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Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

business.financialpost.com

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Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#152
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market has been choppy since February but FB moving down will bring other stocks down with it. Google was down over the same period BECAUSE of Facebook. Facebook is very much a bellwether company like it or not.

> Google was down over the same period BECAUSE of Facebook This feels counter-intuitive to me as these are the major players in online advertising. A facebook exodus would feel like a positive for google's primary revenue driver. Why is the inverse effect true?

Good explanations here but it's mostly due to relative valuation and this is magnified by the fact that a lot of these big names are cross-listed among hundreds and thousands of ETFs. I cannot stress enough the impact ETFs and so called "smart" beta trading will have in the next couple of years.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

Yes, Facebook's current network is fairly strong, but you shouldn't look to where the masses currently are, you should look to where the trendsetters, the young, and the people in the know—where they are. These people are ahead of the curve, and the signs they are emitting is that Facebook is not serving their interests and needs. Young people don't want to use facebook because it forces you to interact with everyone…

I've been putting off posting this for months because when I write it, it seems grandiose but it's been my life and it's too ridiculous not to share.

I was born in 80 so that dates me. I've worked in music for the last 20 years and I've worked with over 60 bands most of whom are very successful now. However that number is misleading because I've toured with hundreds of bands if you count the openers and headliners over the years. It's stupid really when I look back on it. Once when I was 25 I used my network to start a music festival with no money that's been going on for the last 10 years and has never had less than 50k people attend. Anyways long story short most people don't understand marketing. But when you're touring you're living it. I remember when the words taste maker started getting thrown around. I remember when gorilla marketing became a thing... Because the marketing people would all be coming to our shows and our parties and sponsoring us. All of this to say that

We were early adopters of Friendster, when they killed the bulletin board my friends and I moved to MySpace, when MySpace got over crowded we moved to Facebook, when our families friends got on Facebook we left for Twitter and reddit, the less public of us left Twitter almost immediately but our pr teams stayed, when Obama won in 08 we left reddit. Many of us went to snapchat and we all use Instagram even though we hate it. There was a minor period when we thought google + was going to serve us but that lasted exactly one day.

What we desperately want is a decentralized encrypted locally hosted application that has exactly one killer simple feature. A bulletin board to post events. That's it. A simple way to keep in touch with each other and local ownership of our photos and videos. Sure to reduce bandwidth we'd be fine with our friends or fans hosting encrypted files on their devices but that's as far as they go. Do that, slap an easy to use interface on it, don't have advertising call it something literal like friends torrent or something and we'll never have another Facebook. If you want to monotize it... Give it a market place. But if you take anything from this rant it should be this, your tastemakers aren't faceless nameless statistics they're real people and they're friends with each other. We know who we are and we are and have been paying attention.

Also fuck Facebook freedom isn't free

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Facebook's current network is fairly strong, but you shouldn't look to where the masses currently are, you should look to where the trendsetters, the young, and the people in the know—where they are. These people are ahead of the curve, and the signs they are emitting is that Facebook is not serving their interests and needs. Young people don't want to use facebook because it forces you to interact with everyone…

I've been putting off posting this for months because when I write it, it seems grandiose but it's been my life and it's too ridiculous not to share. I was born in 80 so that dates me. I've worked in music for the last 20 years and I've worked with over 60 bands most of whom are very successful now. However that number is misleading because I've toured with hundreds of bands if you count the openers and headliners ov…

Do that, slap an easy to use interface on it

What you're asking for is much more difficult than you realize.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has no serious competition at the moment other than Snapchat. Young people are still using Instagram and Messenger. Ironically, the calls for regulation might actually end up helping Facebook in the end as they will make the barriers to entry higher.

Instagram is a completely different app, usage, and completely different UI/UX from Facebook. Facebook's problems are caused by Facebook (website)'s design, trajectory, and business model. It doesn't have anything to do with inherent evilness in the company itself.

I'm replying to the dead comment.

The Facebook site is evil and should be destroyed because of 2 reasons, in my opinion.

Firstly, the news feed is solely designed to get you to stay on the site for longer. And what that means is you get an echo chamber. So, idiot people get idiot posts that agree with them. It's not just a problem on one side of the political spectrum, it's a problem for any extreme view. Anti-vaxxers, left wing communists, and right wing fascists all get into their echo chamber and never get out.

Secondly, the advertising platform that Facebook has created is too powerful. It lets you micro-target people in a way that is absolutely perfect for political ads. You find people vulnerable to an emotional message and bombard them with your emotionally responsive ads.

Facebook ads are good for non-political things as well, but in this case, we'll have to throw the baby out with the bathwater I think.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been putting off posting this for months because when I write it, it seems grandiose but it's been my life and it's too ridiculous not to share. I was born in 80 so that dates me. I've worked in music for the last 20 years and I've worked with over 60 bands most of whom are very successful now. However that number is misleading because I've toured with hundreds of bands if you count the openers and headliners ov…

Do that, slap an easy to use interface on it What you're asking for is much more difficult than you realize.

I know (with lots love)! That's why I haven't built it. It's also why I don't think it has been built yet and why in my frustration this evening I sort of let loose.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very good compensation is one reason I can think of.

I'd think most people who get major comp from FB could also get it from a lot of the other big players.

Facebook is known for being a little more profligate with their spending, especially for senior and up. On the other hand, they will fire you faster. I have heard that Netflix is even more in that direction, if "excitement" is something you desire in the domain of "whether you will be employed tomorrow or not."

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook How certain is this? Whether you like what Facebook does or not, you can't deny their engineering talent is top tier. I don't even use Facebook but I'd still want to work there just to work with the people there and the environment. Companies like Facebook and Google are pretty engineer friendly, more so than other companies. I don't think this event will be t…

I was recently considering responding to the Facebook recruiter that keeps e-mailing me. Now I'm back to a definite no. These things start with people who are more on the fence.

Are you top talent, though? Facebook recruiters email everyone with a pulse, and some without.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#159
post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

>"I'm buying FB call options."

In other words you're anticipating the share price to decline further. This sort of supports the OPs first assertion.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#160
post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

Whatever Facebook once aspired to be? That vision, the “social graph connecting everything and everyone” vision that justifies the $500B valuation, is dead. The social graph will decay without new data, and it quickly loses relevance as the data becomes stale. Is there commercial value in knowing what someone “liked” 15 years ago? Because that’s the future of Facebook.

Watch, Facebook will be the new Yahoo! Enough successful products to keep them alive, but with its vision destroyed and it’s mandate revoked, it will be a shadow of its former self. Influencers have already started moving away.

That company has a market value somewhere greater than zero but certainly less than even Facebook’s current market cap. The question is not “will it drop?” but “how low will it go?”

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