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Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

reuters.com

321–330 of 487 posts

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#321
post #7

It is interesting that even in an article like this that they still say things like "for all its potential, blockchain is still in its early days." It is sticking with the unfounded assumption that it will be a success in the future, if only it is given more time. In technological terms, it is old. Innumerable efforts have been attempted, yielding almost no fruit. At what point are the fundamental assumptions going t…

The idea of a neutral "third party"(!) operating a globally available transaction ledger, with standardised APIs and agreed meanings to contracts and data structures is appealing to everyone in every sector. the sizzle of blockchain is enticing, it solves huge problems that are darn well intractable without "disruption". for example in finance the global clearing system is an embarrassing hodge podge that only benefi…

I don't see how blockchain fixes any of the clearing/settlements issues in a way which is better than a trusted third party (or which doesn't involve trusted third parties).

Let's take settlements. Some instruments are (still, in this day and age) ultimately issued in bearer form (ie, if you have the piece of paper, you own the bond/shares/title to the land/whatever, just like cash). This has a number of problems (you'd be surprised how many people lose bearer instruments). There's a similar, but less serious, problem with requirements for paper certificates in registered form.

The only real way to fix those is to change the law so that instruments can be dealt with in purely electronic registered form and the bearer instruments don't exist to start with.

Some jurisdictions haven't changed the law to allow this so we are stuck with legal title being bearer or paper certificate based. Blockchain by itself as such can't fix the problem of "what happens if you lose the instrument" and can't fix the problem of "what happens if you refuse to hand over the instrument in performance of a valid contract".

A trusted third party (nominee/custodian/etc), by contrast, can fix some of this pretty well (trusted third party keeps the instrument in a vault and issues its own electronic registered form instruments which confer "good enough" title most of the time).

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#322
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My major questions have always been: where is the business value in blockchain applications? what can a blockchain app do that can't be done by non-blockchain (beyond decentralization - bc I don't think this produces much business value)?

Nothing. Decentralisation is the selling point of blockchain technology. Anyone building on a blockchain that doesn't think decentralisation is beneficial in and of itself is a conman.

This is really the main selling point, decentralizing consensus so no one party becomes to big to fail, or so big they are unable to be opposed which leads to tyranny.

The sad part is that the blockchain is the least interesting part of this hype. The interesting part is making all mutations of state require signed inputs which has given a really needed push to the PKC UX. Metamask is fucking amazing and interacting with applications that utilize metamask as the source of identity is so simple, something that you'd be hard pressed to find before all this hype.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#323
post #240
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, it's the exact opposite. The security of a blockchain is fundamentally dependent on mining being expensive. That is the only defense against a 51% attack. Cheap energy just drives up consumption to the point where mining is expensive enough to deter attacks. This is ultimately what I think will sink blockchain as a medium of exchange (not necessarily as a store of value). By its very nature it cannot be che…

I meant that the variation in electricity costs harms the reputation of the blockchain. Work needs to be approximately the same difficulty for everyone.

  Work needs to be approximately the same difficulty for everyone
Unfortunately the main design and math of of Satoshi's PoW means that users who ran the BTC software app 2009-2014 worked far far far less and spent much less CAPEX and OPEX to generate the majority of BTC that will ever exist.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But one of the biggest selling points of Bitcoin itself was mathematically limited supply. A new cryptocurrency appearing every day fundamentally undermines the value proposition. Blockchain may have value as a decentralized ledger in other areas, but “lots of blockchain based currencies” aren’t really one of them since it’s self-sabotaging.

Not really. Network effects matter. Otherwise we would see social networks and other free services replaced on the regular.

Network effects, yes like how BTC is owned by a tiny pool of oligarchs who need other users to transfer real capital in for their zero sum pyramid scheme.

  One important point: if we actually include all 7 billion 
  people on the earth, most of whom have zero BTC or 
  Ethereum, the Gini coefficient is essentially 0.99+. And  
  if we just include all balances, we include many dust 
  balances which would again put the Gini coefficient at 
  0.99+. Thus, we need some kind of threshold here. The 
  imperfect threshold we picked was the Gini coefficient 
  among accounts with ≥185 BTC per address, and ≥2477 ETH 
  per address. So this is the distribution of ownership 
  among the Bitcoin and Ethereum rich with $500k as of July 
  2017.


  In what kind of situation would a thresholded metric like 
  this be interesting? Perhaps in a scenario similar to the 
  ongoing IRS Coinbase issue, where the IRS is seeking 
  information on all holders with balances >$20,000. 
  Conceptualized in terms of an attack, a high Gini 
  coefficient would mean that a government would only need 
  to round up a few large holders in order to acquire a 
  large percentage of outstanding cryptocurrency — and with 
  it the ability to tank the price.

  With that said, two points. First, while one would not 
  want a Gini coefficient of exactly 1.0 for BTC or ETH (as 
  then only one person would have all of the digital 
  currency, and no one would have an incentive to help boost 
  the network), in practice it appears that a very high 
  level of wealth centralization is still compatible with 
  the operation of a decentralized protocol. Second, as we 
  show below, we think the Nakamoto coefficient is a better 
  metric than the Gini coefficient for measuring holder 
  concentration in particular as it obviates the issue of 
  arbitrarily choosing a threshold.


  ...However, the maximum Gini coefficient has one obvious 
  issue: while a high value tracks with our intuitive notion 
  of a “more centralized” system, the fact that each Gini 
  coefficient is restricted to a 0–1 scale means that it 
  does not directly measure the number of individuals or 
  entities required to compromise a system.


  Specifically, for a given blockchain suppose you have a 
  subsystem of exchanges with 1000 actors with a Gini 
  coefficient of 0.8, and another subsystem of 10 miners 
  with a Gini coefficient of 0.7. It may turn out that 
  compromising only 3 miners rather than 57 exchanges may be 
  sufficient to compromise this system, which would mean the 
  maximum Gini coefficient would have pointed to exchanges 
  rather than miners as the decentralization bottleneck.


  Conversely, if one considers “number of distinct countries 
  with substantial mining capacity” an essential subsystem, 
  then the minimum Nakamoto coefficient for Bitcoin would 
  again be 1, as the compromise of China (in the sense of a 
  Chinese government crackdown on mining) would result in 
  >51% of mining being compromised.
https://medium.com/@balajis/quantifying-decentralization-e39...

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#325

What does "blockchain" even mean in this generalised context? When we are talking about crypto currencies, it is a distributed database with a consensus mechanism that is extremely costly to run. But this is not something you would need or want in most other situations, because there is always some degree of trust with your counterparties (and legal recourse if necessary). If we strip away the consensus mechanism, al…

"If we strip away the consensus mechanism, all that is left is a trivial data structure that anyone with a CS background could come up with. So, the question becomes where the real value proposition is in "blockchain technology" outside of the realm of crypto currencies. What are the things you can only do with "blockchain technology" that cannot be achieved with existing technology?"

To paraphrase -- "if you discount everything a blockchain does, what can you only do with a blockchain". This is not a reasonable approach.

Yes, blockchains are (now, at least), trivial. A merkle tree or simile distributed database with multiple writers and time-based consensus...a lot like git, really. There are an enormous number of potential uses of such a technology -- security and land ownership, contracts, etc. Virtually anything where you want an auditable, immutable historical record and where the data has many interested parties. This historically was accomplished via a centralized trusted database, but that doesn't mean that's the only solution.

HN, in many ways, is overly cynical at times, and is too eager to try to knock down the hypesters, throwing the baby out with the bath water to make a point.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#326
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this paper [1] made a decent case for permissioned blockchains ( i.e. "where the participants are limited to a predefined set") in cases where one must store state, accommodate multiple writers who do not trust each other and does not have access to an always-online trusted third party. The number of cases where the final condition applies is small, but positive. [1] https://eprint.iacr.org/2017/375.pdf

> cases where one must store state, accommodate multiple writers who do not trust each other and does not have access to an always-online trusted third party Ya, that's distributed adversarial consensus. Decentralized currencies are an excellent instance of such conditions. They really are a useful and interesting application. That doesn't mean they deserve all this hype in the form of investment from the average per…

Right now such currency is USD, with the Fed acting as a trusted third party. That's one of the reasons why other countries are investing in "blockchain technology", whatever that entails

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#327

What does "blockchain" even mean in this generalised context? When we are talking about crypto currencies, it is a distributed database with a consensus mechanism that is extremely costly to run. But this is not something you would need or want in most other situations, because there is always some degree of trust with your counterparties (and legal recourse if necessary). If we strip away the consensus mechanism, al…

Coming from a logistics background, coordinating tracability data is painful within a company , even with help of ERP like SAP. But when you need tracability across an industry , it becomes almost impossible. I had professional experience in an industry where we had to go to the plants to ensure rolls of paper certified from suppliers using responsibly-managed forests were physically separated from the non-certified…

OK great.

Now how do you get "the blockchain" to know which paper rolls went into which shipping container.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#328
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant that the variation in electricity costs harms the reputation of the blockchain. Work needs to be approximately the same difficulty for everyone.

Work needs to be approximately the same difficulty for everyone Unfortunately the main design and math of of Satoshi's PoW means that users who ran the BTC software app 2009-2014 worked far far far less and spent much less CAPEX and OPEX to generate the majority of BTC that will ever exist.

Sorry, more clarification -- same difficulty at roughly the same time, not same difficulty across time.

Edit: It seems this thread has gone off on a tangent. I was adding to the discussion of flawed assumptions, not ethics.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#329
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many of those have the market cap of Facebook?

From 2007: "Will MySpace Ever Lose Its Monopoly?"[1] Past performance does not beget future success. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2007/feb/08/business....

MySpace prospered for four years, that's it.

And by prospered I mean, never made money, never became self-sustaining at all.

Facebook is still expanding in its 15th year.

MySpace never earned a profit pre Fox acquisition (the Google deal gave it a one time bump).

In historical terms, MySpace is barely a bump in the road, about the size of an Ask.fm type service (ie trivial in today's hyper scale). It's like looking back and thinking Excite was a juggernaut and therefore a supporting piece of evidence that Google is going to die soon.

Facebook will earn ~$20 billion in 2018 and will end the year with $50 billion in cash. That's 86 times what MySpace sold to Fox for.

MySpace peaked in size at a mere 75 million monthly active users. Facebook is nearly 30 times larger.

MySpace then is to Facebook now, what AltaVista at its peak is to Google today.

Re: Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But one of the biggest selling points of Bitcoin itself was mathematically limited supply. A new cryptocurrency appearing every day fundamentally undermines the value proposition. Blockchain may have value as a decentralized ledger in other areas, but “lots of blockchain based currencies” aren’t really one of them since it’s self-sabotaging.

The limited supply was really only a value proposition for a small group of people. Most are not interested in deflationary currencies.

For a decentralized currency, the limited supply is the only value proposition that made it viable. Otherwise the currency itself becomes flooded by mining rather than purchased with other forms of currency, which leads to more miners trying to cash out than people trying to buy in, which leaves the currency itself into a constant, downward price based on sheer supply and demand.

Any type of currency that doesn't have something limiting the supply (not fixed, but at least constrained) becomes valueless by default.

Even if Bitcoin is limited, if cryptocurrencies themselves are not then we're all just giving people a license to print money.

At least with the Federal Reserve there is a governing body limiting the supply of new dollars entering into the system.

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