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Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

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171–180 of 557 posts

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#171
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For all those entrepreneurs are trying to "fake it until you make it" be aware that the SEC considers your strategy both fraudulent and they feel they have the jurisdiction to prosecute you. Holmes was, in many ways, embodying that HN mentality, acting on the basis: - that an entire industry has been doing it wrong - that it can be fixed by a low-bureaucracy, Angel-funded startup - that once you have enough success…

- that an entire industry has been doing it wrong - that it can be fixed by a low-bureaucracy, Angel-funded startup - that any skill is just a matter of 10,000 hours of practice Some of these things are correct sometimes. Many industries have been doing things wrong for very long, and massively productive changes disrupted the industry. Who knew that boiling water would change the coal industry forever? Some guy came…

The problem lies in when you try to blindly apply these assumptions without anything to back it up. This is true of anything in life.

I get that we sometimes have gut feelings that we can't explain. We have to be honest with ourselves though. "Is it just that I don't want to face reality, or is there truly something that I can't put into words drawing me in this direction?"

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It helps when you’re the opposite of a black male.

My opinion: if you think this is about race and gender (as opposed to about wealth and power) you're being played.

Well the thing is, due to the redlining practices of yore, black people have a significant disadvantage when compared to even the meager wealth of poor whites. And that's not even getting into the cultural issues surrounding "ghetto" culture (which is also predominantly traceable to redlining.)

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's extremely interesting, thanks for sharing. Think about the decision that he had to make in 2016. He had to choose between admiting his mistake and doubling down. The downside of admitting his mistake is that he's guaranteed to get negative points; the upside is that it will minimise futures downsides. By dubling down, he's guaranteed to reduce his negative points in 2016 but exposes himself to magnified upside…

My understanding is that competence only matters when other people are giving you money, and doesn't matter at all when you're giving people money. I think you're really overestimating the downsides.

Reputation is everything in this business. I think you're underestimating the downsides.

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth nothing that one of Theranos's VC funders, Tim Draper, did defend Holmes despite the fraud allegations: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11973102 https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/theranos-investor-cl...

That's extremely interesting, thanks for sharing. Think about the decision that he had to make in 2016. He had to choose between admiting his mistake and doubling down. The downside of admitting his mistake is that he's guaranteed to get negative points; the upside is that it will minimise futures downsides. By dubling down, he's guaranteed to reduce his negative points in 2016 but exposes himself to magnified upside…

Those kind of decisions are made on a purely emotional, reactive basis without going through the rational game theory analysis you laid out. Most wealthy investors are no more rational than the rest of us.

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Fake it til you make it" generally refers to acting like you believe in yourself even if you're filled with self-doubt. Not actual fraud.

You can believe in yourself without faking anything, and it’s healthy to do so. Faking it implies you want to give others the impression you’re already a big shot, and it dilutes out the accomplishments of people who actually made it. The downside should be that if you’re faking it and you don’t make it, your shame should be relentless and brutal, and no one should ever take you seriously again. Also, even if you mak…

aphorisms have established common meanings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fake_it_till_you_make_it

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#176
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The key words in the article are "civil, not criminal". My keyword is why .

[disregard this, not enough caffiene today apparently] Separation of powers. The SEC is part of the executive branch. The judicial branch is responsible for bringing suit. If you want the why for that why, that's a philosophical discussion that probably won't be well served by a HN comment thread.

Huh? The judicial branch is just judges, not prosecutors.

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#177

Unfortunately pricks.com, by Blake Ross, is no longer online. However, the CDN that hosted it is still up so here is the direct link - it's a script for a comedy show based on theranos, and painfully close to reality https://web.archive.org/web/20160604083644/http://static1.sq...

Link does not work : the website expired.

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#178
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can believe in yourself without faking anything, and it’s healthy to do so. Faking it implies you want to give others the impression you’re already a big shot, and it dilutes out the accomplishments of people who actually made it. The downside should be that if you’re faking it and you don’t make it, your shame should be relentless and brutal, and no one should ever take you seriously again. Also, even if you mak…

aphorisms have established common meanings: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fake_it_till_you_make_it

meanings are not immutable

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#179
post #162
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then I'm confused: how can you a) hastily dismiss all self-doubt as Impostor Syndrome and b) believe "no one knows what they're doing either" while remaining able to accurately, honestly self-assess your skill, quality of work, and prospects for success? Edit: If you have a good answer, then I would suggest we start posting that as the advice ("here's how you know if you're good enough") rather than immediately tell…

What's the original referent of your impostor syndrome comment? As I see the term used, it generally means "I'm an impostor among this crowd of other people who do actually know what they're doing," not "I am unable to do this thing that nobody has ever done." That is, if you believe that you can't learn kernel hacking, that's (potentially) impostor syndrome. Lots of people have in fact learned kernel hacking, you ca…

>That is, if you believe that you can't learn kernel hacking, that's (potentially) impostor syndrome. Lots of people have in fact learned kernel hacking, you can learn it too.

No, the fact that others have learned it is not (strong) evidence that you can learn it too; you would need to know how similar you are to those people, and whether those dimensions are relevant.

IOW, exactly the diagnostic criteria I suggest we search for rather than immediately skip to "so what, other people thought that too".

>Your self-doubt about it is based on (falsely) thinking that you are individually incapable of doing a thing plenty of others have done.

That's generally not what is happening in practice. People don't de novo say "I can't ever do this". Rather, they attempt (or otherwise survey) it, find difficulties ("I can't consistently understand how the stack is doing that"), see others that have no similar difficulties ("what? It would have taken me a day to work through that and it comes naturally to you"), and on that basis conclude that they're unlikely to succeed as well.

"You have Impostor Syndrome" doesn't make any headway on the core problem.

Re: Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud

#180

Ok, this is the money line in that press release for me: “The charges against Theranos, Holmes, and Balwani make clear that there is no exemption from the anti-fraud provisions of the federal securities laws simply because a company is non-public, development-stage, or the subject of exuberant media attention.” For all those entrepreneurs are trying to "fake it until you make it" be aware that the SEC considers your…

"Fake it til you make it" generally refers to acting like you believe in yourself even if you're filled with self-doubt. Not actual fraud.

As with anything there is the way in which something is offered and the way in which it is consumed. I have encountered many people who have internalized "fake it" to mean "pretend that you are hitting all your milestones and you executing against your plan". These folks see this as a way to keep the questions of why they aren't actually doing all of that at bay because later when they are "making it" those questions will be irrelevant.

For example you lie about how your marketing efforts are reaching customers who are signing up in droves while you use mechanical turk and other techniques to make the observable metrics go up. At some point your visibility reaches the point where you actually are reaching your customers and so you can stop doing the shady stuff. By doing this you avoid the inefficiency of the whole "we aren't sure you can do this" discussion which helps no one.

On the outside, one clean narrative, traction and growth from day 1, now a multi-million (or billion) dollar business. Or as my Grandfather would say, all yummy sausage and no discussion at all about what not-yummy things are in there too.

Everyone should believe in themselves. That is just a given, if you don't (or can't) then you won't reach your expectation. There isn't any "faking" there as far as I can see (unless it is suppressing your own doubts about the effort).

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