Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns • Hacker News Board

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#121

Post by ram_rar » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:01 PM UTC

thedevil wrote: post #47

Around 2008, I read some public filings by banks. I made only two back-of-the-napkin adjustments: 1) I combined off-balance sheet assets and liabilities into the balance sheet, and 2) I changed the expected % losses to approximately that of Wells Fargo. With those two simple adjustments, I saw that some big banks were in the hole by (combined) tens of billions of dollars. The market prices for these banks made it cle…

assuming your account was FDIC insured. then why even bother taking out money less than minimum FDIC assured sum.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#122

Post by whatok » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:03 PM UTC

Two things I can gather from this if it happened to hold true across the hedge fund universe:

1. Large shops employ a lot of fundamental analysts and larger funds only get large through outperformance.

2. Less on the fundamental side, funds regardless of size that have automated retrieval (and likely processing of public filings) probably have a higher than average disciplined investment process which leads to outperformance.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#123

Post by batterseapower » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:14 PM UTC

source99 wrote: post #88

How did the university get the IP addresses of computers that access the SEC website?

Public info: https://www.sec.gov/dera/data/edgar-log-file-data-set.html

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#124

Post by dsfyu404ed » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:41 PM UTC

otalp wrote: post #106

RivieraKid wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your opinion on Tesla? Many people who read their financial documents say their situation is really bad.

Not OP but Tesla's stock is certainly overvalued(Musk said so himself). Their future depends on if they can scale without QA issues - so far even producing a few hundred model 3s a week they seem to be struggling with defects and problems in the delivered cars. The one distinguishing factor is that they have terrific brand value because of Musk, and this could mean that consumers would want their cars despite all the…

>People who hear that say, Lexus are doing badly and have severe problems with their cars are going to go buy an Audi.

If you're buying something where a large part of the value is in the image/brand it's usually not fashionable to complain about it.

When a S10 breaks it's GM's fault. When a Tacoma breaks the owner didn't treat it right.

When a Kia breaks it's unreliable. When a BMW breaks that's just part of owning a BMW.

Tesla has cultivated an image (or rabid bunch of fanboys, depending on your perspective) where you're expected to put up with shoddy build quality and less than prompt service as part of the ownership experience so Tesla gets a pass on those things.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#125

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:52 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #120

valdiorn wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has worked for one such secretive hedge fund in the past, and has for a long time been very interested in Renaissance, I'd be curious to know what your source of this information is. Any chance you could share some more insight?

Do you mean G Research? Not sure that one really qualifies as “secretive”, they’ve been recruiting from my Masters programme at Oxford years ago (albeit under a different name).

[deleted]

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#126

Post by NotSammyHagar » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:52 PM UTC

otalp wrote: post #106

RivieraKid wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your opinion on Tesla? Many people who read their financial documents say their situation is really bad.

Not OP but Tesla's stock is certainly overvalued(Musk said so himself). Their future depends on if they can scale without QA issues - so far even producing a few hundred model 3s a week they seem to be struggling with defects and problems in the delivered cars. The one distinguishing factor is that they have terrific brand value because of Musk, and this could mean that consumers would want their cars despite all the…

Even if they succeed on the m3 they are overvalued. I have bought and sold it several times. I think they'll succeed, hard to see if they will justify their stock price because other car companies can slowly build reasonable evs. look at the bolt - it's a credible car. It apparently loses a lot of money, thats whey don't make enough to meet market demand (unlike other gm cars).

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#127

Post by ChrisLomont » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 7:53 PM UTC

mfoy_ wrote: post #83

gameswithgo wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If there were less political intervention into financial markets then solid financial analysis would win almost every time What empirical evidence exists to support this belief?

"Bailout"

You mean loans that were repaid? That were forced on many banks to prevent signaling, to lessen the chance of a run on the banks?

That's not the evidence requested.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#128

Post by georgeek » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:11 PM UTC

dsacco wrote: post #64

valdiorn wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has worked for one such secretive hedge fund in the past, and has for a long time been very interested in Renaissance, I'd be curious to know what your source of this information is. Any chance you could share some more insight?

Sure. 1. I'm friends with multiple people who used to work at Renaissance, and I've directly spoken with folks who are currently there (among other, similar firms). 2. I've read the research published by professors and post-docs before they were hired. 3. I have first hand experience developing forecasts for various market research firms and many hedge funds. I've seen first hand what the difference is between the fi…

There is also something else: some funds have become so good in putting the right orders in the book that they don't need statistics so much to generate alpha.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#129

Post by dumbass123 » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #112

chollida1 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2 things about this. 1) if you are a fund you just cant' sit out 3 years. Your fund will shut down as everyone will yank their money,. if its your own money then people will leave as you won't pay bonuses. 2) If you went short in 2006 then you wouldn't have survived until teh crash of late 2008. > It's pretty easy to make way above average returns on the stock market. This is just an absurd statement along the lines…

The limitations of fund structuring aren’t my concern. I’ve been investing for decades and it’s trivial to beat the market if you’re patient and knowledgeable about tech. The fact that funds do worse than indexed etfs says more about fund incentives and investor savviness than it does about the effectiveness of this strategy.

Ok. A fuck ton of metrics show the market is currently overvalued. Are you going to put on a short and just sit and wait? How much money might you be losing in the meantime? What's the opportunity cost of having your money sit there while it could be earning returns elsewhere?

Last year equity index vol was ridiculously low. Tons of hedge funds held long volatility positions and kept rolling. Even with the events earlier this year, they still ended up down money on the position.

If you really think investing off business cycles is long term profitable, you don't know what you're talking about.

Re: Hedge-fund managers that do the most research will post the best returns

#130

Post by hinkley » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 8:17 PM UTC

The only time I hosted a booth at a trade show, I got a few people who sounded interested in our product at first but who quickly tangented off into more general questions.

As one of my coworkers explained, there are investors of varying caliber wandering around and they often aren’t interested in your company. They’re getting the gestalt from the show floor by picking any brain that will give them the time of day.