Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out • Hacker News Board

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#51

Post by ardit33 » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:02 PM UTC

l33tbro wrote: post #32

Facebook isn't going anywhere for a long time. They'll retain the privacy-clueless fossils with FB. They'll keep the aspirational set with IG. Anything even remotely competitive or alternative they'll just throw cash at and snap up.

Unless it becomes so uncool that you are lame if you still actively use it...

eg. like having a myspace, or a .hotmail, or a @aol email account

Social networks have to be both useful and trendy in order to fully succeed....

messenger and whatsup are both very useful, FB itself is less, and it needs to be somewhat trendy in order to survive

Personally I find fb very useful to keep up with family and friends, but that might be not be the same for other people, especially very young folks

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#52

Post by focuser » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:02 PM UTC

TAForObvReasons wrote: post #43

manmal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FB‘s open source projects are one of the few things they are doing right, so why avoid them? AFAIK the licenses are ok, so they are interchangeable in the end as maintainers.

React may have changed to MIT but React-Native and other projects still use the BSD+Patents license. EDIT: this apparently was fixed last month.

React Native has been updated to MIT too: https://github.com/facebook/react-native/blob/master/LICENSE

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#53

Post by mecha9 » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

TAForObvReasons wrote: post #43

manmal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FB‘s open source projects are one of the few things they are doing right, so why avoid them? AFAIK the licenses are ok, so they are interchangeable in the end as maintainers.

React may have changed to MIT but React-Native and other projects still use the BSD+Patents license. EDIT: this apparently was fixed last month.

Actually now React Native uses the MIT license, this was changed in February: https://github.com/facebook/react-native/commit/26684cf3adf4...

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#54

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

TAForObvReasons wrote: post #43

manmal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FB‘s open source projects are one of the few things they are doing right, so why avoid them? AFAIK the licenses are ok, so they are interchangeable in the end as maintainers.

React may have changed to MIT but React-Native and other projects still use the BSD+Patents license. EDIT: this apparently was fixed last month.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#55

Post by kin » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

I genuinely believe that advertisers are only pulling out because it's the PR thing to do. There are many other companies that would love to take advantage of a less competitive bid for Facebook ad space and I have no doubt they will be taking advantage of it and will continue to spend boats of money on Facebook.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#56

Post by panarky » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

l33tbro wrote: post #32

Facebook isn't going anywhere for a long time. They'll retain the privacy-clueless fossils with FB. They'll keep the aspirational set with IG. Anything even remotely competitive or alternative they'll just throw cash at and snap up.

No, Facebook isn't going to die tomorrow. It'll still be around 5 years from now. After all, even AOL is still clinging to life.

But their valuation depends on extrapolating today's growth and cash flow into the future.

So even a slight slowdown in their growth rate or small reduction in margins can have a magnified effect on the company's valuation.

Since expectations of higher future valuation drives high compensation for strong performers, any hint of this unraveling will result in brain drain.

It's almost certainly already begun.

Yes, my mom will still be on Facebook in 5 years. But I won't be there, my kids won't be there, and my friends won't be there.

Since the network effect works in reverse, the users who remain will spend fewer minutes per day on Facebook and Instagram than they do today.

And ARPU is dismal for the fossils who think Facebook is the internet.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#57

Post by bitxbit » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #35

nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

I don't know if buying call options makes sense at this IV however.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#58

Post by gmmeyer » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:03 PM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #35

nugi wrote: post #13

This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

They went up on the app stores over the last week

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#59

Post by AznHisoka » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:04 PM UTC

bitxbit wrote: post #57

gonehome wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please - the overreaction from this is ridiculous. I'm buying FB call options. Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus). The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.

I don't know if buying call options makes sense at this IV however.

especially since its still up a decent amount in the past year.

Re: Facebook has lost $100B in 10 days and now advertisers are pulling out

#60

Post by tomc1985 » Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:04 PM UTC

manmal wrote: post #33

amelius wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. I don't necessarily consider myself top-talent, but I'm personally avoiding facebook's open source projects (e.g. React) because I don't approve of their company values.

FB‘s open source projects are one of the few things they are doing right, so why avoid them? AFAIK the licenses are ok, so they are interchangeable in the end as maintainers.

> AFAIK the licenses are ok

What about that patent license noncompetition thing? That's cool? Or did that get pulled?