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Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

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Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#191

Post by TaylorAlexander »

joshuamorton wrote: post #152
baddox wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by probabilistic? If you mean that the models takes input and outputs one or more labeled probabilities (e.g. “90% confidence the input photo is a dog, 10% confidence the input photo is a cat), then yes, I believe that many AI systems work this way. If you mean random , in the sense that the system may return different results given the exact same inputs, then in not sure if there are AI systems that…

There are. Monte Carlo methods is the keyword you're looking for. AlphaGo (Monte Carlo Tree Search) is an example of one such AI. Obviously you can set the RNG seed to be the same every time too, but even that only works if your system is wholly synchronous, which a car probably isn't. Note that I doubt Monte Carlo methods are common in the autonomous vehicle space.

Well I don’t work in autonomous cars but I did work on several autonomous robots, and “ Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization” is a common way to keep a ROS + LIDAR based robot localized.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Monte Carlo techniques are useful for all manner of things related to ingesting sensor data on autonomous vehicles.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#192

Post by greglindahl »

dingo_bat wrote: post #188
greglindahl wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is Tesla supposed to know, yet, if Autopilot actually made the maneuver? They're saying what they know. Edit: in a posting today, Tesla has said more: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident but at the time of the earlier blog posting, Tesla says they did not know yet.

They definitely know. They collect your driving data even when auto pilot is off, so I'd imagine they collect everything when the autopilot is actually engaged.

Tesla specifically said that the information was in the car and wasn't transmitted to HQ, so they didn't know. If what you say is true, they're lying to the USG.

Let me share an example. I had an accident in a Model S, front-end, which didn't cause a loss of power. Tesla called me a couple of minutes later, saying that they knew I'd had an airbag-deploying accident, and asking if I needed an ambulance. From the description of this accident, power to the Tesla was lost before there was time to phone home.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#193

Post by markmark »

I really don't like autopilot. It's good enough to make drivers trust it and not pay attention, but it's not good enough to not kill people when they do that. And when there's an accident Telsa come out and say "the system warned the driver to put their hands on the wheel" or something similar. Unless a car can 100% self drive drivers aids should require the driver to have hands on the wheel and be paying active attention at all times.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#194

Post by agumonkey »

nxc18 wrote: post #32
herbst wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was so excited about auto-pilot and dreamed of getting in my car and sleeping while it made cross-country trips. So much for that, that seems way far out. This is more a hijack than a direct critique but I think the general issue is the assumption that we need a private vehicle for that. Trains are perfectly capable for bringing me from A to B while I am sleeping for years now. Edit:// with years I mean years. Be…

Not in the United States. Rail coverage is terrible. If you can get to your destination, good luck doing that without switching trains.

We need IoTrains

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#196

Post by sitkack »

todd8 wrote: post #173
gowld wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoa whoa whoa, "auto-pilot" is NOT self-driving. Tesla goes to great pains to make auto-pilot sound like self-driving while still stringently claiming that it requires constant supervision, like an airplane auto-pilot.

Yes, but my friends that own Tesla's actually believe that self-driving cars are almost here. When I say that it's at least ten years away and likely much longer because it will take big breakthroughs (strong AI, lot's of knowledge about the world, etc.) they look at me like I'm crazy. I really hope it happens in my lifetime, but I remember talking about Greenblatt's chess program (see [1]) when I was at MIT in the 6…

Deep Blue was actually a team of chess and CS experts assisted with a super computer to beat Kasparov. They were tuning parameters between games.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#197

Post by ethbro »

ineedasername wrote: post #108
dirtae wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the accident happened on US 101, which is a multi-lane highway with 5 or 6 lanes at the spot where the accident occurred. How many of the trips Tesla is citing occurred with the vehicle in the same lane as this guy? Comparing apples to apples would probably greatly reduce these 85,000 / 200 per day figures.

Exactly. Same lane, same time of day, same time of year (sunset/sunrise changes in lighting conditions) same weather patterns, same level of traffic. The combinatorics involved expand the possibilities to the point that some scenariors may have had little or no coverage from a dataset with 85k observations.

There was a big note in the GTC keynote this year about Nvidia using virtual environments to debug their autopilot algorithms. Think "car" being driven in a high fidelity video game.

Advantage being that if you can provide representative, simulated input then you can increase the training miles by orders of magnitude in the same amount of time, limited by computation rather than physical mileage.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#198

Post by toast0 »

markmark wrote: post #193

I really don't like autopilot. It's good enough to make drivers trust it and not pay attention, but it's not good enough to not kill people when they do that. And when there's an accident Telsa come out and say "the system warned the driver to put their hands on the wheel" or something similar. Unless a car can 100% self drive drivers aids should require the driver to have hands on the wheel and be paying active atte…

This is part of why I haven't considered a Tesla. If I get into an collision in any other manufacturer's vehicle, the manufacturer's PR team won't impune my honor in the court of public opinion.

It seems like the Tesla autopilot is very similar in capabilities to other manufacturers' active lane keeping, adaptive cruise control and active collision avoidance braking systems, however the marketing and user behavior is much different.

There's no expectation that a Pacifica with all the bells and whistles is going to do a good job driving for you with no hands, but if somebody stops suddenly, it will too.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#199

Post by QuarterReptile »

greglindahl wrote: post #186
mohaine wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US you will have lots of time to sleep due to waiting for an oncoming train to clear. In most parts of the country we don't have dedicated passenger tracks. Amtrak (our passenger line) just rents track time on the freight lines. The problem is that freight lines are often single track lines so if there is oncoming freight you just wait until the freight clears. Sometimes this his hours. Until we have dedicated…

I've ridden a lot of Amtrak and it's never been on a single track line. Are you sure that's an actual problem? Long delays, sure, but is that the reason? Seems to usually be train equipment failure.

Having ridden a lot of Amtrak almost makes it less likely that you'd have experienced the single track problem, since quality rail experiences in the US are pretty concentrated such that someone who has good train experiences probably lives/works in an area where that is the rule. On the East coast, pretty good service arguably extends as far south as Richmond, but past that sitting on the tracks is very common. And with that you get the classic downward spiral of crappy transit. Ride a train in SC or GA, and you'll see that anyone with the money for a plane ticket has abandoned rail there.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#200

Post by sseth »

lewis500 wrote: post #164

I am pretty mystified why tesla is even running autopilot on their cars. They already have more demand than they can handle, and I don't think anyone buys a tesla because of the autopilot. They are opening themselves up to huge court claims at the same time they are low on money. Just keep running tests and maybe do a pilot for a few years. Isn't Waymo sort of in the lead right now? They aren't running their software…

It allows them to develop self driving technology without the expense of dedicated cars and paid drivers, and without any liability (because drivers take the risk).
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