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Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

nytimes.com

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Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#121

Post by rgbrenner »

spaceribs wrote: post #118
rgbrenner wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how else do you imagine scenarios like these are tested? Normally there aren't a lot of people willing to jump randomly out in front of cars to test their reaction.

I really don't know. Even with all the hours of recorded road time by Google/Uber used as a testbed for proper driving conditions, most machine learning systems still suffer from figuring out ways of cheating[1], and in those cases it could be fatal. [1] "The program even learns how to take advantage of bugs and glitches, like timing jumps so that Mario begins falling again at the exact time that he makes contact wit…

That's a problem for the test design. Maybe we can develop an approach that uses more randomness to test these systems.

But I dont see how you can avoid having a simulation. These events are just too rare to wait until they occur in real life.

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#122

Post by vkou »

maym86 wrote: post #74
vkou wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only cheaper because it's operating at a loss. Taxis do not operate at a loss.

But why does it need to be? I would still take a Lyft/Uber because the service is better, even at the same price.

Once all the full-time taxi drivers are out of their traditional cab job, who do you think they will drive for?

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#123

Post by beamatronic »

chrsstrm wrote: post #103
hunter23 wrote: post #63

This is how I would deal with it if I was a regulator: * Revoke Uber's license to operate - While they might not be found at fault, they have shown gross negligence by having an operator that doesn't observe the road, computer vision that can't sense a pedestrian crossing several lanes even when their LIDAR manufacturer says they could, and an algorithm which encouraged the car to speed 3 mph over the limit when it w…

When does the next batch of YC applications open up? I'd like to introduce TestTrack - Autonomous vehicle certification as a service. State (and federal) governments collaborate with us to develop a certification plan that AV makers must pass before being allowed to operate in their state. With a plan in hand, AV makers and state reps meet at one of our regional test tracks to implement the custom tests. Obstacle avo…

You have to work blockchain into there somehow, looks good otherwise

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#124

Post by maym86 »

cnfsdgradstdnt wrote: post #97
googlemike wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something to note - a mile is a mile here. I can buy an off the shelf tesla and have it do laps on my neighborhood street until the cows come home, this is not the same kind of mile as downtown SF in peak traffic.

I don't think majority of those miles are in SF. I expect most would be in CA suburban towns like mountain view where for the past few years I'd see a waymo car basically Everytime I drove for more than 10 minutes

The conditions under which Uber failed are similar to those in Mountain View if there was no traffic (which there rarely is). I suspect Google's car would not have had the same issues.

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#125

Post by radlad »

danso wrote: post #80
fabian2k wrote: post #19

> Waymo, formerly the self-driving car project of Google, said that in tests on roads in California last year, its cars went an average of nearly 5,600 miles before the driver had to take control from the computer to steer out of trouble. As of March, Uber was struggling to meet its target of 13 miles per “intervention” in Arizona There can certainly be arguments about whether the kind of miles driven are equivalent…

> As of March, Uber was struggling to meet its target of 13 miles per “intervention” in Arizona To be fair, Uber is not necessarily acting badly -- especially since AZ doesn't appear to care either way -- having the safety driver is ostensibly supposed to make the AV at least as safe as if it were a regular human-driven car. I hope during the investigation we find out whether Uber made it clear to its human drivers t…

As a human driver, when do you know to take control of the vehicle and start stopping? At 100 feet? 200 feet? 300 feet (a football field?)

A quick Google[1] suggests the average stopping distance of a human traveling 35mph is 95 feet (including reaction time.) The promise of autonomous is 60 feet. If the human decides to stop at 60 feet, it's too late. If they stop before that, how do they know if the vehicle is working properly?

1. http://www.brakingdistances.com/35Mph

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#126

Post by cozzyd »

habosa wrote: post #43
cozzyd wrote: post #5

I thought the conventional wisdom was that the only way Uber can become profitable was through autonomous vehicles. It sounds like they're very unlikely to succeed at that... Arizona should consider improving their regulations to try to avoid additional fatalities.

They could always buy from someone else ... but uber seems to have extreme competitor paranoia when it comes to buying any services. I think they also spent $500M to make their own maps when you could use any of the popular mapping APIs out there.

I'm not fully up to speed, but I thought Lyft and Waymo had something of a partnership.

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#127

Post by srj »

ojbyrne wrote: post #71
rjvir wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting how so many techies initially had the knee-jerk reaction of "well, despite this accident, I bet these Uber autonomous cars are still safer than humans". It seems like all information available to us suggests the polar opposite.

After nearly getting hit by a car while on a crosswalk in broad daylight today, I don't think "polar opposite" is correct. I actually made eye contact with the driver, and expected her to slow down (I was right in the middle of the street). Instead she sped up to get through the crosswalk ahead of me.

I've had this happen to me so many times. It's insane that driving laws aren't strict in proportion to how much damage an irresponsible driver can inflict.

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#128

Post by flylib »

chrsstrm wrote: post #103
hunter23 wrote: post #63

This is how I would deal with it if I was a regulator: * Revoke Uber's license to operate - While they might not be found at fault, they have shown gross negligence by having an operator that doesn't observe the road, computer vision that can't sense a pedestrian crossing several lanes even when their LIDAR manufacturer says they could, and an algorithm which encouraged the car to speed 3 mph over the limit when it w…

When does the next batch of YC applications open up? I'd like to introduce TestTrack - Autonomous vehicle certification as a service. State (and federal) governments collaborate with us to develop a certification plan that AV makers must pass before being allowed to operate in their state. With a plan in hand, AV makers and state reps meet at one of our regional test tracks to implement the custom tests. Obstacle avo…

ironically Uber currently has a business in this exact area

"Returning to the files, I soon found the puzzle piece. It was in a document Otto had submitted in support of its application to operate the state’s first Autonomous Technology Certification Facility (ATCF). This is an independent organization that will assess all autonomous vehicles that want to operate (rather than just test) in Nevada, checking that they comply with the state’s safety requirements and traffic laws. The application was a success, and construction of the facility is now underway in a suburb of Las Vegas. (Yes, you read that right — Uber will soon be assessing other companies’ compliance with safety rules.)"

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/how-my-public-records-request-...

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#129

Post by CapacitorSet »

aresant wrote: post #48

I just don't fully understand why Uber is attempting to compete at the technology level. The most important components, like the Lidar systems, are all third party and non-exclusive. And the likely current market leader in the tech - Waymo - has made many indications that they see their largest opportunity as providing the technology through partnerships. Heck there's even been noise recently that Uber IS trying to l…

Such is the nature of free-market economies: companies will go to great lengths, even wasting billions of dollars and thousands of man-days, for the sake of "competition".

Re: Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash

#130

Post by notahacker »

spaceribs wrote: post #112
notahacker wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think most current human drivers would also expect to spend significant time in jail for causing death by driving so careless they didn't even try to brake when confronted by an pedestrian in the roadway (even if she shouldn't have been there and an accident may not have been entirely avoidable) I'm fine with Uber's executives and programmers accepting the same level of culpability as an alternative to meeting…

Tests allow irresponsible people to blame the test when their system fails, I worry that a system like that will cause the opposite of your intentions.

Human drivers don't get to cite their test passes when their driving fails either. The point isn't that [overoptimisation to pass] tests should be the be only thing on which they are judged, the point is that if autonomous driving system developers want the special privilege of not being held as strictly liable as humans for erratic driving resulting from decisions they made, they really ought to expect more stringent testing regimes.
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