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Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

investmentcalculator.io

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Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#181
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but usually receive a discount for being seniors. That’s why I said low cost of living. Tennessee is nice.

And a lot of places freeze your property tax at 65, so you never have to pay more.

A lot as in only 6 of the 50 states?

*http://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/state-property-ta...

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#183
post #162

"In order to get a good understanding of the purchasing power of your future retirement savings for today, you can do a “simple” calculation: Take your total retirement savings and multiply it by 3%. For example, if you have $1.25m (retirement savings), multiplied by 0.03% (inflation), you get $45,000 in inflation. Then you subtract that number from your total savings: $1.25m - $45k = $880k. This will give you a base…

> Then you subtract that number from your total savings:

You subtract your annual spending (3%) from your total invested? Why would you do that? To arrive at the total amount you'd have invested after you spend for a year?

This paragraph reads like a markov chain generator.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#184
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a lot of places freeze your property tax at 65, so you never have to pay more.

A lot as in only 6 of the 50 states? * http://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/state-property-ta...

Most property tax is local not state. I don't have the percentage breakdown, but I have encountered this multiple times within my family (anecdotal I know). It's quite possible that this percent is not a majority.

Plus, your link is more like ~14/50 states if you're only considering lower income folks.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#185
Pretty cool! I use the "Retirement Planner" from Personal Capital (like Mint but for investments)

Some of the notable features are:

- Adding future income events (social security, pension, etc)

- Inflation adjusted.

- Set future spending goals (buying a house, wedding, health care)

- You can also save different simulations and get a percentage chance of hitting that goal. I have one for if Social Security doesn't exist when I retire, another one for early retirement, etc.

It's free to sign up. https://personalcapital.com/

They have a referral promotion going on right now. You get a $20 Amazon gift card and I receive a $20 Amazon for each referral. I couldn't find the HN rules about referrals so if it's in violation, I'll remove it. https://www.talkable.com/x/v3V09g

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yowzers! Please tell me what this magical investment is where I can expect an average rate of return of 9% (let alone 12%). That is off the charts optimistic.

You can get guaranteed 11% returns at https://www.twino.eu/ I used it for a while; it did work and their published financials are solid, but being happy with some risk I decided stocks where a better play. Still, it's a useful baseline.

That's not what "guaranteed" means.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#187
post #3

Nice! I have used http://calculator.moneyforsomething.com for years, I may have to try yours out the next few "spreadsheet days" I have at home. :)

I like how this calculator includes fees. Fees are so often overlooked when calculating retirement.

"Lots of people are unknowingly paying 2%, and more, in annual fees. At a low-cost brokerage you can get away with 0.5%. See what a difference that does to your final balance."

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#188
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario and 12% for aggressive. Due to the exponential nature of compound interest, just a single point of overoptimism in your real growth number leads to a massive overestimation of your results. 1.07 ^ 30 = 7.6, 1.09 ^ 30 = 13.3, and 1.12 ^ 30 = 30.0 It's baseline assumptions are way off.

There's also issues with the suggestions. It suggests driving for Lyft or Uber for a cool $28k more a year, but the article linked doesn't seem to account for costs of that work, just revenue.

Turns out after accounting for costs Uber drivers MIGHT even make less than minimum wage https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/02/590168381...

And why "Uber?" Cuz it's cool? Why not "Starbucks barista" or "shelf stocker?" Because what we're really talking about is "work more" I guess "part time job" doesn't sound as hip as it used to...

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#189
post #54

Be careful with this: The projections are gross (ie not inflation-adjusted) and the advice buried in the explanatory text below does not sufficiently discuss this issue. It says you can do a "simple" calculation by applying one year's worth of inflation versus a compounded rate of return. Assuming historical inflation rates, the value of the savings it projects will be significantly eroded compared to what it shows.…

Yeah, it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario and 12% for aggressive. Due to the exponential nature of compound interest, just a single point of overoptimism in your real growth number leads to a massive overestimation of your results. 1.07 ^ 30 = 7.6, 1.09 ^ 30 = 13.3, and 1.12 ^ 30 = 30.0 It's baseline assumptions are way off.

Not only that but people change risk throughout their lifetimes with their age and life situation. You're probably going to start out very aggressive in your 20s and end up a bit more conservative by your 50s. Usually.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#190
For comparison, this is a calculator that was built by actuaries[1] for the Australian market:

https://supercalcs.com.au/ris9/mst

Some really important things that are built into it are:

- Everything is given in "today's dollars" and that's done by reference to a salary index, NOT a price index, to reflect increases in community living standards.

- It shows some indication of the income level you can expect during retirement given your lump-sum retirement benefit.

[1] I was one of the actuarial staff that contributed to it

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