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Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

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Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#181

Post by joesmo »

shawn wrote: post #62
antirez wrote: post #61

"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…

Heisenbugs in AI are also interesting. As computers approach sentience, it will become progressively harder to explain their behavior. Why did you eat a bagel instead of eggs this morning? Usually there isn't a scientific answer. In the present, AI models are already so complicated that it seems hard to get reproducible diagnostic results, short of just saving every frame of data that the car's sensors pick up. And f…

If they can't figure out how to store that data they shouldn't be on the road. You're telling me it's a data storage / transmission problem that their best engineers can't solve, yet we're supposed to trust their machine learning system? Tons of companies are working on this and plenty seem to have figured out even bigger big data issues already.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#182

Post by Viper007Bond »

icefo wrote: post #107
lopmotr wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We adapt to weird behavior all the time. I once found my brake pedal went right to the floor while driving. Then it fixed itself. I drove carefully after that but still kept using it. The other day my engine started revving up uncontrollably until I pulled over and turned it off. It's been fine since. I still drive it. Would you blame someone if their check engine light was on or the steering felt a bit wobbly?

Pedal that went to the floor and then fixed itself probably mean you lost a brake pad and now you're using the Piston/caliper to stop (it should make grinding noise and your rotor / Piston / caliper won't last long) I'd get this fixed, if I'm right you're going to lose half the braking power of your car soon. (Pretty much all cars have a dual braking system, if shit happens you lose one front and one rear brake but n…

That would make a hell of a racket. They more likely boiled their brake fluid or something, possibly due to a stuck caliper.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#184

Post by empath75 »

aerovistae wrote: post #177

I love Tesla to death and in most cases will defend them beyond the point of reason. But I took a test drive in a model S for the first time earlier this year and almost immediately noticed autopilot’s extremely unreliable behavior— it would swerve out of lanes in ordinary situations that should have been easy to handle. The second I saw that, hat was it: I would never use it again before many years of testing and im…

> Of course Tesla is fairly safe behind their disclaimers and warnings

I don't think so. All it will take is a Tesla plowing into a sidewalk full of people, and no hand-wavy gesture at a license agreement is going to make the political and legal pressure go away.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#185

Post by jshb »

anonytrary wrote: post #155

I can't believe this person kept using it. If I had noticed a bug in auto-pilot and complained about it, I would be way too scared to ever use auto-pilot again. Personally, I never use auto-pilot because driving is piss easy, as it's designed to be. Perfect self-driving cars is a nearly impossible feat to accomplish in an unbounded track. I can only imagine automated driving in a system which has no room for error. E…

There is zero reason for not using the autopilot at the location based on Tesla's own explanation.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#186

Post by greglindahl »

mohaine wrote: post #40
herbst wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I was so excited about auto-pilot and dreamed of getting in my car and sleeping while it made cross-country trips. So much for that, that seems way far out. This is more a hijack than a direct critique but I think the general issue is the assumption that we need a private vehicle for that. Trains are perfectly capable for bringing me from A to B while I am sleeping for years now. Edit:// with years I mean years. Be…

In the US you will have lots of time to sleep due to waiting for an oncoming train to clear. In most parts of the country we don't have dedicated passenger tracks. Amtrak (our passenger line) just rents track time on the freight lines. The problem is that freight lines are often single track lines so if there is oncoming freight you just wait until the freight clears. Sometimes this his hours. Until we have dedicated…

I've ridden a lot of Amtrak and it's never been on a single track line. Are you sure that's an actual problem? Long delays, sure, but is that the reason? Seems to usually be train equipment failure.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#188

Post by dingo_bat »

greglindahl wrote: post #180
oldgradstudent wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also provide numbers without any context. Is a crash every 85,000 times in that intersection means the Autopilot is safe or is it a death trap? There are over 200,000 cars a day driving at that stretch of highway, if a car crashes there once a week, then the Tesla Autopilot is an order of magnitude more dangerous than a human driver.

How is Tesla supposed to know, yet, if Autopilot actually made the maneuver? They're saying what they know. Edit: in a posting today, Tesla has said more: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident but at the time of the earlier blog posting, Tesla says they did not know yet.

They definitely know. They collect your driving data even when auto pilot is off, so I'd imagine they collect everything when the autopilot is actually engaged.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#189

Post by anonytrary »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #169
anonytrary wrote: post #155

I can't believe this person kept using it. If I had noticed a bug in auto-pilot and complained about it, I would be way too scared to ever use auto-pilot again. Personally, I never use auto-pilot because driving is piss easy, as it's designed to be. Perfect self-driving cars is a nearly impossible feat to accomplish in an unbounded track. I can only imagine automated driving in a system which has no room for error. E…

Your numbers about error percentiles don't make sense. Ideally, you'd want an outcome measure like fatalities per million miles, accidents per 100k miles, not "% error" which is vague. Furthermore, look at the actual data we have right now. SDC makers actually put out data in California about their "disengagement rate" which is how many time the human drivers took over from the software. Waymo have steadily increased…

Then let's add some perspective. You must be referring this[0] paper. If the average person puts on 1,000 miles per month[1], then that means they'd have to deal with disengagement (a mishap) at least twice a year, which is not acceptable for fully autonomous driving. I'm going to define a "fully autonomous vehicle" as "a vehicle which should not ever require me to sit in the front seat and control it under any conceivable circumstance".

Put differently, I should be able to lay down for a nap in the back seat and wake up at my destination without any chance for disengagement during my entire lifetime. At the current rate of 1 mishap per 5,500miles, I would be dead after about 6 months.

Assuming a human lives to 75 years (we should really be using 75years minus 16years, but it's unimportant), a lifetime of driving is about 1,000mi/mo x 12mo/yr x 75yr = 900,000 miles. I don't even want the probability of encountering a mishap to be once per lifetime, let alone once per 6 months. One mishap per 900,000 miles isn't enough, because, on average, I'd encounter one disengagement in my lifetime. Assuming we're striving for a world where 7 billion people can drive without a single incident in 75 years (a vast underestimate), we need the probability of a mishap to occur to be less than once per 7,000,000,000humans x 900,000mi/human = 63 x 10^14 miles.

1/5e3 is not even close to 1/6e15. We're talking about 12 orders of magnitude in our error rate. I'd say we're laughably far away from our goal. We've got a long way to go.

[0] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/42aff875-7ab1-4115...

[1] https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/25/the-averag...

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#190

Post by rrdharan »

skybrian wrote: post #147
antirez wrote: post #61

"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…

I don't see what's wrong with what they wrote. This statement of course doesn't show that the software is safe, but it is evidence that if there is a bug, it probably isn't easily triggered. (Keep in mind that until they recover the logs, we don't even know if the autopilot was on.)

They have confirmed the autopilot was on:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident

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