember because I had never seen anything like it and literally didn't believe it could be done at that time. I was waiting for a train and could just search for any song and play it right away from my phone, no downloading, no waiting, just instant music. I was very sceptical beforehand but was instantly sold.

Did I miss another service that did something even remotely similar before Spotify did it?

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#207

Post by lmm » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:04 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #47

I'm not quite clear on why people are choosing spotify over google play music - to me the google option is superior in UI and offerings (including ad-free youtube). Am I missing something? Is it just one runs better on iPhones or is more hip (like why people choose snapchat over instagram or something)?

Google's service was late to the party and feels like an afterthought. And Google has a pretty big history of shuttering products that don't get big, so I wouldn't want to trust to keeping my music there. (Spotify could of course fail, but is unlikely to stop offering a music service short of them going bankrupt).

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#208

Post by wilsonnb » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:06 PM UTC

ohf wrote: post #171

Asdfbla wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't record labels complain some time ago that Spotify had supposedly commissioned music for its instrumental playlists (presumably to save money on royalties)? There's probably a danger that large record labels will threaten to revoke their licensing agreements if they think that Spotify may start competing with them on that front. Not sure if that will be a problem, though, I'm not familiar with the whole streami…

I'd wager that Spotify is nearing the point at which - if not already there - record labels cannot afford to revoke their license. If they can get away with it, they'll try to push some buttons, but I doubt a full confrontation. If there's any evidence against this, please let me know. I think it's interesting.

Spotify's market share is currently being attacked on both ends.

Apple Music is supposedly set to surpass Spotify in number of paid subscribers this summer.

Youtube has always had more free listeners than Spotify, as far as I know.

It's not at all clear who the major players in the music streaming business will be five years from now, which means that all of the power remains with the owners of the music that people want to listen to. AKA the major record labels.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#209

Post by matwood » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:07 PM UTC

089723645897236 wrote: post #126

I personally have supported them since beta (when they charged more) so I will probably pick up a share or two. They are certainly worth NFLX money. Music is insanely easy to produce, it is certain they will start courting artists directly, and if they can find an acquisition that fills the DIY punk music scene that was Soundcloud they will be just fine. They need more DIY content to go along with the curated big lab…

I'm as bearish as you are bullish. Spotify is getting squeezed with record labels on one side and Google/Apple (now at 38M subs compared to Spotifys 71M subs) on the other.

I also do not think the Spotify situation is anything like Netflix. First, Netflix is an add-on service for most people that compliments other video services. OTOH, few people will have multiple music streaming services. This leads to a few issues for Spotify:

1) If Spotify starts its own label, and the other labels pull their music in retaliation, Spotify is done.

2) Back catalogs and current big name artists/content is a must in music streaming - a completely different situation than Netflix was ever in. DIY punk will not carry Spotify, neither will becoming a niche DIY label.

Given Spotify's current loses I just don't see how they turn profitable. Can Spotify turn the 90M non-paying users into subscriptions?

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#210

Post by rhizome » Tue, Apr 03, 2018, 7:10 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #74

synaesthesisx wrote: post #27

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

> Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels For now. They have a large enough reach to essentially "become" a major record label, all they need is to start signing artists to contracts.

I'm not aware of many distributors that have successfully made the jump to labelhood. Caroline is the only one I can think of right now.