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Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

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Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#11

Post by jaygarmon »

TallGuyShort wrote: post #2

I really don't see his point. He says Facebook is too big to fail, and compares it to AOL. Yeah, AOL is still around, but it is no longer seen as a controlling force in the ISP industry. The goal of Diaspora has never been to wipe Facebook off the face (no pun intended) of the Earth - but to stop it from being such a controlling factor in social media. If Diaspora causes Facebook to become as popular as AIM is now (w…

My point -- and I apologize if it was not clearly made -- was not that Facebook can't be beaten, but that Diaspora isn't the product to do so. My position isn't that there isn't dissatisfaction with Facebook, simply that for all the hue and cry about privacy, I don't think intuitive privacy controls are going to be what makes a mass number of average users switch.

Facebook beat MySpace ultimately by being easier to use, with a cleaner interface. It also struck at a time when social networking technology (and broadband access) had matured to the point necessary for mass public acceptance. The normal lifecycle for every major social network before Facebook was about 18 months -- that's about the span of time MySpace was king of the hill.

I in fact predict that Facebook will eventually fade to AOL-esque irrelevance. I just don't think Diaspora has the right value proposition to slay the Facebook dragon.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#12

Post by dnautics »

I feel like they would have said 'too big to fail' about myspace, too, but Facebook won because there was social cachet in being 'exclusive' and because myspace pages were butt-ugly (too much user control). You never know what's going to or not going to be the achilles heel. Perhaps, in the end, people simply yearn for change and any excuse will do, informed or otherwise.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#13

Post by nlavezzo »

Does anyone remember what happened to Myspace? Of course it was complicated, but I think the primary driver in the exodus from Myspace to Facebook were the perceived privacy benefits of Facebook. People do care about privacy, but will only act on it if there is a reasonably convenient alternative - if Diaspora can make itself convenient, I think it has a chance.

Also, add in a slow news week with some sensationalized mainstream stories about privacy that mention Diaspora, and I think the odds increase even more. People love to have something to be paranoid about with their friends.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#14

Post by what »

djacobs wrote: post #3
TallGuyShort wrote: post #2

I really don't see his point. He says Facebook is too big to fail, and compares it to AOL. Yeah, AOL is still around, but it is no longer seen as a controlling force in the ISP industry. The goal of Diaspora has never been to wipe Facebook off the face (no pun intended) of the Earth - but to stop it from being such a controlling factor in social media. If Diaspora causes Facebook to become as popular as AIM is now (w…

I agree. Sure, if we define "failure" as something as embarrassing as "bankruptcy", maybe Facebook won't "fail". But if we define failure as "starting to decline instead of inflate, after years of unchecked growth", well, maybe that's what Diaspora is actually after. I think the article's other points are equally invalid... How can Facebook's "500 million user" base be the impediment to people adopting Diaspora? Sure…

   How can Facebook's "500 million user" base be the impediment to 
   people adopting Diaspora?
Because you're going to stay where your friends are, unless it's really easy to switch. It's not going to be easy to switch to Diaspora when you have to host your own node. Then when you do switch, you won't be able to find any of your friends. Diaspora has no solution to the discovery problem. There's no way to search for people, you'll have to ask all your friends where their node is; It will be like exchanging emails again. Sounds like a lot of hassle for not much gain.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#15

Post by troymc »

The Facebook privacy debacle isn't about privacy, it's about trust. Facebook is a company people trusted to keep their party photos private among a close group of college friends, then one day their aunt says she can see those photos. All of them. "Why??? I didn't change any settings????"

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#16

Post by stcredzero »

mdasen wrote: post #7

The problem that I have with Diaspora is that they haven't said how they're going to solve the two problems I find interesting. Specifically, Diaspora says that you'll be in charge of your data and that it will be "encrypted at every leg". The problem is that I can't see how Diaspora will address those issues (and I'll explain why). First, they say that they're going to put you in charge of your data. If you post som…

For encryption to be worth something, it needs to be unencrypted by the end user. However, I don't see how they'd do that. Browsers don't integrate this functionality and one could write a plugin, but that's a big barrier to adoption.

I'm not sure why a plugin is necessary. Javascript can do encryption. Actually, I'm not even sure why airtight end-to-end encryption is necessary. Most people will use a "standard" install. The "standard" install will honor the good-faith deletion requests. Those not using a standard install are SOL. Those who have gotten hacked -- there will be a continual arms race just as there is now. This is nothing new. It's still a far cry better than Big Company Has All Your Data Just Trust Us.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#17

Post by stcredzero »

drivingmenuts wrote: post #9

So? Diaspora (as I understand it) isn't supposed to topple Facebook. It's a solution for the people who want to opt out of FB badly enough that they will install the tools to do so. The average user may not think about security, but the average user isn't likely to go to even moderate lengths to install social-networking software.

Such software could be hosted online for cheap using Amazon as a back end.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#18

Post by stcredzero »

what wrote: post #14
djacobs wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Sure, if we define "failure" as something as embarrassing as "bankruptcy", maybe Facebook won't "fail". But if we define failure as "starting to decline instead of inflate, after years of unchecked growth", well, maybe that's what Diaspora is actually after. I think the article's other points are equally invalid... How can Facebook's "500 million user" base be the impediment to people adopting Diaspora? Sure…

How can Facebook's "500 million user" base be the impediment to people adopting Diaspora? Because you're going to stay where your friends are, unless it's really easy to switch. It's not going to be easy to switch to Diaspora when you have to host your own node. Then when you do switch, you won't be able to find any of your friends. Diaspora has no solution to the discovery problem. There's no way to search for peopl…

Why make it necessary to switch? Make it an adjunct to FB. The more secure super-hip adjunct. I can imagine someone getting their circle of hip friends on FB because they want to share some racy stuff, and they no longer trust FB. It's entirely plausible that they could still keep track of their school chums and parents on FB.

People in protest movements would gravitate toward such software. They have reason to be paranoid about a centralized corporate service.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#19

Post by what »

stcredzero wrote: post #18
what wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can Facebook's "500 million user" base be the impediment to people adopting Diaspora? Because you're going to stay where your friends are, unless it's really easy to switch. It's not going to be easy to switch to Diaspora when you have to host your own node. Then when you do switch, you won't be able to find any of your friends. Diaspora has no solution to the discovery problem. There's no way to search for peopl…

Why make it necessary to switch? Make it an adjunct to FB. The more secure super-hip adjunct. I can imagine someone getting their circle of hip friends on FB because they want to share some racy stuff, and they no longer trust FB. It's entirely plausible that they could still keep track of their school chums and parents on FB. People in protest movements would gravitate toward such software. They have reason to be pa…

Everything still stands. It's too much effort for normal people to host their own node and you won't be able to find anyone else on it. They have to solve discovery before it will even come close to useful.

Re: Diaspora doesn’t have what it takes to topple Facebook

#20

Post by varjag »

mdasen wrote: post #7

The problem that I have with Diaspora is that they haven't said how they're going to solve the two problems I find interesting. Specifically, Diaspora says that you'll be in charge of your data and that it will be "encrypted at every leg". The problem is that I can't see how Diaspora will address those issues (and I'll explain why). First, they say that they're going to put you in charge of your data. If you post som…

> You can have a good-faith "please delete this" but that doesn't stop another party from keeping it.

You can revoke your signature for that message, where it effectively ceases to be yours.

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