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Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

economist.com

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Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#71

Post by pas »

gdubs wrote: post #46
adventured wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does that have to do with global nuclear war?

It has to do with global nuclear war because saying that one will not break out over 'x' ignores the fact that there's historical evidence for unimaginable carnage being triggered from seemingly minor events. Many scenarios put forward by military thinkers on what might trigger a nuclear war involve escalation – it's not limited to a country deciding to just fire off some rockets.

Isn't the sentiment over WWI that it was only a matter of time and casus belli? If not an assassination then a border skirmish or something else.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#72

Post by mistermann »

adventured wrote: post #66
simonh wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it comes to trade what matters is whether or not you meet your treaty obligations. It's a rules based process, where you agree the rules and have some arbitration process, e.g. through the WTO. On that basis, what matters is whether China is following the rules it, and everyone else, agreed to. If you think some one is cheating you arbitrate. We made a deal. Trump is intent on blatantly breaking the rules the US…

> what matters is whether China is following the rules it, and everyone else, agreed to That's incorrect. China is failing, to an extraordinary degree, to comply with what it said that it would do in being allowed into the WTO. Namely, opening up their economy in terms of full and equal foreign access. At every step, they've refused to go forward with that. As it turns out, most likely, they were lying and buying tim…

It's amazing how clear this is, yet so few people can see it, it makes me wonder if there would be less confusion if we didn't have two different cultures involved.

Of course, Western corporations and their executives who are profiting handsomely from it have good reason to "not notice" what's happening and continue to talk their book, but the wilful ignorance of genuinely well-meaning liberals is more complex.

I always wonder if Chinese leadership sometimes leans back and marvels at how easy it is to win when the uninformed citizens of your adversaries are in an ideological war with each other.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#73

Post by jimbokun »

arialeks wrote: post #25
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

"Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future."

US military expenditures are also very disturbing.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#74

Post by Apocryphon »

drharby wrote: post #10
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

If china invades taiwan in will be a sign that China believes US leadership to be weak, and the world would follow that lead depending on the us response. If they successfully coax a response, we hurt our economic ties, if they dont, they get facevalue gains and reduce us foreign credibility. Now that i think about it...im scared for taiwan

Taiwan is a first world democracy that has at least existed with its own distinct government for seventy years. A Chinese military invasion would be unprecedented in the history of the world since WWII. I wonder what such a war would signify for the postwar order.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#75

Post by kolbe »

debt wrote: post #56
bgee wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate more on why China's increasing military budget is a disturbing sign to you? China spends a mere 1.9% of its GDP in 2016 and that number is smaller than from Vietnam, Korea, India even Singapore [0]. To me China is only trying catching up its neighbors. BTW Japan's PM has just submitted his 2018 Military Budget and if approved would be the 6th "straight annual increase" [1]. [0]: https://data.worldba…

It's usually not except within in the context of Xi Xinping appointing himself ruler for life. The combination is cause for concern.

Is there something in particular about him that you find scary? I'm not sure why length of rule should play such a large part in this calculus.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#76

Post by pavlov »

jerf wrote: post #22
drharby wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If china invades taiwan in will be a sign that China believes US leadership to be weak, and the world would follow that lead depending on the us response. If they successfully coax a response, we hurt our economic ties, if they dont, they get facevalue gains and reduce us foreign credibility. Now that i think about it...im scared for taiwan

One of the strategies is to keep Taiwan itself armed. Civilians like us can't know this, but it has been hypothesized that one of the levers being used on China with regard to North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is explaining to them that if North Korea goes nuclear, they can expect Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and who knows who else to go nuclear, either via local development of the weaponry or via assisted…

USA turning over nuclear weapons to Taiwan sounds like a recap of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Unfortunately Trump is no Khrushchev, and Xi is no JFK either. A terrifying scenario.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#77

Post by adventured »

bllguo wrote: post #43
adventured wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam just had to expend a large amount of effort to placate and reassure China, so the US could dock an aircraft carrier in Danang. For a country as powerful and on the rise as China is, it's remarkable how insecure the CPC are about every little thing. It's an overwhelming indication of the fragility of their power and their own sense of security about their control.

this sounds like you're projecting something, honestly. I'd stray on the side of being wary of China, not dismissing them as "insecure" and "fragile." Just a dangerous mindset imo.

I don't think so. Trump for an example is very easy to see through in terms of his insecurity. People that behave a certain way while they're in extraordinary positions of power, reveal that fragility / insecurity.

China's behavior reeks of insecurity. Here they are, this massive, extremely powerful, rapidly growing economic juggernaut, and they behave like a scared mouse about the South China Sea (as though they really needed to steal that territory from their neighbors), about Vietnam & the US (as though Vietnam could ever threaten them), about the smallest slight from Japan or South Korea (who cares). It's incredibly revealing.

Besides the obviousness of China's reactions and behavior and what it reveals, authoritarian regimes are universally wildly insecure. The people that seek authoritarian positions of power are similarly universally insecure. Take Stalin, he was like a man-child in terms of insecurity, and most dictators you can name from the last century were likewise, that includes everyone from Saddam to Putin (look at his recent tantrum performance, putting on a visual display of Russia nuking the US at his state of the nation speech, trying his best to hide vast insecurity).

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#78

Post by jyrkesh »

natecavanaugh wrote: post #45
ahtu123 wrote: post #11

I have a feeling 10 years from now Trump will be funny blip on the radar of how crazy the '10s were while Asia will be quite meaningfully transformed. I wish this was getting as much attention as BREAKING NEWS: Trump/staffer did something dumb. The (soon plausibly) richest and most populous country in the world will soon have a dictator. That's a bit scary.

Two things give me some hope. 1. I don't think totalitarianism lends itself to economic prosperity, long term. Sure, the right authoritarian can move much faster and implement beneficial changes much more quickly than a democratic government can. But that knife cuts both ways. 2. The entire government system in China, and it's culture, heavily values stability and collective unity (hence it's desire to squash and eli…

Naively, and based on historical data, I agree with point #1. What worries me about China is that they've had no problem--politically or technologically--collecting massive data sets on their citizenry via a level of mass surveillance that's never been reached AFAICT. On top of that, they're investing hard in artificial intelligence, and the benefits will ultimately be reaped by whoever's in charge of the datasets (in this case, the government). All of that gives them a lot of levers to control and manipulate their citizenry that has not been available to authoritarian governments yet.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#79

Post by pishpash »

arialeks wrote: post #25
anthonyleecook wrote: post #4

Some other disturbing signs from China: increasing military budget https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/03/06/china-splash-us175-bil... , kidnapping relatives of the reporters in other countries that exposed the uigher concentration camps http://m.dw.com/en/chinese-authorities-detain-relatives-of-r... , China literally banned words and letter n in social media https://mashable.com/2018/02/28/china-bans-n-xi-jinping-term..…

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

It's a concern because anything that challenges absolute dominance of the US-led order is considered destabilizing and threatening, but there is an asterisk, as in, "by whom"?

If you happen to benefit or be happy with the US-led order, say an ally or vassal (military, economic, or just ideological), then you will feel the same way, naturally. If you are not, you are not so concerned.

Re: Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits

#80

Post by pishpash »

olympus wrote: post #63
arialeks wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it disturbing from a US POV, or generally speaking? Because if I recall correctly, the US military spending has gone up significantly as well, also it's projected to rise even further in the future. On a related note, could someone explain to me how Russia manages to stay a threat with a military budget that's about 6% of the US budget? Or does it only seem to be that smaller because their soldiers are payed less?

It doesn't just disturb the US, but every country surrounding China that is dominated by the strongest power in the region. The weaker countries have no choice but to accept unfavorable trade deals, give up ocean territory away from what is the accepted as international convention, etc. China is big. China being ran by a dictator becomes a big bully.

US is a big bully with its Monroe Doctrine, dictator or not. This is China's version.
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