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MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

news.mit.edu

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Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#41
post #14

This is yet another area where high temperature superconductors revolutionizes its engineering. I can't wait for more insights to be made in this domain: the way superconductors behave is actually becoming clearer and clearer from one year to another. Ambient temperature superconductors are the holy grail of the field, of course, but this project shows that even ~80 K superconductors can substantially reduce the size…

I cannot help but think that ITER has been a harmful mistake. With at least 17 years to go before it is operational, it already seems obsolescent in some key technological areas, such as magnets, yet it keeps on going, sucking up funds that might be better applied elsewhere (though whether they would be is an open question.) The project reminds me of Britain's attempt to build the airliner of the future in the Bristo…

A lot of the technology used in practice is very out of date. Engineers usually call this proven and reliable.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#42
post #30
post #9

Cheap nuclear fusion energy would be a great human achievement. I do wonder about its effects on society though. Any reading containing well reasoned speculation on that? Here's what I can think of myself. * A cheaper, cleaner energy source might outcompete fossil fuel. Less air polution, yay! * Cheaper energy would significantly increase energy consumption. Think Jevons paradox[0]. The effect of that increased heat…

Global warming will be solved, when we have a source of cheap electricity, it will be possible to just pull CO2 from the air.

I truly hope this is true, but when I think about the creation of some technology that lets us do this, I'm left with a roadblock I can't get around: Who is going to pay for this, when we can't even get the US to agree to cost-saving commitments to reduce CO2 output?

If we get to a grid that's ~100% renewable, we'll likely have oversized it a massive amount, like 50%-200% more energy could be produced than is needed at the time of productions, to deal with seasonal and weather variability. Let's call all that energy free, because it has zero marginal cost and would be curtailed otherwise. Who pays for the capital on the equipment to pull out CO2 from the atmosphere, and the disposal of the resulting tons of carbon?

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#43
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot help but think that ITER has been a harmful mistake. With at least 17 years to go before it is operational, it already seems obsolescent in some key technological areas, such as magnets, yet it keeps on going, sucking up funds that might be better applied elsewhere (though whether they would be is an open question.) The project reminds me of Britain's attempt to build the airliner of the future in the Bristo…

A lot of the technology used in practice is very out of date. Engineers usually call this proven and reliable.

Today's proven and reliable technology can't do fusion yet - that's the whole point of these projects.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#44
post #30
post #9

Cheap nuclear fusion energy would be a great human achievement. I do wonder about its effects on society though. Any reading containing well reasoned speculation on that? Here's what I can think of myself. * A cheaper, cleaner energy source might outcompete fossil fuel. Less air polution, yay! * Cheaper energy would significantly increase energy consumption. Think Jevons paradox[0]. The effect of that increased heat…

Global warming will be solved, when we have a source of cheap electricity, it will be possible to just pull CO2 from the air.

You can pull CO2 out of the air with a hay field. That's not the problem.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#45
post #5
post #4

Fusion is still exciting, but with normal renewable (solar, wind) costs plummeting the way they are is there still such a compelling case for pouring money into fusion? This one aims to produce a working plant within 15 years. I'm not sure that any of the other efforts are closer to being viable (if they work at all). That's the kind of time frame in which we may master offshore wind and grid-attached storage like th…

Solar and wind will never be enough to cover all energy demand. It is a common misconception, it is not even possible to reduce energy consumption to low enough that solar and wind would be sufficient. If we want to stop burning fuel, we must research nuclear. Of course it is unlikely that we would stop burning fuel any time soon, and that's why 15 years is unfortunately not an inconvenient timeline. If you're intere…

>If you're interested in the numbers behind this argument I highly recommend the book "Sustainable energy without the hot air".

The numbers in that book do not support your case. And that's for a small island nation without many renewable resources, trying to be energy independent, written at a time when renewable cost many multiples of what they cost now.

Wind and solar can easily provide many multiples of our total energy demand, even after the entire world is brought up to a European standard of energy consumption.

Nuclear may have an impact, but it's going to be 20+ years before it can. Every attempt to build is met with massive delays and almost criminal incompetence. We can't build nuclear right now. Maybe SMRs will be different, if they will never be as cheap as renewables. SMR might be the expensive thing that gets us from 80% to 100% renewables, or it may be some other technology for seasonal energy storage.

The nuclear industry has let the world down when nuclear was needed most. The so called nuclear renaissance that should have started in 2008 in the US and the UK has fizzled due to construction mismanagement. We needed those reactors to be built quickly, and cheaply, and then to replicate that success again and again, but due to the failure we must invest heavily in wins solar and storage until a new generation of more competent nuclear construction is possible.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#46
post #17
post #9

Cheap nuclear fusion energy would be a great human achievement. I do wonder about its effects on society though. Any reading containing well reasoned speculation on that? Here's what I can think of myself. * A cheaper, cleaner energy source might outcompete fossil fuel. Less air polution, yay! * Cheaper energy would significantly increase energy consumption. Think Jevons paradox[0]. The effect of that increased heat…

I'm dreaming here, but could we with "unlimited" power radiate this power into space ? I'm thinking about a heat pump which would make the Earth colder, and radiate the heat to space, effectively cooling Earth (that's how indians made ice in the past) ?

In theory that should be possible. But it seems much simpler to remove some greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, or to deploy ultrathin sunshades into orbit to decrease the brightness of the sun for part of the day.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot help but think that ITER has been a harmful mistake. With at least 17 years to go before it is operational, it already seems obsolescent in some key technological areas, such as magnets, yet it keeps on going, sucking up funds that might be better applied elsewhere (though whether they would be is an open question.) The project reminds me of Britain's attempt to build the airliner of the future in the Bristo…

Your 17 years are off, experiment begin is in 2027: https://www.iter.org/construction/timeline And even then, the time until “operational” is not spent idling, the project has sparked and funded lots of research in various domains. It’s like the space race, at some point you just have to start building something for there to be any actual progress.

Indeed, but I wonder if ITER has had a chilling effect on other such projects that could take advantage of newer technology to leapfrog it. In fact, some of the recent projects are looking more like the space race, which is an encouraging sign, and perhaps especially if it lights a fire under ITER - let's have a fusion race!

The article cited 2035 as the date when ITER is expected to begin producing fusion energy. While preliminary R&D is necessary, it is all for (nearly) nothing unless and until it results in fusion at a scale that advances the state of the art.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#48

It's hard to fully comprehend the impact of new energy sources on civilization. So much of what we do is only possible because we have the necessary energy at our disposal. When civilization finds new energy sources, most other technologies level up as well. Consider one of the biggest problems with desalinization systems: pumping water inland. The actual separation of salt from seawater isn't the most energy intensi…

Maybe we can reforest the Sahara which cheap transportation of water powered by fusion. Better climate control will also be probably possible

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#49
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is one effect you're missing, the part where those countries which were dependent on income from fossil fuels won't just quietly subside back into their previous state of being. While Venezuela has already dealt with the problem by self-immolation the same can not be said about two other big oil and gas exporters: the middle eastern countries and Russia. To start with the latter, Russia stands to lose not only…

The demand for Russian natural gas will only plummet if there's a huge shift from natgas heating to electric heat, and that would take hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of Euros to accomplish.

If electricity would be free, I would convert to electric heating in a heartbeat. Replacing a gas burner with an electric coil should be pretty cheap compared to the yearly costs of heating.

The problem with that is that electricity isn't free. Even if energy production suddenly became basically free and we removed taxes and renewable energy charges, I would still pay €0.07/kWh just for using the power grid. And that's unlikely to go down since the grid would need massive upgrades to handle large but cheap fusion plants.

Re: MIT and newly formed company launch effort to build compact tokamak pilot plant

#50

It's hard to fully comprehend the impact of new energy sources on civilization. So much of what we do is only possible because we have the necessary energy at our disposal. When civilization finds new energy sources, most other technologies level up as well. Consider one of the biggest problems with desalinization systems: pumping water inland. The actual separation of salt from seawater isn't the most energy intensi…

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