Earlier quoted context omitted.
"the autopilot did something a human driver who was paying attention would never do" "this isn't an average accident statistic, a lapse in attention or evasive maneuvering. " "That's not a mistake a healthy human will make." Almost every driver thinks they're significantly better than average. Few are. If a human driver's lapse of attention causes a similar crash, how much less of a tragedy is it just because we can…
> Almost every driver thinks they’re significantly better than average. Few are. Actually, about half of drivers are better than average.
An Update on Last Week’s Accident
401–410 of 447 posts
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#402As far as the autopilot previously giving several audible and visual warnings previously in the drive, and not detecting his hands on the wheel 6 seconds prior to the crash...
The Tesla model S detection of hands on the steering wheel is, in my experience, not very reliable. It often detects my hands off the wheel if I'm holding it lightly, ready to take over. And it often detects me taking control and disengages if I am holding it firmly. And if I'm paying attention to traffic, I will about a fifth of the time not see the visual warning in the dash.
These additional pieces of data can't really provide information on whether the driver was paying attention.
However, I am really curious about the reports that this driver had several times reported to Tesla that the autopilot was trying to drive him into this barrier. If so, I wonder why Tesla hasn't reported that fact. And why the driver would be using autopilot in that area at all, let alone not paying attention while doing so.
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#403Earlier quoted context omitted.
Note: Tesla is comparing the fatality rate of autopilot-equipped cars with the average accident rate. They are NOT only counting miles where autopilot is used, they are counting all miles driven by their cars. It could be that Tesla drivers are inherently safer than the general population, or that the cars themselves are much safer. What they are not doing (at least with the data) is making a statistical claim about…
That's a very good point. But it raises a new question, why didn't Tesla compare the safety record of Teslas with Autopilot against Teslas without Autopilot.
They have done so. As mentioned in their previous blog post, Tesla's crash rate was reduced by 40% after introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA.
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#404Earlier quoted context omitted.
Eh, you can't cherry pick specific (model, year) combinations after the fact without overfitting. You expect some variation in deaths per (model, year) and by searching for the least deadly ones, you'll dramatically influence your estimate simply because you used a maximizing search instead of a broad survey of a-priori safe models.
This is totally true, and I agree; I tried to guard against this at the end with the "I think this is enough to state a hypothesis , which would then need to be tested.." paragraph. However - the same is true for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 model XC90s, and they are just one of 10 models that had no fatalities in those four model years in the study. I just picked that year and model to get one data point for mileage to co…
At a minimum it indicates that Tesla's numbers do not seem exceptionally safe, even if you can't say they're less safe than comparable competitors either.
Given the low number of incidents, you probably want to be looking at something other that fatalities to get a large enough pool of incidents to reduce the impact pure chance; at least in addition to actual fatalities. It's not going to be an easy comparison, that's for sure.
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#405Earlier quoted context omitted.
> We expect Tesla vehicles to have far fewer accidents than the mean US vehicle per mile, We do? Is there a cite for that? It seems to me that driver of new luxury vehicles are disproportionately aggressive and unsafe, actually. Has this been studied? If your going to make an argument for bad statistics, you need to practice good science yourself.
The simplest argument here is that Tesla's are new vehicles, the total US fleet average age is much older than any Tesla on the road today and driver/passenger fatalities tend to be higher in older cars because they have fewer safety features.
higher in older vehicles
This seems intuitively that it would be true, but are there any stats on car age and accident frequency? Also where is the line on old? Vehicles made in the last 5-10 years will share most safety features, with all but a small minority of newer cars having some cutting edge. I'll admit I had been thinking of fleet age from the state of maintenance, but safety feature is a fascinating angle as well.. And the article you link in another comment was a fascinating read too, thanks!
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#406Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yup this also mean that Tesla's radar and camera systems had 5 seconds to realize it was driving straight into an unmoving concrete barrier and did nothing...
What's really odd is, in my Subaru which has eyesight, if I drove straight towards that barrier the breaks would engage. Eyesight uses two visual cameras, about two feet apart, and uses the parallax between them to judge depth/distance (in the same way human eyesight judges depth). So even if Tesla's autopilot steered the vehicle towards that divider, shouldn't the auto-braking system have engaged to avert the accide…
In the case of the truck, it was established that neither the driver nor the cameras would have identified the side of the trailer against the sky, and it's still ultimately the driver's responsibility to be alert and avoid such crashes. See the report here: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#407Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to insurance adjusters, age correlates with lower accident rates.
Lower accident rates, or a lower percentage of injury or fatal accidents? I find it hard to believe 80 year olds are getting into fewer accidents than 40 year olds unless it’s because they drive less frequently.
Which would be fine for an insurer of course. Heck, even if they got into more incidents, but the incidents were cheaper, that would be fine for an insurer too.
And not all markets are equally competitive. Just because insurance rates differ doesn't mean risks necessarily do the same way. And let's not forget that while insurers are professional risk assessors that doesn't mean they're infallible either, or immune to other distortions (e.g. pass-the-buck subprime mortgage kind of issues).
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#408Reading between the lines:
> The Tesla brand name takes this seriously. Question the headlines, opinions, etc.
> You are safe using Tesla. What happened to this person won't happen to you.
> The driver made some questionable decisions; the blame isn't uniquely Tesla's. Other safety mechanisms not under Tesla's control also failed.
> Statistically, Tesla Autopilot is safer than not using Autopilot.
> We accept that we will not be able to prevent all deaths. You need to too. Telsa has saved lives in addition to taking them. Focus on this please.
> We care about safety.
Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#409There have been too many times when driving that I've needed to visually make eye contact with either another driver or pedestrian in order to decide how to proceed. Can an autopilot differentiate between a 6 year old chasing a ball into the street unaware and an 8 year old chasing the same ball but also sees the car coming? Or someone patiently waiting to cross the street while another impatiently sees they are miss…
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Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident
#410“For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.” Their stat is for miles in vehicles equipped with autopilot, not miles driven by autopilot. So if their claim was whether a Tesla equipped with auto…
True, they know this number, it is public and has been ratified by transit authorities; see pages 10-11: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF