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Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

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Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#341
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1. Calling this speeding is willful ignorance of the practical flow of traffic everywhere in the country.

Police write tickets for being 3mph over the speed limit. Can’t speak for other states but California DMV test does not give any kind of allowance to go over the speed limit. So why is this “ignorance”?

The DMV might not give any allowance but enforcement is no where as harsh in California. The i-5 in Southern California is filled with people cruising at 80 (even the highway patrol!), 15 miles above the limit and no one gets a ticket.

The same could be said for the 85 and 101 in the Bay, where the cruising speed is 75-80 during low traffic and almost always in the carpool lanes.

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#342
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why autonomous vehicles are so big. Virtually all travel is one person, ideally it would be a tiny 4 wheel electric with the sole passenger highly reclined. The hangover from internal combustion is real.

The same reason non-autonomous ones are so big. It's a status symbol, plus there's the arms race of "bigger truck wins in an accident"

> bigger truck wins in an accident

And that's why I go by tram. :)

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#343

My takeaway from the comments in this thread: self-driving Ubers don't drive defensively, almost surely can't "read" pedestrian behavior, and even with lidar may never have seen Elaine Herzberg. Oh, and they speed. This sounds like straight out of the "hell" scenario for driverless cars: "we cannot accept responsibility for what happens to pedestrians and cyclists foolish enough to stray out of their designated safe…

I don't see why autonomous vehicles are so big. Virtually all travel is one person, ideally it would be a tiny 4 wheel electric with the sole passenger highly reclined. The hangover from internal combustion is real.

It's a test-vehicle, not the end-product.

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#344

My takeaway from the comments in this thread: self-driving Ubers don't drive defensively, almost surely can't "read" pedestrian behavior, and even with lidar may never have seen Elaine Herzberg. Oh, and they speed. This sounds like straight out of the "hell" scenario for driverless cars: "we cannot accept responsibility for what happens to pedestrians and cyclists foolish enough to stray out of their designated safe…

>Oh, and they speed.

3mph variance is perfectly normal even on modern cruise control. And even on most modern cards, what you see on the speedometer is often off by ~1 mph at low speeds, and even more at higher speeds. (This is the reason you will often see people talk about 'GPS verified' speeds when it comes to talking about the top speed they have achieved in a car). Federal law in the US only requires they be accurate within 5% when using a standard tire size on normal pavement with the recommended tire air pressure. If you have over or under-inflated tires or have upgraded your car to larger tires for whatever reason, this 5% might become a very different. Even if the Uber was perfectly maintained, that could be 1.75mph variance on the speedometer @ 35mph.

Keeping to exactly the speed limit also just isn't how anyone drives. It wouldn't be, even if speedometers were perfectly accurate. It's impractical. It's hugely fuel inefficient. Everyday driving, be it by person or cruise control, involves accelerating and then letting off the gas. This means if you are targeting a speed limit of 35, you're swinging a few mph in either direction. Add in things like changing road conditions - every highway I've ever driven on will have random patches of road that are made up of different material or different levels of wear after having had potholes, etc, repaired - changes in road incline, weather conditions (winds), or even the behavior of cars in front of you - a vehicle changing lanes is going to result in different air resistance, especially larger vehicles, and plenty of other variables, makes the idea that any vehicle should be kept at exactly the speed limit is pretty unreasonable.

Speedometers aren't perfect. Cruise control or even excellent human driving will never keep you at exactly the speed limit. While saying going '38 MPH in a 35 MPH Zone is speeding' is technically accurate, it's not particularly useful.

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#345

My takeaway from the comments in this thread: self-driving Ubers don't drive defensively, almost surely can't "read" pedestrian behavior, and even with lidar may never have seen Elaine Herzberg. Oh, and they speed. This sounds like straight out of the "hell" scenario for driverless cars: "we cannot accept responsibility for what happens to pedestrians and cyclists foolish enough to stray out of their designated safe…

The google maps streetview sign says 45, so the car was not speeding. The article most likely had a typo... edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/85ozqr/exc...

"The police said that the vehicle was traveling 38 miles per hour in a 35 mile-per-hour zone, according to the Chronicle—though a Google Street View shot of the roadway taken last July shows a speed limit of 45 miles per hour along that stretch of road."

(https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-uber-self-...)

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should not be able to speed arbitrarily, but it seems sensible that they would match the prevailing traffic speed. One car carefully observing a 30mph limit creates a hazard when everyone else is going 35-40.

Going at speed limit NEVER creates a hazard. It is always the drivers going over or under it. I am not getting a speeding ticket for peer pressure. If you want to speed then you can pass me at your own risk.

Going the speed limit OFTEN creates a hazard. Technically speeding is not "exceeding the speed limit" but "driving too fast for conditions." In a torrential downpour with slick roads and poor visibility, the legal speed limit may easily be too fast for conditions, and you can be ticketed--to pick one scenario that refutes your "NEVER." And driving the speed limit in the passing lane creates an obstacle to faster traffic trying to get by, a frustration and a hazard. There was a video of some idiot "pranksters" with your exact attitude that created a rolling roadblock on a freeway by coordinating five cars to drive abreast at the exact speed limit, proving ... something. They were ticketed for hazardous driving. cthalupa is correct, though more diplomatic than I. It's more hazardous to be out of step with the surrounding traffic flow than it is to "speed."

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what my hypothesis: when it's physically impossible to stop (which sounds like it was the case, car moving at 38mph and you have a split second), my hypothesis is that the robot would plan to swerve around the obstacle instead of trying to stop. But the car can't turn 90 degrees immediately either so that could also be dynamically infeasible, but maybe it has higher probability to avoid the collision?

You're opening yet another can of worms when you try to evade. Sometimes it's the right/optimal thing to do, sometimes it's worse (e.g. switch to the lane going in the opposite direction because it seems free - until another car your computer eyes could not see comes quickly around a corner and there are four dead instead of one; that's one of the reasons driving instructors tell us, at least in my country, to do a f…

But that is due to the limited ability of humans to asses all those conditions instantly in a sudden unpredictable situation. The machines should in theory be much better at that.

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#348

Odd the damage should be on the passenger side if she darted from the center median. Odd they see the need to add the conjecture that she may have been homeless. Curious too is that the center divider where she likely was has has a nice walkway on it with a street lamp[2] I'm suddenly quite curious about what is going on. Accident site: https://www.google.com/maps/@33.4369934,-111.9429875,3a,75y,... from https://imgu…

You appear to be suggesting that multiple levels of police watched the videos, GPS tracking, lidar scene, all recorded by the on-board systems and have deliberately suppressed what really happened. I can believe an Uber employee being paid to cover this up but whatever your views of the police, I don't believe they would suppress something that could so obviously be a major public health issue.

And it's common in police reports to identify the victim and where they're from. The point about the carrier bags and the homelessness is that they've been unable to verify her sitation; they're explaining why. Nothing strange here.

But I guess there's no convincing you without providing you the snuff film of it all happening.

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#349
post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Seeing as the cars have been on the road in Arizona for a while, and this is the first we are hearing about a pedestrian collision, it seems the algorithm is pretty safe. One fatality in 4 million miles is safe? Humans are 20 times better than that.

>> One fatality in 4 million miles is safe? Humans are 20 times better than that. And this is considering the fatality rate for all human drivers, including those that are drunk, playing on their smartphone, sleepy, speeding, street racing, etc. I would not be surprised if those cases account for a very sizable majority of fatal car accidents. Now imagine you would reduce those numbers by relatively simple measures t…

And conversely, those 4 million miles will (presumably) be highly biased to safe/above-standard driving conditions.

As you've basically said, the human stats include all the very worst drivers in the full range of driving conditions, whereas the auto-cars not only have the very best driving conditions, but likely also have the statistical benefit of a likely number of cases where the human actually stepped in and upped the auto-car score even further (since we can't account for the auto-car deaths/fatalities that humans have successfully stepped in and stopped).

Re: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> One fatality in 4 million miles is safe? Humans are 20 times better than that. And this is considering the fatality rate for all human drivers, including those that are drunk, playing on their smartphone, sleepy, speeding, street racing, etc. I would not be surprised if those cases account for a very sizable majority of fatal car accidents. Now imagine you would reduce those numbers by relatively simple measures t…

And conversely, those 4 million miles will (presumably) be highly biased to safe/above-standard driving conditions. As you've basically said, the human stats include all the very worst drivers in the full range of driving conditions, whereas the auto-cars not only have the very best driving conditions, but likely also have the statistical benefit of a likely number of cases where the human actually stepped in and upp…

Yes, so far the statistics we have about the safety of AI cars are mostly meaningless to say anything useful about how they would scale if applied universally.

Another thing that bothers me is how often the argument 'human drivers are terrible, far worse than computers for situations A, B, C, etc' is used to suggest that AI systems will improve road safety. I will be the first to admit that many people are terrible drivers, they make mistakes, don't pay enough attention, don't obey traffic laws, have bad reaction times, etc, no argument there. But so far I have never seen any statistics about how many of the accidents caused by these kinds of human failures actually lead to fatalities. Taking the human out of the equation could in theory improve all kinds of car accidents, but how many would be just fender-benders as opposed to road fatalities? It's not like it is super-easy to accidentally cause a fatal road accident, and everyone knows one or more people who were involved in one. Who can prove that AI cars will not decrease the total number of accidents of any kind, but increase the kinds of accidents with fatalities, like this one with the Uber car? Maybe human drivers, with all their faults, would have avoided this particular accident by driving more defensively or using social cues to be more prepared for this woman crossing the street?

I'm not trying to make an argument about the viability of AI cars that are safer than humans here by the way. I personally don't believe AI cars will ever be safer overall than humans in all possible situations that people drive in, but that's a different discussion. What bugs me is that suddenly it seems as if the whole world is willing to bend over backwards to interpret statistics about the presumed safety of AI cars in the most favorable way possible, and at the same time ignore all these relatively simple things that could actually improve safety right now, at much lower costs than developing fully autonomous cars.

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