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'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

theguardian.com

21–30 of 88 posts

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#21
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

Correct, that piece is missing from the article. And the answer to that question is that a tax break is effectively a form of financing, so why not let Amazon (or other major corporations) be on the hook for the note? Even when that financing is paid by future tax revenues, every tax payer in the region will sign up involuntarily for a little piece of that debt. For smaller projects, this incentive mechanism makes sense. However, HQ2 will create an enormous "supply chain pull" on every aspect of government, and those costs are impossible to accurately assess. Ignore any economists projections, those are worth less than the paper they are printed on when it comes to guaranteeing billions in public debt.

Here is a fun question:, are these grass roots anti-amazon campaigns being boosted/funded by the few remaining cities in the running as a means to sabotage the other cities bids, from the inside?? The campaign leaders may not even know the real answer to that. Thats what I would do if I were Chicago!

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#22
post #17

I'm not sure that I would stick around Atlanta if Amazon puts its HQ here. The property values will skyrocket, and I haven't bought in here yet. The civic angle is interesting though, will pressure groups succeed in reining back the usual massive concessions that local governments usually grant corporate behemoths? Or will it be business as usual where the giant tosses a few shiny wampum beads to the locals while des…

Atlanta thrives on Delta, Coca Cola, UPS, Home Depot, and others. Far from "destroying livelihoods", it's in large part due to the "giants" that Atlanta is a major economic hub in the southeast.

While true, these companies are fixtures of Atlanta and all have a great track record of employing locals. Amazon's a huge tech company that employs a lot of tech people, and their effect on the property market is going to be outsized. Entire neighborhoods will gentrify overnight.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#23
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

I had the same reaction. If the HQ is going to employ thousands of workers when its built, and will require a massive construction operation to build, you're looking at a fairly large windfall for the state. Is it $5B worth? The article doesn't delve into the details.

Not to mention, the $5B tax break isn't money lost, it's merely an opportunity cost. If HQ2 wasn't moving to this city/state, they'd still be out that money.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#24
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

I had the same reaction. If the HQ is going to employ thousands of workers when its built, and will require a massive construction operation to build, you're looking at a fairly large windfall for the state. Is it $5B worth? The article doesn't delve into the details.

I would caution against broad statements that the state will receive a windfall of tax revenue. This is the same argument used to locate sports stadiums, paid for by the public, with the gains going to private owners (and local taxpayers left holding the bag).

Will tax revenues increase? Surely. Will infrastructure and housing be strained? Undoubtedly (Not everyone wants their local community turned into Seattle). Will there be a windfall? No one has proven that.

Amazon hasn't made the case its presence is a net benefit to the city it selects, and cities are arguably pragmatic for turning them away.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#25
post #13

I'm not sure that I would stick around Atlanta if Amazon puts its HQ here. The property values will skyrocket, and I haven't bought in here yet. The civic angle is interesting though, will pressure groups succeed in reining back the usual massive concessions that local governments usually grant corporate behemoths? Or will it be business as usual where the giant tosses a few shiny wampum beads to the locals while des…

"I won't be able to profit in the most obvious way possible, so I will leave." That doesn't make much sense to me.

That's not a fair summary of the problem. It's more accurately described as :

"Everyone's costs will increase, and since I don't own property, my costs will increase even higher than most others peoples costs rise"

It's totally rational to not want to take a paycut, and Amazon HQ2 will effectively be a massive pay cut to every non-Amazon person in whatever city Amazon uses for HQ2

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#26
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

The protesters point (as stated in the article) is that Amazon is going to pick the city that best meets their (physical, if you will) needs regardless of tax breaks. So for the winning city : without tax breaks you'll still win, but will also keep the extra tax revenue Amazon will generate (which you'll need because of the oversized burden they create).

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#27
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

Because it doesn't fit the narrative that amazon is evil / rich people are evil / gentrification / government kick backs.

I would seriously doubt that any city would be offering this if they didn't believe that it would be net positive for their area. Between increases in property values (thereby increased taxes), number of high-income earners, and new spending from these people, they are likely to benefit from this arrangement in the longer term.

Amazon asking for competition between the various cities isn't hunger games because pillage Atlanta to increase their odds of being picked. It isn't this zero-sum game that these people want to make it out to be.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#28
post #6

What's missing from most articles (this one included) is any kind of analysis of whether tax breaks make sense for the states in question. It bothers me how it's presented as the state giving $5B of its own cash away to Amazon, as if that money could go to the homeless instead. Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

> Presumably there are ways to estimate the economic effects of 50,000 jobs + tax breaks. Is there a reason they're not mentioned?

That assumes the promised benefits will actually materialize. I don't have any cites handy, but my understanding is that they usually don't. The company gets money from unsophisticated local leaders based on big promises, and the state or city is left holding the bag if those don't materialize.

Here's an example of another, similar deal that further along:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2017/12/26/wiscons...

> The state legislative bureau estimated it would take 25 years – until 2043 – until the Wisconsin government received enough in additional tax revenues to match the initial $3 billion investment. At $4 billion-plus, the break-even point will recede even further into the future.

> The Foxconn giveaway already adds up to a lot of money – close to $1800 per Wisconsin household, even in parts of the state that won’t benefit directly from the plant.

> How many jobs will the deal actually create? The notion of 13,000 jobs is actually a goal, not a guarantee. The legislative bureau acknowledged that some estimates place the probable payroll as low as 3,000. The agency tasked with holding Foxconn accountable has a history of failing to verify job-creation claims and rewarding companies that fall short of quotas, according to state audits. How long will the jobs actually last? Foxconn has launched an extensive commitment to automation and robotics, eliminating tens of thousands of jobs in China with the introduction of specially-designed “Foxbots” – with the stated goal of eliminating almost their entire global workforce.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#29
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had the same reaction. If the HQ is going to employ thousands of workers when its built, and will require a massive construction operation to build, you're looking at a fairly large windfall for the state. Is it $5B worth? The article doesn't delve into the details.

Not to mention, the $5B tax break isn't money lost, it's merely an opportunity cost. If HQ2 wasn't moving to this city/state, they'd still be out that money.

It isn't "merely an opportunity cost." Putting up with Amazon's HQ2 will significantly increase local infrastructural load and therefore costs. It is explicitly reducing their revenue while increasing expenses and there's no reason to assume--it's possible but the assumption is dangerous--that there will be sufficient compensatory side-effect revenues to be worth the transaction.

Re: 'Not welcome here': Amazon faces growing resistance to its second home

#30

Honestly, I think it should be illegal for a city or state to negotiate a tax break with a specific company. Sure, they can cut taxes across the board if they want, but everyone should get the same deal. I'm even for banning "backdoor" tax breaks that effectively only benefit one or two companies and were clearly targeted at them (I'm thinking of the Delta aviation fuel tax break, as an example), or sweetheart deals…

I was going to make the same comment.
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