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Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

business.financialpost.com

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Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#201

Post by some_account »

nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Facebook wasn't built on trust, obviously. I would rather say it was built on the ignorance of the masses. There are a few people who never created a Facebook account, because they understood the consequence of a big American platform having all your contacts and activities.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#202

Post by wizardforhire »

brandmeyer wrote: post #186
wizardforhire wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Privacy, security, rights Managment. Not quite State level but close (because does that even exist?). It's celebrities that travel nearly most days of the years. Every place that's always in the news for something terrible is probably a destination at somepoint. Also stalkers, extortionists, kidnappers, they're very real. Also and I would think probably more pertinent is that given current events, for something decen…

Here's the thing. Encryption only allows you to protect the channel of information between two parties. Once the other party has the information you shared, they can in turn share it with whomever they wish. You can establish a private network amongst your selected peers. But you cannot prevent your peers from violating the network's privacy, either purposefully or accidentally. No amount of encryption can do that.

Right. But I'm thinking torrents and packets distributed to the local network of peers to ease the distributed bandwidth load. Granted a state level actor could potentially collect all data as they do now and have a hell of time trying to piece it all back together. That would take total knowledge of the network and the keys. But for users whom have permission to view the content granted to them through the "friending" process the last thing you want is for them to be able to mine their device or know what's being stored on their device. This would take a fixed install size with a flexible disc space to store popular files, something that would be clearly communicated at the time install of course. Nothing will stop people from pulling triggers other than culture. But making it difficult for the bad actors to do so seems like a good place to start. That and having a paper trail should shit hit the fan.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#203

Post by MarkMc »

btilly wrote: post #131
gonehome wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

Facebook's network effect is extremely strong... Network effects are not as strong as you might think. Multiple lines of evidence point to it being O(n log(n)) in general. See https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/metcalfes-law-i... for details. The log(n) factor does work in Facebook's favor against newcomers. It is a barrier to entry. However it is a barrier to entry that can be overcome with a better user e…

> My desired experience is that I want to see what my friends have to say, and don't want to see random commercial spam.

Have you tried Facebook recently? These days 90% of my feed is posts from my friends.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#204

Post by e12e »

shrimpx wrote: post #136
golfer wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google obviously relies heavily on ad revenue, but their business is far more diversified than FB. Consider: Google Play revenue (apps + media purchase/rental) Hardware (Pixel phone/Google home/Nest hardware) YouTube video ad revenue (brand based ads rather than search) Youtube TV, Youtube Red subscription revenue Google Cloud (>$1BB/quarter) Plus the other tech on the horizon, that if something pops here, it will be…

Yeah? And what's the ratio of ad revenue to total revenue in 2017?

This took surprisingly many searches to answer - I was expecting to find this neatly tabulated from earning reports etc. But anyway :

"Alphabet generated $32.3 billion in revenue during the fourth quarter, up 24% from the same period last year. It was Alphabet’s highest-revenue quarter ever, beating out the prior quarter. About $27.2 billion of that revenue, or 85%, came from Google’s advertising business."

https://qz.com/1195777/googles-swelling-advertising-business...

I also found it interesting how much Google pays for "traffic acquisition" (like paying Mozilla for default search etc):

" In its most recently completed quarter, traffic-acquisitions costs were $6.5 billion, or 24% of Google’s advertising revenue, up 33% from the same period last year. Google’s strongest growth areas—mobile search and programmatic advertising—carry higher traffic-acquisition costs, Alphabet chief financial officer Ruth Porat said on the earnings call."

(this is of course how Facebook is competing with Google: they have a captive audience that they additionally know very well).

As far as I can tell ad revenue is growing faster than all of google's "hobby" projects... They're still an advertising company with a couple of tech projects in a shed in the garden.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#205

Post by osrec »

gonehome wrote: post #35
nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

I would be careful with those calls. I mean, they're a decent hedge, but I'm not sure they have as much upside as you think. What we are seeing is the tip of the iceberg. It is not unlikely that even more negativity will come crawling out of the woodwork (not least because the media don't seem to be massive fans of FB).

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#206

Post by soziawa »

gonehome wrote: post #35
nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

> Facebook's network effect is extremely strong

But it has to stay stronger than it's bad reputation. If the only thing you have is a network effect you are in a very bad place. Everyone I know used to be on MSN and then within a week everyone had WhatsApp and MSN was practically dead.

> this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus)

True Instagram is strong especially since they can show a shitton of ads there. But Instagram isn't Facebooks vision of what the world should be.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#207

Post by someoneelse987 »

gaius wrote: post #185
734786710934 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has no serious competition at the moment other than Snapchat. Young people are still using Instagram and Messenger. Ironically, the calls for regulation might actually end up helping Facebook in the end as they will make the barriers to entry higher.

Facebook has no serious competition at the moment The competition is “socialising the pre-Facebook way”

To me what changed with Facebook was that the local address book that I had on my phone became a tree in a central graph owned by a company and I was fine giving out that information. Today who could muster up the trust needed for me to let them know about everyone I know? I think no such company exists or ever will.

I have no social internet accounts left except for this one. I even recently deleted my Linkedin account even though that is bad for my career (?). I just don't want to feel raped all the time. I keep getting Linkedin-ish head-hunting emails though but I'm sure that'll clear up in a year or so.

If I'm ever socializing again on the internet, give me something that doesn't rape me in the *. Otherwise I'm fine just socializing IRL.

I hope we are a void and that something new is about to happen.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#208

Post by MarkMc »

anaptdemise wrote: post #192
kin wrote: post #55

I genuinely believe that advertisers are only pulling out because it's the PR thing to do. There are many other companies that would love to take advantage of a less competitive bid for Facebook ad space and I have no doubt they will be taking advantage of it and will continue to spend boats of money on Facebook.

Two of the largest advertisers don’t think Facebook ads are effective. The latest, P&G, specifically call out how narrow targeting is ineffective. > After cutting back on certain digital ads, “we didn’t see a reduction in the growth rate,” said Mr. Moeller during the call. “What that tells me is that the spending we cut was largely ineffective.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304192704577406... https://…

I wonder why Facebook doesn't make deals with supermarkets to collect data on every single purchase. There's no doubt that Facebook advertising would be far more effective if it knew when John Smith last purchased toothpaste.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#209

Post by cJ0th »

This looks like big news but I think it is merely a small correction of its market value. For better or worse, they are going to stay for a very long time. At least from the current generation a significant amount of people will cling onto it for the rest of their lives like others do with cigarettes.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#210

Post by kromem »

gonehome wrote: post #35
nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

You're right - it's going to bounce back.

But don't hold on to those shares for too long.

The mesh/decentralized/p2p networking movement is really interesting, and given the ever increasing power of user devices, the balance for a shift to those models is compelling.

There are huge existing challenges, but I'm seeing really smart ideas in the space, and I think it's only a matter of years before we start to see mainstream p2p networks (still over the Internet) replacing a server model for some successful widespread apps or services. Facebook style social networking is the PERFECT use case for such a topology.

Facebook's time is coming to an end. Not now (like some are reacting), and not in the next year or so, but soon enough. Their paradigm isn't as good as the alternative. The alternative simply has implementation issues that need to be worked out, but they aren't insurmountable, and different groups of people are solving them in novel ways constantly.

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