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Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

investmentcalculator.io

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Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#151

Post by cryoshon »

Veelox wrote: post #145
cryoshon wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>saving 10% of your salary impossible for most people >spend impossible for many (most?) places with jobs >don't borrow to spend more than you make 90% of the time this factor is indeed entirely up to individuals and a perpetual point of failure... but refusing to borrow and cutting minor expenses is not a road to any kind of wealth for most people. it's a road to retiring poor. most people are on that road.

> >saving 10% of your salary >impossible for most people Part of me is tempted to look up statistics to make the point but if you are making more than 150% of the poverty line in the US, you can save 10% of your income, it is a choice not to. > >spend >impossible for many (most?) places with jobs It all depends on where you are willing to live. Also, if you move to somewhere to get a job, before you accept the offer…

>if you move to somewhere to get a job

you're out of touch. this is not even the same type of job that the majority of people have access to. people's standard of living is far beneath what you suspect.

>If you are making $50k, it is a matter of choice.

try having a mortgage or high rent, a medical problem, kids, parents who need care, a car, student loans, clothing that aren't tatters, an emergency fund.... and all that comes before even baseline (necessary) entertainment / low-luxuries like internet access and padded chairs.

it isn't a matter of choice for most people. nevermind that 412k isn't enough to retire on if you have any of those burdens above. sure, they could spend $20 a week less on beer. but why would they?

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#152

Post by stochastastic »

jonknee wrote: post #140
teej wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you forgot to click the “inflation adjusted” checkbox. The real rate of return is closer to ~7%. Also caveat emptor - past performance is no guarantee of future results.

But the calculator you're criticizing does not adjust for inflation...

I think that’s the point. A projected savings balance is misleading without considering inflation, so if the calculator doesn’t make an explicit adjustment for it then there ought to be an implicit adjustment in the rate of return assumption.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#153

Post by shoo »

cecilpl2 wrote: post #117
ryandrake wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yowzers! Please tell me what this magical investment is where I can expect an average rate of return of 9% (let alone 12%). That is off the charts optimistic.

Assuming dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 has returned an annual average of 10% nominally (7% real), over the last 100 years or so.

Forecasting 7% long-term real returns from the current state of the S&P 500 ignores the current environment - the S&P 500 is currently priced very highly relative to historical prices.

There's an interesting bit of analysis that estimates an upper bound of 3.8% -- 3.95% real returns from US Equities. Worth a read.

> Valuations today are in the 97th percentile of all valuations in history and the 83rd percentile of valuations over the last twenty years (itself a period of very high valuations). Rather than assume that they will revert back to some past average, let’s start by granting the very bullish assumption that they will remain exactly where they are today forever.

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2018/01/future-u-s-equ...

Edit: the same blog that has a great post "The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns" which goes beyond "mean reversion" of equity valuations, to show how you can make a better explanation (and better long term forecasts) by considering supply and demand dynamics as investors, on average, shift their allocations of investments between equities, bonds and cash.

As previously discussed on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948078

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#154

Post by pascalxus »

thetwentyone wrote: post #39

Be careful with this: The projections are gross (ie not inflation-adjusted) and the advice buried in the explanatory text below does not sufficiently discuss this issue. It says you can do a "simple" calculation by applying one year's worth of inflation versus a compounded rate of return. Assuming historical inflation rates, the value of the savings it projects will be significantly eroded compared to what it shows.…

yeah, 9% and 12% do seem a bit high.

but, other than that, it's a good calculator and I like the idea and the interface is nice too.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#157

Post by SubiculumCode »

compiler-guy wrote: post #13

Those seeking a much more sophisticated retirement calculator, where you can set nearly every parameter, such as rate of return, amount saved, and nearly everything else, should checkout firecalc. You can select different withdrawl rate strategies, different investment strategies, deferred compensation strategies, different investment mixes, and many, many other things. The interface isn't as pretty, but it is unbeli…

was just going to suggest this. I learned a lot using firecalc.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#159

Post by BeetleB »

ryandrake wrote: post #96
Veelox wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's no way I'm going to have saved enough money to live off of It is possible. It will take work and change on your part. The first step is to track your spending. The easiest way to do this is get an account with mint, ynab (you need a budget), or personal capital. You can link all of your accounts with the site and app. You can then categorized your spending. After you do this you can start seeing where you c…

There is no straightforward risk-less formula, unfortunately. You can follow all the textbook advice, have a budget, max your 401k, pay down your debt, buy a house, blah blah blah, and after 20 years still only have 1x or 1.5x your salary in total savings [ask me how I know] due to bad luck, unfortunate market timing, lack of skill in investing, emergencies, etc. I hate all this simplified, incomplete advice. If succ…

>You can follow all the textbook advice, have a budget, max your 401k, pay down your debt, buy a house, blah blah blah, and after 20 years still only have 1x or 1.5x your salary in total savings [ask me how I know] due to bad luck, unfortunate market timing, lack of skill in investing, emergencies, etc. I hate all this simplified, incomplete advice. If successfully saving for retirement was so straightforward and deterministic, there wouldn’t be an entire industry, with consultants and books, built up around trying to help people hopelessly navigate it.

You can follow all the textbook advice, study hard, fill in your applications on time, get good grades in college, and once you graduate you could still not have a job for years due to bad luck, unfortunate economic conditions, lack of skill in picking your major, emergencies, etc.

What should I conclude about all the advice on studying?

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