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Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

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Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#81

Post by dheelus »

roymurdock wrote: post #76

No. spend any time outside the US and you’ll see the Facebook and WhatsApp are integral pieces of tech used extensively for business instead of the more photo sharing / news / groups way it’s used here. Unless Facebook was discovered to be doing very illegal things I wouldn’t count on anything changing, and even so they would potentially be fined and a few people fired ala Volkswagen but IMO extremely unlikely to be…

Can't upvote this enough. I was in India recently and Whatsapp is a de-facto mode of communication over there, more than email or SMS.

Also, FB for promoting businesses just makes sense.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#82

Post by SCdF »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #49
always_good wrote: post #18

Was it the end of Windows just because Windows 10 had some hoopla in the press about analytics and its auto-update? No, nobody cared. I mean, it was a meme that everyone made jokes about, even late night talk shows. But nobody cared.

Poor analogy. Most people with Windows computers can’t simply switch to Linux and expect their lives to be the same - they have file formats and IT department setups to maintain - while most people could quit Facebook and see no significant change in their lives, except perhaps for the better. And yes, people do care. I work at a top tier U.S. university, and in our college at least we have so far refused to update o…

> Poor analogy. Most people with Windows computers can’t simply switch to Linux and expect their lives to be the same - they have file formats and IT department setups to maintain - while most people could quit Facebook and see no significant change in their lives, except perhaps for the better.

The only way I keep up with a dozen or so people is via facebook: I don't have any other communication line to them. And I am tech savvy.

A lot of people wouldn't know where to begin without that platform there.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#83

Post by m_ke »

tammer wrote: post #47

Facebook is extremely valuable to an enormous number of people. The only thing that will end it is a non-profit competitor a la Wikipedia. This isn't my idea, & I expect to see one of these emerge and take over in the next 1-3 years.

As someone who deleted their facebook account 4-5 years ago I've been very tempted to build an open source not for profit version of FB.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#84

Post by decebalus1 »

I dislike Facebook and everything it stands for but I don't believe this to be the case. I think (don't have evidence) that what we're all seeing is a well-crafted media attack on Facebook similar to what happened to Uber recently.

Someone is either doing a power play in order to prove a point (perhaps Murdoch?) or actively trying to manipulate the stock price. It all starts with a bunch of articles/opinion pieces and the rest of the media herd follows because it's the trendiest thing to hate on and get traffic.

It will blow over soon enough. I think Google is next in line now as some classic `law enforcement vs privacy` stuff started showing up.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#85

Post by antisocial »

TomMarius wrote: post #68
ajb257 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it All the younger generation I know are big users of Instagram and WhatsApp - both FB properties.

I literally don't know anyone who uses Whatsapp, only Messenger. These things are very different across the world.

I live in the U.S. I use Whatsapp to connect with family members in another country. I have a Facebook account just for my informal HOA community posts. I have zero fb friends. I hope my HOA finds another means to communicate.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#86

Post by rm_-rf_slash »

beavis2 wrote: post #64
rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor analogy. Most people with Windows computers can’t simply switch to Linux and expect their lives to be the same - they have file formats and IT department setups to maintain - while most people could quit Facebook and see no significant change in their lives, except perhaps for the better. And yes, people do care. I work at a top tier U.S. university, and in our college at least we have so far refused to update o…

Off-topic, but.. > refused to update or support our Windows machines past 7 What's your long term strategy? Is there a silver bullet?

No silver bullet to my knowledge, although it helps to know that we aren’t the only ones who don’t trust 8 or 10, so Microsoft will either have to support 7 for a while or stabilize their later versions. Either way there’ll be hell to pay if Microsoft ditches 7 without adequately stabilizing later versions.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#87

Post by lucasverra »

TomMarius wrote: post #68
ajb257 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it All the younger generation I know are big users of Instagram and WhatsApp - both FB properties.

I literally don't know anyone who uses Whatsapp, only Messenger. These things are very different across the world.

Whatsapp is the market leader in mobile (and desktop) IM in LATAM & EU. YMMV but I would go with ~75-80%

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#88

Post by aylmao »

A common theme I notice in the question and the comments; respondents are not thinking globally or using numbers.

Just because in the US/Europe Facebook is getting bad press, or declining amongst young users, etc. doesn't mean that's the case in other countries.

The US isn't even Facebook's largest market anymore; it's India [1]. Sure, most money comes from the US/Candada region [2], but that's just now. As these countries' economies continue to grow the amount of money Facebook can make there will too. There's also strength in numbers; the US has around 300m people, the world minus China and the US has 5,400m others.

If you wanna make serious analysis you have to look at the numbers too. Facebook's active users worldwide aren't even stagnant; they are still growing at a fairly constant rate [3]. 2018 is not even close to being the end of facebook.

I see a ton of emotional and anecdotal comments here. The question itself is itself, I'd assume, based off the recent discussions here on HN and news articles around Facebook and Russia, and IMO written just to incite another hot Facebook thread since I'd assume anyone could guess that a $500+b company can't possibly die in 9 months. That's ok, but I am however surprised and disappointed by the lack of statistics and analysis though. I would've expected more from the HN community. I was hoping people here would like to stick more with facts, numbers and a rational view.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countries-...

[2]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average...

[3]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#89

Post by dpark »

anon230851370 wrote: post #66
dpark wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Essentially, it will die because it's the Harvey Weinstein of corporate America - and because all the #metoo victims find their voice, with a little help from the other studio heads which would like to see the monster disappear. What exactly are you trying to say about Facebook with this forced metaphor?

I'm not the original poster, but the metaphor clearly seems to be that Facebook is the dirty old man that many people don't want to get in bed with but feel they have to.

I would not call that clear. Especially following the comparison to the Stasi. It feels like chain of random ways to say "Facebook is bad".

That is a reasonable interpretation, though, so thanks.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#90

Post by oblio »

kerkeslager wrote: post #79

I really wish people would communicate better when talking about things like this. The vague language being used here puts an artificial cap on how in-depth answers to this question can actually be. Facebook isn't going to literally end (i.e. go bankrupt and dissolve) this year. It's too big to fail in that sense. Keep in mind that MySpace is still around. I'm guessing this isn't the kind of ending you're talking abo…

> Keep in mind that MySpace is still around.

More importantly, IBM "died" at least 10 times, Microsoft "died" at least a couple of times. Big companies have a huge shelf life, even in bad market conditions, if the management is half competent.

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