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Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

business.financialpost.com

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Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#101

Post by gutnor »

domevent wrote: post #89
gonehome wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

There’s a real disconnect I’m noticing, which comes with a kind of script here. “Nobody cares,” “I’m buying their stock,” “It will all blow over,” “No one outside of our bubble cares.” I suspect the same people will be saying the same thing next week when another $50b have been shed, another scandal or two has come to light, and more users and advertisers flee the platform. I wonder at what point it’s going to sink i…

You will always see both side of the coin - after all if your interpretation was any more certain than parent, the stock would be worth 0 today.

FB lost a few months of profits and has a set of issues. All the rest are hunches, it could be the beginning of the end, or just shedding a bunch of investors that just want to cash in and have nothing to do with the drama. It could also be the time that the government step in, regulate the shit out of social network, locking anyone but the richest companies from competing and basically cementing Facebook as de-facto standard with a license to print money.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#102

Post by domevent »

jarjoura wrote: post #99
domevent wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyway, I'm not here to argue in favor of FB You’re just doing a really great impression of someone who is? My initial reaction was an unrealistic belief that you and others singing a similar tune work for FB, but I doubt that. I think it’s a very rational fear that FB is the first domino to fall, possibly along with Uber. Fear and self-interest, and the simple desire not to see your industry facing a prolonged publi…

As it's impossible for me to convince anyone in this thread of anything on this topic, I'm just freely making some points. People have already picked a side to stand on and the line has been drawn. Case in point, you've already gotten your pitchfork out.

You didn’t really respond to anything I said, just complained that people aren’t agreeing with you and some ad hom that those people are mob-like.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#103

Post by redorb »

gonehome wrote: post #35
nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

I agree its a overreaction. I think selling premium is better for the stocks high implied volatility. Something like the 155/150 put spread for $160-ish risking $340 per contract.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#104

Post by phinnaeus »

chrischen wrote: post #74
otalp wrote: post #10

I fail to see how this will seriously damage them. They already own the two biggest alternatives to facebook - Instagram for pictures and WhatsApp for communication. More people are using their services than ever before and more people are getting access to the internet in developing countries.

People in US don't really use Whatsapp. iOS users do use iMessage and Android use Hangouts.

Do android users actually uses Hangouts? I have a couple of friends on it but my understanding is that Android users (like myself) just stick with standard SMS/MMS in the US. Patiently waiting for Universal RCS to take off...

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#105

Post by cowpig »

ngsayjoe wrote: post #75
otalp wrote: post #10

I fail to see how this will seriously damage them. They already own the two biggest alternatives to facebook - Instagram for pictures and WhatsApp for communication. More people are using their services than ever before and more people are getting access to the internet in developing countries.

Don't forget Telegram is gaining tractions lately. I just registered Telegram and hope Whatsapp die!

I think Telegram will have its own big scandal in the next few years

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#106

Post by toasterlovin »

username223 wrote: post #37
toasterlovin wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We shall see. Media lends itself to being highly concentrated. Social media, because of network effects, even more so.

Only up to a point. In the real world, people move in multiple social spheres, and usually like to keep them separate. I think the same is true online. For example, some kids see Facebook as "the place their parents are," a place to act polite and keep things to themselves. After all, why are we "toasterlovin" and "username223" here?

Good points. I think there's a good chance that there will be a changing of the guard at some point.

But social media within a given sphere is a winner take all game. Then the winner in the biggest sphere will try and buy all adjacent social media companies (see Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp). The only hope I see is either 1) somebody has a large enough ego to think they can take on the dominant player (Snapchat/Evan Spiegel), or 2) the government gets some sense and decides that it's not a good idea to let the dominant player buy adjacent companies. So maybe Snapchat wins eventually as their demographic grows older. But then we're in the same position we're in now, just with a different company on top.

At least, that's how things seem like they will play out to me.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#107

Post by shrimpx »

liquidise wrote: post #83
bitxbit wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market has been choppy since February but FB moving down will bring other stocks down with it. Google was down over the same period BECAUSE of Facebook. Facebook is very much a bellwether company like it or not.

> Google was down over the same period BECAUSE of Facebook This feels counter-intuitive to me as these are the major players in online advertising. A facebook exodus would feel like a positive for google's primary revenue driver. Why is the inverse effect true?

Loss of confidence in this overall space. Google relies on surveilling users and selling them to advertisers as much as Facebook or more.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#108

Post by [deleted] »

chrischen wrote: post #79
734786710934 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has no serious competition at the moment other than Snapchat. Young people are still using Instagram and Messenger. Ironically, the calls for regulation might actually end up helping Facebook in the end as they will make the barriers to entry higher.

Instagram is a completely different app, usage, and completely different UI/UX from Facebook. Facebook's problems are caused by Facebook (website)'s design, trajectory, and business model. It doesn't have anything to do with inherent evilness in the company itself.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#109

Post by newnewpdro »

amelius wrote: post #49
manmal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FB‘s open source projects are one of the few things they are doing right, so why avoid them? AFAIK the licenses are ok, so they are interchangeable in the end as maintainers.

It's not the quality of the code I'm concerned about. It's more a matter of principle, and the fact that every use of their software possibly contributes to their reputation and appeal to highly qualified developers.

Yep, participation is a form of advocacy.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#110

Post by saym »

phinnaeus wrote: post #104
chrischen wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in US don't really use Whatsapp. iOS users do use iMessage and Android use Hangouts.

Do android users actually uses Hangouts? I have a couple of friends on it but my understanding is that Android users (like myself) just stick with standard SMS/MMS in the US. Patiently waiting for Universal RCS to take off...

I know this is just anecdotal, but my friends and I do heavily use Hangouts.

It doesn't have enough functionality on its own, but I've augmented our experience with a chatbot powered by https://github.com/hangoutsbot/hangoutsbot.

Obviously I don't think that this experience is typical, not everyone is a programmer or has a server on which to run it.

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