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What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

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Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#191

Post by bigbugbag »

yters wrote: post #86
joe_the_user wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism? Maybe the "industry" is called capitalism and where one part might spew massive carbon in whatever form to the world, another part provides fake data, fake arguments and fake theories to say "it's okay"/"it will work out"/"it's a conspiracy!!" and the other publicizes these till everyone forgets.

Interesting. So communist countries must be carbon neutral.

Your reasoning is akin to a logical fallacy, capitalism being what contributes the most to climate change does not mean that anything that is not capitalism is carbon neutral.

Then there are other option than capitalism/communism to consider. Look at the only carbon neutral (actually carbon positive) country on the planet: Bhutan. Neither communism nor capitalism are at play in this incredible achievement, but IINM it's Driglam namzha[1].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driglam_namzha

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#192

Post by WhitneyLand »

rmetzler wrote: post #152

I regularly have discussion about climate change with my dad. He doesn't deny that human interference does influence weather and climate, but he says there isn't enough evidence that this is the only reason why the climate is changing. The Greenhouse effect once was something natural and positive - we couldn't live on a planet without the Greenhouse effect. But now the meaning changed and it includes that human race…

I’ve upvoted your comment. It’s flawed logic, but I see it as highly counterproductive to downvote people who seem to be reasoning about a problem or discussing their perceptions in good faith.

So many revered scientists have made comments that today would sound jackass silly. I doubt anyone here doesn’t have such comments under their belt.

Thinking or asking alone can never be wrong. As long as it’s well intentioned and open to the possibility of accepting counter arguments.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#193

Post by bigbugbag »

mistermann wrote: post #124
meri_dian wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that there are no worries, but the worst case scenarios being put forward are almost certainly not accurate. In fact it has been acknowledged that the worst case models submitted to the Paris Climate Accord talks were misleading in their assumptions.

Anyone have a citation or rebuttal for this?

yup. There was one published study that basically says that if they are right which is not proven then the worst case scenario is slightly less probable.

But Paris Climate Accord are now dated, 2017 report from IPCC says the 2°C objective has already failed and we're heading for a 3 to 5°C average global temperature increase whatever we do by the end of the century, such a global average increase translate into a 6 to 10°C average continental temperature increase. With a 6 to 10°C temperature increase no known agriculture is possible.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#194

Post by bigbugbag »

a_imho wrote: post #148

Assuming we need to worry about climate change in the short term, what are the best mitigations on individual level? What can a person do to prepare for climate change? Move somewhere less affected? Hoard money/resources?

Vote with your money, a.k.a. boycott. do not support any product/service that contribute to climate change.

Aim for the level of life of a regular Indian citizen, or even better Bhutanese.

Invest in insulation of your home, learn survivalist skills (how to make a fire, make a shelter, grow food, treat disease, make medicine, etc.) prepare for a scenario where you have to live a nomadic on the go for a while, join a group of similar minded individual.

Or if you have the required kind of budget, follow the step of the ultra rich and buy yourself a piece of land in a remote place (new zealand is hot right now) and build yourself a bunker with enough ressources to live on your own for as long as necessary.

Basically you want to find a way to ride out the collapse of civilization and be equipped to rebuild afterwards.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#195

Post by Caveman_Coder »

bigbugbag wrote: post #194
a_imho wrote: post #148

Assuming we need to worry about climate change in the short term, what are the best mitigations on individual level? What can a person do to prepare for climate change? Move somewhere less affected? Hoard money/resources?

Vote with your money, a.k.a. boycott. do not support any product/service that contribute to climate change. Aim for the level of life of a regular Indian citizen, or even better Bhutanese. Invest in insulation of your home, learn survivalist skills (how to make a fire, make a shelter, grow food, treat disease, make medicine, etc.) prepare for a scenario where you have to live a nomadic on the go for a while, join a g…

> "...learn survivalist skills (how to make a fire, make a shelter, grow food, treat disease, make medicine, etc.)"

These used to just be "normal" skills that people knew...funny how things have changed.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#196

Post by yters »

b1daly wrote: post #168
oldandtired wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which scientific consensus? The IPCC climate scientists with their models or the physicists, engineers, climate scientists and others who are raising the questions and the information that disputes these conclusions? There are many who don't dispute that climate change occurs, what they say is that anthropogenic effects are, at this time, unknown and that any anthropogenic causes are minor compared to the various oth…

I agree with your point that we should consider the evidence, and conclusions, presented to us as the work product of scientists. Especially as much of the information is shaped by innumerable cognitive biases. However, I’m fascinated that someone could realistically doubt the “theory of evolution.” For one thing, it is very much an active area of research, with new discoveries all the time. (Reading about the epigen…

Most intelligent design proponents merely think undirected evolution cannot work, due to a variety of mathematical and scientific reasons. This does mean things like common descent, natural selection and heredity are false.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#197

Post by yters »

bigbugbag wrote: post #191
yters wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. So communist countries must be carbon neutral.

Your reasoning is akin to a logical fallacy, capitalism being what contributes the most to climate change does not mean that anything that is not capitalism is carbon neutral. Then there are other option than capitalism/communism to consider. Look at the only carbon neutral (actually carbon positive) country on the planet: Bhutan. Neither communism nor capitalism are at play in this incredible achievement, but IINM i…

It sounds like the problem is irresponsible people, not capitalism per se.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#198

Post by bigbugbag »

ThomPete wrote: post #190
jschwartzi wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with CAFE? Or the EPA in general? You were the one who made that statement about New York being underwater. Find me a date and a quote and I'll tell you exactly how things changed afterward. The point I'm trying to make is that we've already taken steps to limit impact which is why the apocalyptic scenarios of yesteryear haven't come to pass.

"Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. Summer melting this year reduced the…

Where exactly does this predict that new york would be under water by now ? The BBC article quotes: "In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040." and "A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that's what our models were telling us. But as we've seen, the models aren't fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate." "My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of."

The snopes articles says Al Gore sometimes inaccurately represented studies that predicted the timeline for an ice-free Arctic.

Not even close to your initial claim.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#199

Post by ThomPete »

bigbugbag wrote: post #198
ThomPete wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. Summer melting this year reduced the…

Where exactly does this predict that new york would be under water by now ? The BBC article quotes: "In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040." and "A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that's what our models were telling us. But as we've seen, the models aren't fast enough right now; w…

If you want to just discuss rhetorics by all means here is one example of that claim.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/06/flashback-abc-news-w...

Not sure what the point about whether new york or not. The general point was that there was alarmist claims as those I linked to in the previous post.

I was responding in the same style of the claims about what the so-called "climate deniers" had claimed. I could ask the same questions with regards to the claims about what climate catastrophe skeptics have said if I wanted to be that pedantic.

I am still waiting to hear how our decisions curved those predictions as you can't have it both ways.

jschwartz is trying to have it both ways. Both claim that we curved a catastrophe by our actions while questioning it was ever claimed it would happen.

This discussion illustrates the two major views debate back in 2007

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-28qNd6ass

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#200

Post by bigbugbag »

rmetzler wrote: post #152

I regularly have discussion about climate change with my dad. He doesn't deny that human interference does influence weather and climate, but he says there isn't enough evidence that this is the only reason why the climate is changing. The Greenhouse effect once was something natural and positive - we couldn't live on a planet without the Greenhouse effect. But now the meaning changed and it includes that human race…

Your dad would benefit from a crash course in critical thinking. Climate is changing humans or not is one thing, but that current climate change is a consequence of human activity is another which as factual as the first. We even named the mass extinction accompanying the anthropocene mass extinction event to point out that it's man made.[1]

The greenhouse effect is still the greenhouse effect and its meaning has not changed a bit. But the anthropogenic greenhouse effect (additional greenhouse effect caused by human activity) came on top of the natural one and push the system towards a tipping point where the current climatic system loses its balance and evolves into a different system. For example a positive feedback loop in greenhouse effect, called a runaway greenhouse effect, could make the oceans boil away.

It does not take much effort to find out that water vapor is actually taken into account in the discussion as water vapor strengthen other greenhouse gases such as CO2 through forementioned positive feedback[2]. warmer world means more water vapor in the athmosphere whichs means more potent greenhouse gases which means warmer world, etc.

I don't know where your dad got the idea that nobody talks about the growing ice in Antarctica, it's been discussed and studied and we know that ice melting in the arctic far exceeds the ice growing in the antarctic so global sea ice is rapidly diminishing[3][4]

Volcanic activity release of CO2 is about 1% that of human activity[5] so it's a non starter, but then interesting detail is that this is also a positive feedback loop as climate change is likely to increase volcanic activity[6].

[1]: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/67/12/1026/46052... signed by 15,000+ scientist from over 184 countries.

[2]: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.energ...

[3]: https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reach...

[4]: https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nasa-study-shows-global...

[5]: https://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warmin...

[6]: https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/22/572795936...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/30/climate-...

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