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Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

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Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#151

Post by masklinn »

golemiprague wrote: post #134
masklinn wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The data mostly looks like population data then The US has a smaller population than the EU (~300m to ~500m). So does Russia (150m). Australia has a significantly smaller population than the EU (15^H^H25m as golemiprague noted). It's not population data it's mineral commodities. > What would it look like for ton-mile per capita (if that's actually a statistic)? The US would climb to ~15x the tonnes-kilometers per c…

Australia has close to 25m

Indeed typo'd in the first paragraph. Fixed. Note the ratio is correct in the second one.

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#152

Post by masklinn »

jonknee wrote: post #136
masklinn wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One can easily foresee a future where a self-driving truck has a driver in it who is only driving 'regulated' hours for a small portion of a trip (say during high traffic, highway entry/exit, etc). The driver could spend the rest of his time sleeping, reading, or coding - he'd basically be a passenger. That kinda already exists though, with team driving. Two pilots relaying gives ~22h of driving per 24h plus 2x30mn…

> That kinda already exists though, with team driving. Two pilots relaying gives ~22h of driving per 24h plus 2x30mn slack (under US regs, though there's still a limit of 70h/8 days followed by 34h rest per driver). So at minimum labor costs could halve... Sounds like a huge productivity boost.

> So at minimum labor costs could halve... Sounds like a huge productivity boost.

It's not a change in productivity at all.

Also

> Truckers generally get paid per mile, not per hour.

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#153

Post by jonknee »

masklinn wrote: post #152
jonknee wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That kinda already exists though, with team driving. Two pilots relaying gives ~22h of driving per 24h plus 2x30mn slack (under US regs, though there's still a limit of 70h/8 days followed by 34h rest per driver). So at minimum labor costs could halve... Sounds like a huge productivity boost.

> So at minimum labor costs could halve... Sounds like a huge productivity boost. It's not a change in productivity at all. Also > Truckers generally get paid per mile, not per hour.

One person getting the job of two people done is indeed a [giant] productivity boost. Compensation will surely change along with the industry, but there's not a reason to suspect drivers will be the winners in this.

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#154

Post by masklinn »

booleandilemma wrote: post #96
superfrank wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if (and that's a very big if) we get to a point where we decide we need someone behind the wheel of these truck, but it's okay for them to be staring at a laptop the entire time, I can't see a whole lot of quality code coming from someone who is sitting in the cabin of a truck with one eye constantly on the road.

Just when I thought there wasn’t anything worse than the open office plan. It brings a whole new meaning to the word “shipping”.

> Just when I thought there wasn’t anything worse than the open office plan.

Eh. A truck cabin sounds better. You can have music without needing to wear cans, you don't hear jim's mastication or janice's burping you don't get assaulted by emily's lack of hygiene or randy's mix of aggressive cologne and smelly feet, you decide what temperature you're most comfortable at, you can work without pants, …

The main issue would be 'net connectivity.

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#155

Post by wongarsu »

nopinsight wrote: post #8

For those concerned with jobs to be eliminated, it might not be as big a problem as we think for the trucking industry. "Over the next 10 years, he said, we need to attract almost 900,000 new people to the industry. Demographics is a big part of the problem. ATA’s research arm, the American Transportation Research Institute, recently updated its demographic data on drivers and found some 57% of drivers are 45 or olde…

>some 57% of drivers are 45 or older. Only 4.4% are 20-24 years old

For reference:

Assuming a driver starts working at age 18 and retires at age 65, and given equal distribution of workers over all ages, you would expect 42% of workers to be 45 or older, and 10% of workers to be 20-24 years old (if you assume 21-70, then 51% should be 45 or older).

Just in case anybody else was wondering what those numbers mean. As an aside, this projection from the same presenation looks slightly suspicious: http://www.truckinginfo.com/fc_images/news/l-driverturnover-...

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#156

Post by RoyTyrell »

fareesh wrote: post #95

Does the self driving truck have any kind of security? Given that there is a "do no harm" program embedded into the driving "subroutines", is there anything that prevents thieves from essentially surrounding the truck and robbing it in the middle of nowhere? Edit: To clarify I mean - in a hypothetical situation where it is ever driverless, couldnt 10 of us surround it, while I walk in and commandeer it, disable GPS a…

The movie Solar Crisis already covered this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i729rZWTmDo#t=30m22s

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#157

Post by txsh »

masklinn wrote: post #122
kingbirdy wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data mostly looks like population data then, if US, India, and China are the leaders. What would it look like for ton-mile per capita (if that's actually a statistic)?

> The data mostly looks like population data then The US has a smaller population than the EU (~300m to ~500m). So does Russia (150m). Australia has a significantly smaller population than the EU (15^H^H25m as golemiprague noted). It's not population data it's mineral commodities. > What would it look like for ton-mile per capita (if that's actually a statistic)? The US would climb to ~15x the tonnes-kilometers per c…

Europe’s population is ~750m.

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#158

Post by dahart »

lawguy wrote: post #138
masklinn wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's misplaced, freight is the one area where NA in general and US in particular absolutely blows every other region out the water. Circa 2010 Rail was ~40% of US freight by ton-mile, whereas for the EU it was ~17%, and the US had 10x more tonne-kilometer freight rail than the EU (beyond China and Russia, with India a very distant third) (nb: China carried more tonnes total but shorter distances) Of course…

> Hell one of the reasons passenger trains is shit in the US is that passenger rail does not get priority over freight They do have priority: > (c) Preference over freight transportation. -- Except in an emergency, intercity and commuter rail passenger transportation provided by or for Amtrak has preference over freight transportation in using a rail line, junction, or crossing... http://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-49…

Passenger rail is supposed to have priority by law, but in practice they don't always get it. Freight carriers don't always yield, enough so that there are ongoing legal battles. You can check Amtrak's historical On-Time Performance and causes of delay here: https://www.amtrak.com/about-amtrak/on-time-performance/

My quick sampling of ~10 trains came up with an average around 65% on-time during the last year. The only one I've ridden, the California Zephyr, is less than 50%.

http://blog.amtrak.com/2015/02/message-amtrak-regarding-time...

http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2017/03/24-judge-sides-...

http://www.jconline.com/story/money/2017/08/24/csx-digs-its-...

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#159

Post by noobermin »

EggsOnToast wrote: post #142
knz wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the issue a lack of jobs or a lack of jobs that pay enough to prosper in our society? BLS has the mean annual income for a truck driver at $43,000 ( https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm ) versus ~ $22,000 for a personal care assistant ( https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-per... ). That's a huge difference, especially in a country with the health care system we have.

Those numbers make sense at a glance. A truck driver, despite the popular image, more closely resembles specialized work than un-specialized. There are specific skill and documentation requirements to become a Truck driver. The healthcare work you linked to just requires a high-school diploma and no certs, if it's a job like caring for the elderly then the main factor driving up the wage is a shortage of people willi…

You start by saying how a personal care assistant is rather unspecialized work and then go on to ruminate on the peculiarities of the job that most people wouldn't want to deal with.

Why isn't trucking an unskilled job just with negative features (long hours alone, danger to health given the erratic hours) too?

Re: Uber self-driving trucks are now moving cargo for Uber Freight customers

#160

Post by PantaloonFlames »

gthtjtkt wrote: post #35
nopinsight wrote: post #8

For those concerned with jobs to be eliminated, it might not be as big a problem as we think for the trucking industry. "Over the next 10 years, he said, we need to attract almost 900,000 new people to the industry. Demographics is a big part of the problem. ATA’s research arm, the American Transportation Research Institute, recently updated its demographic data on drivers and found some 57% of drivers are 45 or olde…

> However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics. If recent history is any indication of how this will turn out, it's not going to be pretty. The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed.

> The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed.

Not actually true. a more accurate telling is: the rich get richer and the poor get richer too. You may commenting on the fact that the rich are getting richer FASTER than the poor are getting richer, and that's an interesting phenomenon to comment on, but it is undeniable that everyone is getting richer, almost regardless how you slice the data.

Worldwide, extreme poverty is on an accelerating decrease, and is set to be completely eradicated by 2030. In the US and in Western economies, poverty, which used to be common only 80 years ago, is almost completely erased. Meanwhile those who have low income, but are above "the poverty line", continue to see growth in wages, in standard of living, and in lifespan and in quality of life. Objectively.

Why are we are inundated with the false idea that "things are so bad" by mainstream media? That narrative sells papers and clicks. But it's not supported by the data.

Whether we all would benefit from rebalancing the wealth distribution is a different question.

reference: Humanprogress.org, and Steven Pinker's new book, "Enlightenment Now" (highly recommended)

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