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An Update on Last Week’s Accident

tesla.com

231–240 of 447 posts

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#231
I get downvoted reliably for taking issue with Tesla and Musk, but here I largely agree with them. People need to consider such incidents in the context of the overall danger of driving.

That said, Tesla needs to maintain its PR in order to do their next capital raise shortly or they may be out of luck.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#232

To me there is a stunning lack of compassion and decency in the response to these incidents by both Tesla and Uber. Uber made sure to point out that the victim of their incident was homeless. Tesla is pointing out how the driver received unrelated cues earlier in the journey. None of this information is relevant. They’re trying to bamboozle the reader in an effort to improve their images at the expense of victims who…

This was clearly vetted (or written) by a lawyer who is interested in changing the narrative for his future wrongful death defense rather than exercising empathy.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's widely known that RADAR systems are not able to detect stationary objects, only moving ones. Actually, they are are to detect them but just not where they come from That doesn't make any sense. Radar systems do detect stationary objects just fine. In fact, from the point of view of the moving car, almost nothing is stationary. I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct about the markings on the road, I almost c…

> It's widely known that RADAR systems are not able to detect stationary objects What the fuck? That's not at all how radar works. It has no such limitation.

My understanding is that RADAR systems can detect stationary objects just fine: What's going on is that in-car radar systems can't differentiate between, say, a metal sign on a gantry or at the side of the road and a parked car on the road, because their spatial resolution is poor to non-existent. Hence in-car RADAR systems (often) ignore radar returns that are non-moving relative to the road surface. Otherwise the car would panic brake every time you went past a road sign.

The effect of this is that current in car RADAR systems are great at avoiding collisions with vehicles that suddenly brake to a halt in front of you whilst at the same time will happily let you drive a full speed straight into the back of a parked car.

This is why I believe current self driving vehicles (apart from Tesla) are all using LIDAR for object detection.

(The above is my interpretation of my reading on the current state of the art. If anyone knows more detail, please correct me.)

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#234
Comparing the accident rate of autopilot Teslas to all cars is absurd and disingenuous, since obviously Tesla drivers are wealthier than average (they bought an expensive car), and thus much less likely to have accidents in the first place (car better maintained, more intelligent, more risk averse, less stressed, less dangerous behavior, etc.)

They are also admitting that their system can be used as a self-driving system (you can not have your hands on the wheel, and the warnings can apparently be ignored), and that it failed to act as such for 5 seconds and 150m hitting a static object.

Again, there should be criminal liability for them, and they should not be allowed to offer any system that is autonomous enough to be used without hands on the wheel but that can't correctly self-drive the car.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On my first drive into Bucharest a guy drove on the wrong side of the divided highway to take a left into the lot of a building supplies company right in front of my car. Scared the crap out of me. https://www.google.com/maps/@44.436552,25.9597006,18z

Can confirm, have just driven for 2+ hours on the streets of Bucharest and there’s no way for an AI-like car to drive in here for more than 2 blocks without getting involved into an accident. Unless said car becomes sentient, but even in that case it would still have to “guess” some of the crazy stuff the other drivers on the road may be up to or to expect that a barely marked road-construction thingie will suddenly…

It's the only place where I got honked at by a car on the sidewalk while walking on the sidewalk, and when I didn't get out of the way fast enough he proceeded to attempt to nudge me with his car.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#236
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Quite. Tesla is deliberately comparing their modern vehicle design & wealthy driver base (statistically one of the safest cohorts) with the entirety of the U.S. driving population. This is bad statistics: We expect Tesla vehicles to have far fewer accidents than the mean US vehicle per mile, because Tesla's are expensive modern vehicles with (relatively) wealthy drivers who can afford to keep them maintained & will…

> We expect Tesla vehicles to have far fewer accidents than the mean US vehicle per mile, We do? Is there a cite for that? It seems to me that driver of new luxury vehicles are disproportionately aggressive and unsafe, actually. Has this been studied? If your going to make an argument for bad statistics, you need to practice good science yourself.

The simplest argument here is that Tesla's are new vehicles, the total US fleet average age is much older than any Tesla on the road today and driver/passenger fatalities tend to be higher in older cars because they have fewer safety features.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#237
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We expect Tesla vehicles to have far fewer accidents than the mean US vehicle per mile, We do? Is there a cite for that? It seems to me that driver of new luxury vehicles are disproportionately aggressive and unsafe, actually. Has this been studied? If your going to make an argument for bad statistics, you need to practice good science yourself.

The simplest argument here is that Tesla's are new vehicles, the total US fleet average age is much older than any Tesla on the road today and driver/passenger fatalities tend to be higher in older cars because they have fewer safety features.

Yeah yeah, I get the argument. The point was that you can't ding Tesla for "bad statistics" by using an argument that asserts "tend to be" without evidence.

In fact I personally doubt (i.e. I have no evidence and am not actually making this argument because it would be "bad statistics") this is true if you compare Tesla's to the BMWs being sold into the same demographic. Those "safe new vehicles" you're positing include a whole lot of crossovers and minivans driven in much safer ways.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#238

To me there is a stunning lack of compassion and decency in the response to these incidents by both Tesla and Uber. Uber made sure to point out that the victim of their incident was homeless. Tesla is pointing out how the driver received unrelated cues earlier in the journey. None of this information is relevant. They’re trying to bamboozle the reader in an effort to improve their images at the expense of victims who…

Yeah, but it seems that they may be, statistically speaking, right. The fears that surround self driving cars may be unfounded, and if they are unfounded, then it would be a shame to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

They're right when they say we don't speak of the accidents that didn't happen, and I bet there's a ton of them.

As someone who's been in multiple car crashes, as a passenger, I really on longer want to be at the mercy of human drivers.

Brief reminder of the same discussion, in a different context.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzD4tIvPHwE

Yet on one, and I really mean no one complains about computer assisted landings and takeoffs. I'm not sure why. Lots of passengers even sleep through them.

I guess we've come to realise that the man machine symbiosis works well for flight. But it might take time for this to get engrained into our culture when it comes to driving.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#239
post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is mentioned in the manual of the car: "Traffic-Aware Cruise Control cannot detect all objects and may not brake/decelerate for stationary vehicles, especially in situations when you are driving over 50 mph (80 km/h) and a vehicle you are following moves out of your driving path and a stationary vehicle or object is in front of you instead." You can also read here that Volvo's system faces the same problem: https:…

This is not a RADAR problem, it’s a world modeling problem. So you’re sending out pulses and listening for echos, which tells you how far away something is in a particular direction. You correlate subsequent pulses to say whether the object is moving toward you or away. If you have a car 50 m ahead of you every time you ping, everything is good. Now that car suddenly swerves around a car stopped in front of it, and y…

That’s not how it works in my limited understanding. Radars don’t just detect the positions of object, but also their relative speed. For this, they take advantage of the Doppler effect. When a pulse gets reflected, its frequency rises if the object is moving towards the radar, and falls if it’s moving away.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#240
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The simplest argument here is that Tesla's are new vehicles, the total US fleet average age is much older than any Tesla on the road today and driver/passenger fatalities tend to be higher in older cars because they have fewer safety features.

Yeah yeah, I get the argument. The point was that you can't ding Tesla for "bad statistics" by using an argument that asserts "tend to be" without evidence. In fact I personally doubt (i.e. I have no evidence and am not actually making this argument because it would be "bad statistics") this is true if you compare Tesla's to the BMWs being sold into the same demographic. Those "safe new vehicles" you're positing incl…

Lots of data here:

http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/42/4/1

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