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Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

toddwschneider.com

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Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#41

Post by isostatic »

ghaff wrote: post #16
godzillabrennus wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in general investors are aware that Uber will need self driving cars to stay relevant. Transportation is going to become a monthly flat rate like a cable bill for local travel via autonomous vehicles and the winners will be the companies that own the fleets and get to charge the tolls. Owning your own car will be a luxury item. Owning a gasoline powered car will be an extremely niche luxury item. Obviously th…

That would seem to be a very urbanite view of the world. A lot of people have good reasons for owning their own personalized vehicle. (Gear, kids, mobile storage locker, etc.) So long as you live somewhere with enough space that storing a vehicle isn't expensive/difficult, given that most of the costs are in mileage, it's hard to see most people giving up ownership. And, in any case, full door to door autonomy, in at…

Kids is a big thing -- needing specific car seats means taxis are out until your kids are 12.

That said the average car costs $34k in the US and lasts say 10 years, that's $3,400 a year. Maintenence, taxes, etc another $1500 at least, that's $5k/yr before you move an inch.

While automatic cars may not get rid of everything, many 2 or 3 car families, especially in the suburbs, may drop to 1.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#42

Post by ghaff »

x_throwaway80bf wrote: post #37
throwaway_80bf3 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately no one did anything about the experience I brought up in the OP until Uber. This isn't an endorsement of Uber, more of a statement of fact. That anyone can now avoid all the old PITA of moving around NYC is good. I generally don't consider the long term sustainability of the companies I purchase goods from. I do try to apply a vague and probably non-uniform ethical filter to them. That said, I'm a software…

> I generally don't consider the long term sustainability of the companies I purchase goods from. We could probably go on at length about the moral problems here, but likely not productive in a comment thread. > That said, I'm a software developer and my very generous salary I'm not sure how to read that. I am also a software engineer, and even very high salaries in wealthy urban zones are typically not 'generous' in…

Perhaps I shouldn't have been, but when Dara Khosrowshahi got put in as CEO, I was a bit surprised that part of his mandate wasn't to adjust fares to the point where is was a sustainable business and, if that turned out to be impossible, turn off the lights. I know things like self-driving get held up as some sort of magical pixie dust coming RSN, but close your eyes and hope a miracle happens doesn't seem the best approach to business strategy.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#43

Post by Spooky23 »

godzillabrennus wrote: post #3
lkrubner wrote: post #2

This is one of the more interesting things that I learned from the article: " Uber’s share of all ride-hailing trips has generally declined since 2015 as more competitors entered the NYC market, even as its total number of trips has increased dramatically. " That would have me worried, if I was an investor in Uber.

I think in general investors are aware that Uber will need self driving cars to stay relevant. Transportation is going to become a monthly flat rate like a cable bill for local travel via autonomous vehicles and the winners will be the companies that own the fleets and get to charge the tolls. Owning your own car will be a luxury item. Owning a gasoline powered car will be an extremely niche luxury item. Obviously th…

Let me guess... you live in a city and don't have kids. Come back and make this comment in 5 years.

We have monthly flat rate transportation -- it's called a car or a bus. There's no model where trips will be flat rate, because the economics don't work and the marginal value of a trip at a peak time is much higher. There are few <1,000 mile trips that are less expensive on a common carrier than a private car.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#44

Post by isostatic »

cletus wrote: post #4
lkrubner wrote: post #2

This is one of the more interesting things that I learned from the article: " Uber’s share of all ride-hailing trips has generally declined since 2015 as more competitors entered the NYC market, even as its total number of trips has increased dramatically. " That would have me worried, if I was an investor in Uber.

There are plenty of reasons to worry if you're an investor in Uber but (IMHO) this isn't one of them. NYC is big. Really big (like space). It can support a number of wannabes. But you need a certain number of drivers to be able to serve users and the value of Uber is in the areas where you can't support half a dozen wannabes. For example, I was in Australia recently and discovered that not even Lyft works there (in P…

This is a key feature of uber. I used uber in LA last year because I've used it in New York, Washington, Toronto, Singapore, Delhi, Sydney, Cairo, Brussels, Paris, Nairobi, Glasgow, London, Manchester, and many more cities.

When I arrive in town I don't research which app to download and register with to get the best solution, I use the one that is the path of least resistence, that's firstly uber, secondly a local cab that's on the street or that the hotel will call for me.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#45

Post by mancerayder »

liveoneggs wrote: post #29
throwaway_80bf3 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is so utterly false. You're essentially claiming that the value of these services is all based on the innovation of the _hailing_ functionality, but there are countless apps that recreate this functionality _exactly_ whether for 'regular' taxis or separately licensed cars. There wasn't before Uber showed up. Last time I took a Juno, the driver asked me if he could text me a promo code so I could send it to me…

> It's illegal in NYC for a yellow cab to refuse a ride request to any of the five boroughs. This is true and only a direct threat of report as they start to drive away will occasionally stop them. "I had my Off-Duty light on, I don't have to take your anywhere at 5pm" is the normal reply

The people who get punished here are the tourists and people who are new to town. If you're new and don't know the rules, or you don't speak English natively, it might be hard to argue against some yellow cabbie who suddenly shakes his head and mumbles and points out the window while you're anxiously trying to get a cab for the second or first time in your life.

Also if you report them they do have a GPS tracker that can validate their location - supposedly, or so I'm told, TLC will take that seriously and 3 dings against the driver will trigger some sort of penalty.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#46

Post by jseliger »

mancerayder wrote: post #38
throwaway_80bf3 wrote: post #7

7 years ago you'd have to jump into a yellow cab before telling the rider if you were going from Manhattan to Brooklyn or Brooklyn to Brooklyn. If you told them before you got in, they'd speed off. You used to have to walk to arterial roads in hopes of finding a yellow cab (in the outer boroughs). That is if you lived in neighborhoods that the article points out now skews towards Lyft. Well to do, post gentrification…

Fellow Brooklynite here, and I agree 100%. I can't believe the hubris of these guys, trying to get me to get out of the cab after they hear I live in Brooklyn. And BTW, I'm JUST over the bridge in Brooklyn, about 10 minutes from the E River in traffic! It's the tourists that suffer, or the newbies, who aren't as rude as us New Yorkers - they'll doubtless exit the cabbie who says, "Sorry, not going there." I don't exi…

The best part of car services may be safety. About 1 out of every 10 cab rides entailed crazy and/or dangerous driving. I don't think I've ever seen that in Uber or other car shares, because if a driver drives poorly, they'll be rated poorly. And the mutual-rating system seems to improve passenger behavior too.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#47

Post by untog »

throwaway_80bf3 wrote: post #7

7 years ago you'd have to jump into a yellow cab before telling the rider if you were going from Manhattan to Brooklyn or Brooklyn to Brooklyn. If you told them before you got in, they'd speed off. You used to have to walk to arterial roads in hopes of finding a yellow cab (in the outer boroughs). That is if you lived in neighborhoods that the article points out now skews towards Lyft. Well to do, post gentrification…

I disagree with the assessment of car services - in my experience they've always been very professional and with good quality cars. Maybe I've just gotten lucky.

The hailing situation in NYC was definitely awful. But now apps like Curb bring a yellow cab to you, and they don't have surge pricing, so at times I'll be content to get a cab instead of a Lyft/Juno, and it'll be cheaper.

The taxi lobby in NYC was terrible, and I'm very glad to see it broken. But I'm not convinced an Uber monopoly would be any better, and I'm still wary of seeing it. I don't ever use Uber simply because competition is good for me as a consumer, and I have no desire to see a company with the business practices of Uber corner the market anywhere. The service I get with Lyft and Juno is identical to that with Uber anyway.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#48

Post by wenc »

ropans808 wrote: post #22
cletus wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of reasons to worry if you're an investor in Uber but (IMHO) this isn't one of them. NYC is big. Really big (like space). It can support a number of wannabes. But you need a certain number of drivers to be able to serve users and the value of Uber is in the areas where you can't support half a dozen wannabes. For example, I was in Australia recently and discovered that not even Lyft works there (in P…

I believe Lyft only operates in the US.

Yep, though they expanded into Canada recently. (but only in the province of Ontario for now)

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#49

Post by isostatic »

ghaff wrote: post #35
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are some places where brands like Uber is extremely valuable, like Manila, where taxis are very apt to rip off free-off-the plane foreigners. Heck, most of SE Asia (there are local services also, but I’d rather not track them down before each trip).

That may be the case but my point was that hopping off-the-plane in SE Asia and grabbing a cab is not such a routine occurrence for most Westerners as to be a viable business model for VC-backed companies.

Outside of america, how many people routinely travel by taxi/rideshare/etc. In my experience, most locals take public transport. The international businessperson (on expenses) is a large market -- look at the size of the market for hotels, airlines, etc.

The one place I see taxis in use as mass transit by normal people is Singapore, where they are mostly ubiquitous (in the centre) and cheap. Even then getting a taxi if you're a couple of miles out (say in Hougang, where I spent a month) is hard work - Uber wasn't perfect but it worked well enough.

Re: Ride-hailing’s NYC dominance, and the impact of DeleteUber

#50

Post by isostatic »

viscanti wrote: post #33
fenwick67 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes god forbid you install two apps

Install N apps where N is the number of markets you eventually travel to. If you only ever travel to one other market maybe 2 is fine. If you need to download tens or hundreds of apps that might be a bit much. Not everyone will travel to that many markets, but for those who do, they might care.

1) Find out what the required app is 2) Keep them all uptodate 3) Keep your details registered with them, despite using them once every 2 years 4) Remember which app to use in which city

Uber just works. Sadly apart from where I live, which is like the 1990s in terms of taxi provision.

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