BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#21

Post by toomuchtodo » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:28 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #18

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

The dealer network is an unnecessary middle man acting as a parasite extracting value from the system.

You can enforce the right to repair through legislation without dealers.

> What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable electric vehicles.

The battery supply chain is the hardest part, but EV powertrains are so much more simple than an internal combustion powertrain. There is very little maintenance required on an EV drivetrain as well. That's why Tesla is warrantying their Semi drivetrains for a million miles.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#22

Post by whoisjuan » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Probably not, but they don't care about Tesla either. Tesla is pretty far from being a car industry incumbent. Basically, Tesla is doing all the dirty job of validating the market for the incumbents.

Companies like VW actually have the know-how and years of experience to scale any electric car ambitions very rapidly. Tesla is still trying to figure out how to mass produce cars and based on the current velocity of the Model 3 production they still have a bunch of things to learn and figure out.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#23

Post by dangrossman » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many many years to have the capacity to sell car manufacturers enough batteries for a few million cars a year by the end of the decade. The price per kWh still makes the battery in a car like the Chevy Bolt a $8000 part, which means you're never going to make a $15K car with one inside. That price has been dropping year over year, and around 2020 is when it'll be cheap enough to make cars in the price range people actually buy them that have big batteries inside.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#24

Post by toomuchtodo » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:30 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #17

ChuckMcM wrote: post #15

GM reached the same conclusion when it built the EV-1. I expect that there are tremendous forces inside a company that push back on the sort of radical change that electric cars represent. The difference between then and now is Tesla. I wonder if anyone asked BMW if they were given the opportunity to mass produce the Model 3, if they would have the same opinion. As for looks, the i8 looks pretty nice. It is apparentl…

To be fair to GM, batteries improved a great deal since the EV-1. I know there is a crowd of people that are enthusiastic about the EV-1 and think GM killed it, but I'm pretty sure GM had a closer look at whether they could profitably produce them than the enthusiasts.

GM could've handed the EV-1s over to the owners instead of crushing them.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#25

Post by sillypuddy » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:31 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #18

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

Could be that electric cars just require less maintenance.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#26

Post by lttlrck » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

How does it eliminate dealer service revenue? If anything goes wrong on a car these days it has been my experience it's quite unlikely to be anything specific to ICE. It'll be electromechanical (mirrors, seats, windows, locks), electrical (heating, cooling), mechanical (suspension bushes, axle boots, springs) and the biggest wear items brake and tires also remain...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#27

Post by sschueller » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #21

sschueller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

The dealer network is an unnecessary middle man acting as a parasite extracting value from the system. You can enforce the right to repair through legislation without dealers. > What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable electric vehicles. The battery supply chain is the hardest part, but EV powertrains are so much more simple than an internal combustion powertrain. T…

Funny thing is there is already legislation and laws for the right to repair yet Tesla is able to go around it.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#28

Post by athenot » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I've had 2 Nissan LEAF so far and I don't agree that all EVs are "ugly and undesireable". But I do agree that the i3 looks a lot more like a flashy concept car than a production design.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#29

Post by athenot » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:33 PM UTC

dangrossman wrote: post #23

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

It's also not helping that oil is relatively cheap at the moment.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#30

Post by jarito » Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

maxerickson wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair to GM, batteries improved a great deal since the EV-1. I know there is a crowd of people that are enthusiastic about the EV-1 and think GM killed it, but I'm pretty sure GM had a closer look at whether they could profitably produce them than the enthusiasts.

GM could've handed the EV-1s over to the owners instead of crushing them.

They really couldn't. If I remember correctly, US law requires that a dealer provide replacement parts for publicly sold vehicles for 10 years. If you have a small run of cars with very custom parts like the EV-1, the cost of maintaining that capacity is likely prohibitive, so you kill them.