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Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

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Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#161

Post by jakobegger »

pgreenwood wrote: post #137
setra wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fatal accident at 50x the rate of a sober human driver with a study size where N = 1.

I'll have a go at seeing what we can conclude from the data. Others, check my thinking please . Now we have 1 death in 3m miles for Uber, versus 1.18 deaths in 100m miles for sober drivers. The expected rate for 100m miles for Uber is 33.333... But how confident can we be? To answer that let's compute a poisson confidence interval around that rate, as in https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/10926/how-to-calcu...…

Erm... I don’t think statistics work like this. You can‘t go and pick a confidence level that „confirms“ your desired outcome.

People with more knowledge about statistics than me might be able to explain why.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#162

Post by crististm »

ggg9990 wrote: post #104
onetimemanytime wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe Uber got unlucky and they had to be suspended. I wonder how many miles they had and every how many miles does an accident happens with human drivers.

Uber did not get unlucky -- they are simply an evil company. Their cars need human intervention every 13 miles as opposed to Google's every 5,600 miles -- they were not fit for the road but Uber let them out anyways. Uber should be shut down and the principals should get life without parole.

Fair judgment but where did you get those figures from?

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#163

Post by ducktoller »

owenversteeg wrote: post #9

Saying nothing about Google/Waymo, it appears they're allowed to continue? Their self-driving technology seems far more advanced, I think it would be unfair to punish all the players for the bad actions of a few. In particular, Uber seems to have been operating self-driving cars recklessly and in an attempt to "move fast and break things". When those things are people's lives, that's unacceptable. I'm all for interes…

There was a person at the wheel.

That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone.

Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person with a bicycle walks out into the middle of the road at night with a black sweatshirt on in front of my car, then I step on the brakes.

And why is no one acknowledging that a homeless person walked out into the middle of the street at night in a black sweatshirt. I definitely don't know whether I, even if I wasn't on my phone like the car operator was, would've seen the person in the road with enough time to slam on the brakes. I might've killed that person walking across the road by mistake, too.

Like millions of other people on the road every single day, the car operator was on their smartphone while they were at the wheel. And like 3-5 million other people a year, the homeless person walking across the street was killed in a car accident.

The woman walking across the street and the woman at the wheel of the car broke the law. Uber didn't break any laws as far as I can tell. They were as responsible as any other company building self-driving cars as far as I can tell, too. I don't think it's fair to put the fault on Uber here.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#164

Post by jonathanstrange »

qwerty456127 wrote: post #70
owenversteeg wrote: post #9

Saying nothing about Google/Waymo, it appears they're allowed to continue? Their self-driving technology seems far more advanced, I think it would be unfair to punish all the players for the bad actions of a few. In particular, Uber seems to have been operating self-driving cars recklessly and in an attempt to "move fast and break things". When those things are people's lives, that's unacceptable. I'm all for interes…

> bad actions of a few What bad actions? If you mean an AI car killing a person - that's hardly "an action", that's an accident. Classic human-driven cars kill people every day yet are allowed to continue operation. Do people really expect self-driving cars to be not just more safe than classic but actually 100% safe? By the way I myself don't drive at all and only use public transport (and a bicycle to ride the coun…

One problem with these comparisons is the misinterpretation of statistical data. For general policy making statistics are useful, but for personal decisions you need to take them with a grain of salt and switch on your brain.

Human traffic accident statistics include the totality of reckless drivers, street racers, and drunken idiots. Would you readily be a passenger when they drive? I wouldn't. At the same time, the statistics also include the calmest, best, and most reasonable drivers you've ever met in your life.

I think it's reasonable to expect self-driving cars to always drive better than your average drunk college student with 1 year of driving experience and instead perform more like the best drivers you've ever met. So yes, self-driving cars should perform above the human average.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#165

Post by amelius »

ducktoller wrote: post #163
owenversteeg wrote: post #9

Saying nothing about Google/Waymo, it appears they're allowed to continue? Their self-driving technology seems far more advanced, I think it would be unfair to punish all the players for the bad actions of a few. In particular, Uber seems to have been operating self-driving cars recklessly and in an attempt to "move fast and break things". When those things are people's lives, that's unacceptable. I'm all for interes…

There was a person at the wheel. That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone. Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person w…

Cruise control is different because you still have your hands on the wheel.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#166

Post by salvar »

ducktoller wrote: post #163
owenversteeg wrote: post #9

Saying nothing about Google/Waymo, it appears they're allowed to continue? Their self-driving technology seems far more advanced, I think it would be unfair to punish all the players for the bad actions of a few. In particular, Uber seems to have been operating self-driving cars recklessly and in an attempt to "move fast and break things". When those things are people's lives, that's unacceptable. I'm all for interes…

There was a person at the wheel. That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone. Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person w…

What is the significance of the person being homeless?

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#167

Post by ducktoller »

amelius wrote: post #165
ducktoller wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a person at the wheel. That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone. Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person w…

Cruise control is different because you still have your hands on the wheel.

A fully autonomous car is different, too.

The person at the wheel when that woman was killed was responsible for stepping on the brakes if necessary. And when I have cruise control on, I'm also responsible for stepping on the brakes if necessary.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#168

Post by ducktoller »

salvar wrote: post #166
ducktoller wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a person at the wheel. That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone. Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person w…

What is the significance of the person being homeless?

It's a descriptor, the same way "man" or "woman" is a descriptor. Descriptors help you picture a situation more clearly.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#169

Post by seren »

ducktoller wrote: post #163
owenversteeg wrote: post #9

Saying nothing about Google/Waymo, it appears they're allowed to continue? Their self-driving technology seems far more advanced, I think it would be unfair to punish all the players for the bad actions of a few. In particular, Uber seems to have been operating self-driving cars recklessly and in an attempt to "move fast and break things". When those things are people's lives, that's unacceptable. I'm all for interes…

There was a person at the wheel. That person wasn't paying full attention to the road. From the video of the crash, it looks like the woman at the wheel was looking at their phone. Why is no one acknowledging that this woman was responsible for taking over the wheel if necessary for any reason. When I have cruise control on, I take my feet off of the pedals and rest them on the floor. But if, say, a homeless person w…

They are also responsible for the test setup, the behavior and training of their employees.

If all their drivers, which ultimately are the latest safety when everything fails, are routinely not following the process that is an issue.

Maybe you need to have 2 drivers, maybe you need to randomly monitor the behavior of the driver remotely, but you have to demonstrate some active measures your took, to demonstrate the safety of the test. You cannot just say "not my fault".

I am not saying that Uber have not followed a rigorous procedure I don't know. But saying it is their fault or not seems a bit premature.

Re: Arizona Government Suspends Uber's Self Driving Cars from Roads

#170

Post by Fricken »

Someone wrote: post #132
zitterbewegung wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole thing was started by a DARPA grand challenge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge Industry takes the lead after DARPA's investment which makes sense.

Started? The Wikipedia page you mention says ”Fully autonomous vehicles have been an international pursuit for many years, from endeavors in Japan (starting in 1977)” , and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars lists attempts going back to the 1930s (1920s, if you take ‘radio controlled’ as a form of autonomy) The first DARPA grand challenge was announced in 2002 and held in 2004.

The theory is that the chain of effect that led to where we are today with autonomous vehicle development began with the Big Bang, but it's generally agreed that the current development paradigm crystalized through the DARPA Grand Challenges in 2004, 2005 and the Darpa Urban challenge in 2007, though we also owe a great deal to deep learning, which Google didn't utilize in Autonomous vehicles until 2014.
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