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Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

investmentcalculator.io

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Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#71

Post by function_seven »

metalliqaz wrote: post #57
snowwrestler wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it is fashionable to doubt that Social Security will be around for the Gen X or Millenial retirements, the reality is that it's simply a matter of political will. If people like Social Security (and they generally do), then all they have to do is vote for politicians who will protect it, and harass politicians when it looks like they won't. Of course it's fine to plan for a retirement without Social Security...…

Politicians don't listen to you or me. They listen to Moneybags McGee and his PAC. The vision of democracy that you described in that comment doesn't exist in the United States.

The fact that Social Security has survived for several decades is evidence otherwise. Even Moneybags McGee knows better than to poke at AARP and the most reliable voting demographic in the world.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#72

Post by dclowd9901 »

teej wrote: post #54
thetwentyone wrote: post #39

Be careful with this: The projections are gross (ie not inflation-adjusted) and the advice buried in the explanatory text below does not sufficiently discuss this issue. It says you can do a "simple" calculation by applying one year's worth of inflation versus a compounded rate of return. Assuming historical inflation rates, the value of the savings it projects will be significantly eroded compared to what it shows.…

Yeah, it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario and 12% for aggressive. Due to the exponential nature of compound interest, just a single point of overoptimism in your real growth number leads to a massive overestimation of your results. 1.07 ^ 30 = 7.6, 1.09 ^ 30 = 13.3, and 1.12 ^ 30 = 30.0 It's baseline assumptions are way off.

There's also issues with the suggestions. It suggests driving for Lyft or Uber for a cool $28k more a year, but the article linked doesn't seem to account for costs of that work, just revenue.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#73

Post by ryandrake »

teej wrote: post #54
thetwentyone wrote: post #39

Be careful with this: The projections are gross (ie not inflation-adjusted) and the advice buried in the explanatory text below does not sufficiently discuss this issue. It says you can do a "simple" calculation by applying one year's worth of inflation versus a compounded rate of return. Assuming historical inflation rates, the value of the savings it projects will be significantly eroded compared to what it shows.…

Yeah, it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario and 12% for aggressive. Due to the exponential nature of compound interest, just a single point of overoptimism in your real growth number leads to a massive overestimation of your results. 1.07 ^ 30 = 7.6, 1.09 ^ 30 = 13.3, and 1.12 ^ 30 = 30.0 It's baseline assumptions are way off.

Yowzers! Please tell me what this magical investment is where I can expect an average rate of return of 9% (let alone 12%). That is off the charts optimistic.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#74

Post by asaph »

Related: Here was a weekend project I did about a year ago:

http://retirement-calculator.net/

I use it for my own financial projections. I wanted something simple that didn't base post-retirement income on a percentage of pre-retirement income. I just wanted to input a dollar amount for post-retiremt income and have that adjusted for inflation.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#75

Post by bduerst »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #24
mcovey wrote: post #16

All this does is scare me. I honestly hope I die before I have to retire, because there's no way I'm going to have saved enough money to live off of, even modestly, and no way I'm going to remain sharp enough to continue earning through and beyond my 60s.

Pay off a modest $100k house in a low cost of living area and you should be able to survive on Social Security alone. Save more if you can though.

Do retirees have to pay property taxes?

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#76

Post by newscracker »

> The average tax refund in the US is $3,050 per year.

> Avoid spending tax refunds to get to your retirement faster.

The advice should instead tell the user to plan the tax payments to avoid giving the government an interest free loan by overpaying taxes and getting it back as a refund much later. Of course, a particular sum should be invested regularly.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#77

Post by toomuchtodo »

bduerst wrote: post #75
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pay off a modest $100k house in a low cost of living area and you should be able to survive on Social Security alone. Save more if you can though.

Do retirees have to pay property taxes?

Yes, but usually receive a discount for being seniors. That’s why I said low cost of living. Tennessee is nice.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#78

Post by ataturk »

miguelrochefort wrote: post #56

x: How much do you need to live for a year? y: How much do you need to retire forever? y = 25x

The problem is that x is not a known amount. We have inflation and rising health insurance costs, as well as other unknowns like that. So while 25x is a great thing to say, I am sitting here with > 25x and I'm not shuffling off to early retirement yet as much as I want to because it's imprudent. If had 100x then there's probably enough slop in the calculation to get a positive experimental outcome (in this case retiring early and not running out of money).

It's fucking ridiculous how much money we "need" for retirement in the US in order to live even modestly because everything is designed to fleece us.

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#79

Post by teej »

hiram112 wrote: post #65
teej wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario and 12% for aggressive. Due to the exponential nature of compound interest, just a single point of overoptimism in your real growth number leads to a massive overestimation of your results. 1.07 ^ 30 = 7.6, 1.09 ^ 30 = 13.3, and 1.12 ^ 30 = 30.0 It's baseline assumptions are way off.

>it's also using a 9% rate of return for the "conservative" scenario... If 9% is good enough for most federal, state, and local pension estimates, it's good enough for us, too. /s

If you want a fun story of making terrible long term choices based on faulty rate of return numbers, look no farther than MLB player Bobby Banilla (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Bonilla).

The Mets wanted to get rid of Bobby in the year 2000 but owed him $5.9M. Mets owner Fred Wilpon thought it a good idea if he asked Bobby to defer payments on that $5.9m for 11 years. Fred would invest that $5.9M today and make out in the black. Fred would just turn around and get a 10% return from his buddy Bernie Madoff and have over $16M in 11 years.

Lets just say that story doesn't have a happy ending. Bobby Banilla will get paid $29.8M dollars over 25 years for a season he never played. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bobby-bonilla-retire...

Re: Show HN: Investment Calculator – A simple retirement calculator

#80

Post by Jtsummers »

matte_black wrote: post #45

Someone should make a debt calculator that shows when debt will be paid off.

https://unbury.me

I believe I first saw this as a Show HN a few years ago. Enter in each of your debts (balance, minimum payment, interest rate) and select your method of repayment and the extra you can put into it (if any).

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