Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#11

Post by teamk » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:21 PM UTC

z2 wrote: post #6

What is the competitor threat or new rising star that will usurp Facebook's position as a people-connector? LinkedIn? WeChat? Facebook was in super growth mode by the time MySpace stagnated. Or does "end" mean something else, if not measured in users? Is it the year people realize that the idealized image of themselves and their thousands of friends not worth maintaining or checking?

I suspect there's also a fragmentation effect going on -- users are moving to WhatsApp for messaging, and Instagram for the social validation part.

Fortunately for Facebook they own both.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#12

Post by edf13 » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:22 PM UTC

mseebach wrote: post #2

No. I think you're overestimating how much bad press Facebook is actually getting outside the tech bubble. Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it, but that process has been underway for a few years now, and it will take many more years to complete (obviously offering Zuckerberg many chances to turn the ship around).

I don't think it is just within the tech bubble... here in the UK for example it is now mainstream news on a weekly basis.

It's at the tipping point where grandparents are starting to talk about the "snooping" and data gathering of Facebook.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#13

Post by searine » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:22 PM UTC

It's the end of young-people-facebook. FB isn't cool and hasn't been for awhile now.

Old-people-facebook will cling to life because it is part of the media-ecosystem now. So I won't expect a steep dropoff, but rather a slow gradual decline in users as they literally die off.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#14

Post by criddell » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:22 PM UTC

Where would Facebook users migrate to?

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#15

Post by amorphid » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:22 PM UTC

z2 wrote: post #6

What is the competitor threat or new rising star that will usurp Facebook's position as a people-connector? LinkedIn? WeChat? Facebook was in super growth mode by the time MySpace stagnated. Or does "end" mean something else, if not measured in users? Is it the year people realize that the idealized image of themselves and their thousands of friends not worth maintaining or checking?

Maybe it gets replaced by "micro-networks". Craigslist used to be the place to go all my classifieds needs. Now it's a cesspool of spam, garbage, and scams.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#16

Post by drakonka » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:23 PM UTC

The only thing still keeping me on FB is keeping updated and in touch with my cats' breeders. They like seeing photos of their kittens that we post, and I like keeping up to date with what they're doing. We're not close enough to send personal mails regularly, but are close enough to keep up with each other's public posts on FB. If I can ever bring myself to sever this one connection I'll take the step to delete my account. Until then I'll probably just try to delete as much non-cat-related personal information as I can.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#17

Post by subbz » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:25 PM UTC

criddell wrote: post #14

Where would Facebook users migrate to?

They're already. Especially the youngsters.

The new time waste machine is Facebook again, but with a different name: Instagram.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#18

Post by always_good » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:26 PM UTC

Was it the end of Windows just because Windows 10 had some hoopla in the press about analytics and its auto-update?

No, nobody cared. I mean, it was a meme that everyone made jokes about, even late night talk shows. But nobody cared.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#19

Post by Afforess » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:26 PM UTC

It's worth keeping in mind that most Americans are not news-addicts and do not regularly read the news. For negative press to filter to the less-engaged public, you would need continuous press for months at a time. (This is also why it's a key political strategy to identify one bad news story about a politician and beat it until it's past dead.) Until that happens, I am not convinced this is bad for facebook.

The real question should be: do I believe Facebook will decline more than I believe Facebook will sort of muddle through (like Twitter) or Facebook stages some sort of recovery and return to grace.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#20

Post by andrewl-hn » Mon, Mar 19, 2018, 3:26 PM UTC

MySpace declined because Facebook offered a viable alternative at the time. Today, out of all the alternatives the most attractive to the public is Instagram, which is owned by Facebook Inc.

Besides, just as others said the impact of bad press is not that pronounced. There's always bad press about it, and so far Facebook continues to dominate the social network market.