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Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

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Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#111
post #47

I'm not quite clear on why people are choosing spotify over google play music - to me the google option is superior in UI and offerings (including ad-free youtube). Am I missing something? Is it just one runs better on iPhones or is more hip (like why people choose snapchat over instagram or something)?

I use Google Music on an iPhone and iPad with a Chromecast Audio at home and could not be happier with the setup.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#112
I am a closeted hobbyist musician in a rather small niche (contemporary christian music in Spanish LOL)but I don't want to live off my music. I just want to be heard by somebody. And today, trough distrokid plus spotify this is sooo posible. Which wouldn't have been in my wildest of dreams 20 years ago when I wanted to start a band with my friends. Or even 10, when I toured with a small time ska band. And since my goal is being heard and not profit I would be glad to pay for listeners.

And I don't think I'm the only one.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#113

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

> Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could potentially start their own "label" and promote their own artists that sign on. Small/independent musicians could see more exposure and Spotify can deliver more music tailored for individual tastes. I've personally found myself listening to lots of small/indie artists as a result of their algorithms, to the point that thes…

I use both for recommendations still. They both have their weaknesses. I’d probably lean toward Spotify if I had to now but I’m perfectly happy using both.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#115

I am a closeted hobbyist musician in a rather small niche (contemporary christian music in Spanish LOL)but I don't want to live off my music. I just want to be heard by somebody. And today, trough distrokid plus spotify this is sooo posible. Which wouldn't have been in my wildest of dreams 20 years ago when I wanted to start a band with my friends. Or even 10, when I toured with a small time ska band. And since my go…

> a rather small niche (contemporary christian music in Spanish LOL)

I would have expected this to be a very large niche? How do the Latin American / Spanish markets treat Christian music?

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#116
post #36

I do love Spotify as a product, however I don't think it will scale the same way Netflix does. Spotify is at the mercy of major record labels, and as their books become more transparent the record labels will squeeze every dollar they can for licensing. That is, unless they find a way to upend the record industry entirely. Spotify has a unique position with their amazing discovery/recommendations engine- they could p…

Netflix could be in the same position. With Disney launching their own streaming services next year, the situation could get dire for Netflix, too, if Netflix' own productions don't take off as much as they want.

It's very doubtful that Disney is or could be an serious issue for Netflix now.

Netflix is approaching - or already larger than - the size of Disney's comparable entertainment business, and Netflix is growing relatively fast whereas Disney's business isn't growing much or at all.

Disney's studio division does $8.3 billion in sales. Their media networks arm, which includes ABC & ESPN, does $23 billion.

Netflix will hit ~$14-$15 billion in sales this year. Apples to apples in terms of where they compete, Netflix will be comparable to or larger than Disney in size in 2018 or 2019.

Five years from now Disney isn't likely to be much larger than they are today (just look at their growth the last few years, flat to minimum). Netflix will very likely be over $25 billion in sales at that point (which would plausibly be larger than Disney's largest business, the media networks group).

At the scale Netflix has reached, every dollar of new growth that Netflix is obtaining is taking some bit of revenue away from Disney. Disney is going to mostly cannabilize themselves in switching to their own streaming service, including the mess at ESPN (the end of the hyper lucrative, subsidized cable & satellite subscribers that have been artificially fattening Disney's entertainment wallet for years).

Disney is mostly in a scenario of attempting to hold their ground. The same place Walmart is in with Amazon and for the exact same reason (minimum overall market expansion, low consumer spending growth across the developed world, while the new competitor is starting to eat your existing house).

Interestingly another similarity between those situations: Amazon is willing to compete at near zero profit generation in retail to pursue sales growth, which is brutal to an established giant like Walmart who has a huge investor base that expects them to generate considerable profits every year. Walmart can't just drop their profits dramatically to compete, their stock would implode. Disney is facing the same storm: Netflix operates at a level of minimal profit (~4%-5% net income margins), whereas Disney's long-established shareholders expect rich profits and a dividend (Disney typically sees 10%-20% margins in their entertainment groups, with a 16% overall net income margin). Netflix is willing to plow almost every dollar back into content production and licensing, and their shareholders cheer that on so long as the top-line growth continues.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#117

Can it be a problem for Spotify that it will be hard for them to increase the revenue they extract even from the most loyal customers? If streaming music becomes a commodity and price sensitive people switch to competing services what will happen? Some companies like Apple are in nice position, because they can just sell more stuff to the loyal customers. Phone, pad and watch instead of just phone. And then more expe…

Streaming music kind of already is a commodity and the main thing that keeps users tethered to a service are playlists. I'm sure Spotify could eventually raise prices a bit but obviously only so much.

I think their biggest threat would be Amazon getting their music service in order and baking the current paid version into the cost of a Prime membership.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that the average paid Spotify user is actually listening for hours at a time, while they are working or driving. I don't think people are turning it on and off a few songs at a time.

The point that it's a different consumption model is still valid and interesting, though. Nobody with a long commute (until self-driving is solid) is/should be watching Netflix to pass the time. Audio-only is feasible, though. Same goes for the gym and during the day at work. Music is common and acceptable, but video is definitely more of a leisure activity since it monopolizes your attention. Do I think Spotify has…

I understand what you're saying, but a huge number of people commute by rail or bus (perhaps more so outside of the US, I don't know). Watching video on the Tube (London Underground) is fairly common, as it is on commuter rail into London

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#119
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personalized playlists, artist radios etc. The point is you don't have to sift because they do it for you.

The GP's post was implying that it's easier to bypass traditional gatekeepers (labels) by self-publishing on Spotify. I don't see how either of your recommendations solves the problem of the flood of self-published releases in a "labels are no more" scenario.

Finding music you like among all the competing possibilities is Spotify's strong point.

Re: Spotify opens on NYSE, valuing company at almost $30B

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or purchase some existing labels. Warner, which is about 20% of the global market, was worth $3.3b -- 11% of spotify -- in 2011 [1] If I read that correctly, it implies the bulk of the recording industry is worth less than Spotify. 1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-warnermusic/blavatniks-ac...

People tend to overestimate the size of the music and movie industries, apple and google could buy them outright with change from their couch cushions.

What that says about Spotify's valuation is another thing
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