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Peak Oil is History

culturechange.org

31–40 of 63 posts

Re: Peak Oil is History

#31
post #19
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll probably be too busy fighting each other every step of the way. I don't know much about SA's situation but I'm going to take a guess that it was the pro-apartheid government that made it happen. Maybe they weren't so consumed about fighting with each other since they had a common enemy to focus on. I'm somewhat convinced we're at the point in the US where the opposition party (either one) would sabotage the pla…

> Maybe they weren't so consumed about fighting with each other since they had a common enemy to focus on. And who would this “common enemy” be? The Spiel that white people considered black people their enemies during Apartheid is a bit incorrect (yet a popular sentiment in the west). It is ironic that statistically, the plight of the majority of black people is now far worse in SA than during Apartheid (life expecta…

Your rant doesn't mention that benign-sounding "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of the land, even though they formed by far the largest population group in South Africa.

Nor does it mention the fact that generations of blacks were forced by state policy into inferior "Bantu Education". Nor does it mention the fact that the migrant labour system, coupled with the other degrading laws to deprive blacks of economic and social freedom helped wreck the fabric of black society.

I am as disgusted by the current ruling party's corruption as anyone, and I am appalled by the way the west generally seems to turn a blind eye to its massive failings.

Apartheid was designed to turn black people into failures, and into an exploitable manual labour pool. And any attempt to decouple apartheid from its aftermath is, at best, highly inaccurate.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#32
Interesting, but he wants a bit too much collapse to be inevitable. The current crisis is probably related to the 2006-2007 oil prices hike (the first actual effects of Peak Oil), and the situation will remain so for a decade or two : oil prices climb, demand is killed off, crisis ensue, prices drop, partial recovery comes, and we start the cycle again.

That means that instead of a brutal collapse, we'll live a state of depression, recession and incomplete recovery for the next decades, with at some point an inflexion from less growth to more depression. That's what we have to get prepared to.

Related papers :

* Rubin and Buchanan crisis analysis: http://www.manicore.com/fichiers/Rubin_Buchanan_CIBC.pdf

* Lloyds 360° risk insight : http://www.manicore.com/fichiers/LLoyds_Chatam_House_froggat...

Re: Peak Oil is History

#33
post #31
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe they weren't so consumed about fighting with each other since they had a common enemy to focus on. And who would this “common enemy” be? The Spiel that white people considered black people their enemies during Apartheid is a bit incorrect (yet a popular sentiment in the west). It is ironic that statistically, the plight of the majority of black people is now far worse in SA than during Apartheid (life expecta…

Your rant doesn't mention that benign-sounding "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of the land, even though they formed by far the largest population group in South Africa. Nor does it mention the fact that generations of blacks were forced by state policy into inferior "Bantu Education". Nor does it mention the fact that the migrant labour system,…

Look here, I am not in support of Apartheid (or the current system for that matter). The fact is that Apartheid could not work (for a multitude of reasons, including economic reasons). But a lot of attacks on Apartheid ignore the basic facts and do not perform a simple statistical comparison with the NSA.

> "separate development and rule for all ethnic and cultural groups" under Apartheid forced blacks onto 13% of the land, even though they formed by far the largest population group in South Africa.

What does this number include? Blacks were deprived of their land well before “Apartheid” started. During the creation of homelands, white people also lost their land (land was bought and sold to create contiguous homelands). A good example is the large farms of Lisbon, Berlin, etc… that became KwaNdebele.

It is clear that the deprivation of land from black people is wrong. But the fact is that most of the depravation/deprivation was done well before Apartheid.

> Nor does it mention the fact that generations of blacks were forced by state policy into inferior "Bantu Education"

Bantu education was inferior, that is a fact. But it is a question of resources. During Apartheid more money was spend on Bantu education than on the education of white people (although less per capita). White people almost exclusively pay taxation (as is still more or less true today).

The problem is that there are only so many math teachers, etc…

By the way, Bantu education is vastly superior to all education that every person in South Africa receives. This is not my opinion, but the opinion of Dr. Mamphela Ramphele and prof. Jonathan Jansen. OBE failed.

Even South Africa’s president Zuma, said the following of the previous education minister:

> This comes shortly after ANC president Jacob Zuma blamed former education minister Kader Asmal for closing down these institutions, causing more damage to education than had been done under apartheid. http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?art_id=vn20080425091635396C60...

There were a lot of teacher colleges whose function it was to train teachers. These colleges were often in rural areas and focussed towards black people. The ANC government closed down basically all these colleges, leaving SA in a severe shortage of (black) teachers (and people in these places without the opportunity to get education).

How many black universities did Apartheid government build? I can think of quite a few (MEDUNSA, University of the North, University of Venda, several Technicons, etc…). How many was built by the ANC government? None – they however closed down colleges.

Why wasn’t there at least a University built in the past 20 years in Mpumalanga? The province doesn’t have a single university.

> Nor does it mention the fact that the migrant labour system,

Migration is a natural cause of South Africa’s industrialization. The population is still rural and development is in the cities.

What you should bear in mind is that Apartheid government tried to get industrial development started in black and rural areas. This was done by means such as development zones (e.g. Babelegi) and making companies in homelands free from VAT.

Another thing that the NP government was fearful for was that black unemployment would lead to revolution. There were active programs in order to reduce unemployment. During Apartheid, SA’s unemployment was much lower than it is now. Do you know what unemployment is now? Narrow definition 25,3% (people who are actively looking for work but do not find any: http://www.statssa.gov.za/keyindicators/keyindicators.asp). Broad definition (people who are capable of work but have given up) is over 40%! (see articles by Kingdon, G. and J. Knight)

This had another effect – spreading development around the country. Now we have a lot of development in cities, but many rural areas are basically abandoned. Rural areas (where many black people live) have now extremely high unemployment rates and there is almost zero industry. The ANC abandoned the country site to its own fate.

> Apartheid was designed to turn black people into failures, and into an exploitable manual labour pool.

That is debatable. The primary goal of Apartheid was arguably to ensure the existence and security of minority white people (from real and perceived threats such as communism (“Rooi gevaar”) and black crime (“Swart gevaar”).

The amount of money spent on black education (e.g. universities) would indicate that the “exploitable labour pool” theory is not completely correct. I would like to remind you amount of black teachers and craftsmen trained during Apartheid were much higher than it is now.

I personally suspect that the aim of the ANC government is to create very stupid and untrained voting cattle while cultivating a very small and rich black elite with close ANC ties.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#34
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe they weren't so consumed about fighting with each other since they had a common enemy to focus on. And who would this “common enemy” be? The Spiel that white people considered black people their enemies during Apartheid is a bit incorrect (yet a popular sentiment in the west). It is ironic that statistically, the plight of the majority of black people is now far worse in SA than during Apartheid (life expecta…

> The Spiel that white people considered black people their enemies during Apartheid Presumably what was meant was the common enemy was not the "darkies" but the rest of the world coming together and imposing sanctions. > Yet the ideology of full democracy (i.e. tyranny of the majority) is also spectacularly failing. Yet no one would acknowledge the latter failings. Naomi Klein does in The Shock Doctrine and a heck o…

> but the rest of the world coming together and imposing sanctions.

Maybe. It is just ironic that they are standing in line to do business with countries such as Equatorial Guinea (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teodoro_Obiang_Nguema_Mbasogo) and Saudi Arabia.

> Naomi Klein does in The Shock Doctrine and a heck of a lot of people have read that book.

I am not a big fan of Naomi Klein. She probably attacked the governments macro economic policy?

That is unfortunately the only thing that the ANC government did right in the past 16 years (this is now probably going to change with Zuma).

The reason for SA's macroeconomic policy was probably because previous prez. Mbeki did a masters degree in economics at a British university.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#35
As the price of oil goes up, alternatives for the various uses of oil will appear. There are plenty of those already, they are just not economically viable. At the same time, everything is still getting cheaper and we are faring better and better. I don't see why the net result couldn't be a switch away from oil that takes a few decades, without our (increasing) wellbeing being jeopardized.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#36
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Econtalk had an episode about carbon shortage recently. It turns out that synthetic fuels manufactured from coal become economical far before petroleum is totally gone. And there are other more expensive technologies that come into play when the coal is gone. All the while, renewable energy is getting cheaper by the year. Here's the link. It is a fascinating podcast, though it wanders a bit near the end: http://www.e…

ideally there should be a solar-wind-powered atmospheric CO2/H20 to hydrocarbon synthesis device in every backyard, and i believe that's how our grand(grandgrand)children will operate. it'll take a while to get there, though.

Looking back at some of the things our grand parents expected us to have now, I would have to say predicting a lean green future seems a little foolish.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#37
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Econtalk had an episode about carbon shortage recently. It turns out that synthetic fuels manufactured from coal become economical far before petroleum is totally gone. And there are other more expensive technologies that come into play when the coal is gone. All the while, renewable energy is getting cheaper by the year. Here's the link. It is a fascinating podcast, though it wanders a bit near the end: http://www.e…

ideally there should be a solar-wind-powered atmospheric CO2/H20 to hydrocarbon synthesis device in every backyard, and i believe that's how our grand(grandgrand)children will operate. it'll take a while to get there, though.

You mean trees? The fit your description perfectly, except for the wind-powered part.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#38
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ideally there should be a solar-wind-powered atmospheric CO2/H20 to hydrocarbon synthesis device in every backyard, and i believe that's how our grand(grandgrand)children will operate. it'll take a while to get there, though.

Looking back at some of the things our grand parents expected us to have now, I would have to say predicting a lean green future seems a little foolish.

the slight difference is that both oil and coal will eventually run out and there will have to be a way to replace them - or make them.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#39
post #37
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ideally there should be a solar-wind-powered atmospheric CO2/H20 to hydrocarbon synthesis device in every backyard, and i believe that's how our grand(grandgrand)children will operate. it'll take a while to get there, though.

You mean trees? The fit your description perfectly, except for the wind-powered part.

almost, except trees take too long to grow and cars don't run very well on wood. i mean something that gets CO2 and H20 and yields gas, lpg, diesel or something else that can be put into your tank without making a trip to a refinery first.

see e.g. http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/08/12/bug.diesel/in... for the basic idea.

Re: Peak Oil is History

#40
post #28
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sasol, the world's largest coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL) producer, has stated that GTL becomes financially viable at $10-$20 a barrel while CTL reaches the same level at $50-$60 a barrel. So with the current price of oil at over $70, it's reasonable to assume that CTL, supplemented by GTL, could maintain prices at close to current levels.

I must admit I don't understand what this means? So Sasol could provide a replacement for oil that only costs 10-20$ per barrel? Why isn't everybody using their stuff now, instead of the 70$ "real" oil? Also, in my mind "peak oil" was actually just "peak fossile fuels" - how much more coal and gas is there than oil?

There's lots and lots of coal in all sorts of places. Wikipedia should give you the details.
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