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What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

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Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was also convinced that this was a reasonable way of looking at things because often the "climate change debate" is portrayed as two-sided; one arguing that climate change isn't a big deal and one arguing that it is. This leads to the false supposition that the true answer lies somewhere in the middle, but unfortunately it does not. For me, one of the most eye-opening experiences was reading an article from the New…

The New York Magazine is not research. Want to know what the actual research says? Look at figure 10.1 on page 690 of the IPCC’s AR5 WG II report. As it shows, most of the studies on the total impact of climate change for increases between 2.6 and 4.8 °C, which is the range for the IPCC’s highest emissions scenario during the 21st century, result in estimates of the impact on welfare equivalent to a change between 0%…

This report is from 2014. Since then a few GDP hits happened: Texas, Northeastern seaboard... Excepted value distribution is extremely skewed.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#92
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

You ever see interstellar? Bad news -- drought/blight/warmth could destroy crops...perhaps even be an extinction level event. Good news -- there is none.. likelihood of aliens or future humans saving us is next to nil. I think we have maybe 50 years till we're close to any near ELE but my kid might see it.

Ask Paul Beckwith about the fifty year estimate.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was also convinced that this was a reasonable way of looking at things because often the "climate change debate" is portrayed as two-sided; one arguing that climate change isn't a big deal and one arguing that it is. This leads to the false supposition that the true answer lies somewhere in the middle, but unfortunately it does not. For me, one of the most eye-opening experiences was reading an article from the New…

The New York Magazine is not research. Want to know what the actual research says? Look at figure 10.1 on page 690 of the IPCC’s AR5 WG II report. As it shows, most of the studies on the total impact of climate change for increases between 2.6 and 4.8 °C, which is the range for the IPCC’s highest emissions scenario during the 21st century, result in estimates of the impact on welfare equivalent to a change between 0%…

An overly simplistic conclusion based on a pick-and-choose approach to the report. First let me quote from the summary just a few pages down: "In sum, estimates of the aggregate economic impact of climate change are relatively small but with a large downside risk. Estimates of the incremental damage per tonne of CO2 emitted vary by two orders of magnitude, with the assumed discount rate the main driver of the differences between estimates. The literature on the impact of climate and climate change on economic growth and development has yet to reach firm conclusions. There is agreement that climate change would slow economic growth, by a little according to some studies and by a lot according to other studies. Different economies will be affected differently. Some studies suggest that climate change may trap more people in poverty."

Note that the literature diverges in its estimation of the impact. Much of the report on the economic impact basically says "there's a lot we don't know about most of these things" because the event haven't taken place yet. But that doesn't mean we can't extrapolate. Economic forces push populations. And, the effects will differ by geography, which is the crucial point. If only coastal areas are affected, that will still incentivize people to make decisions that affect inland economies. And these are the risks that a high proportion of the world's population would face (from the very same report):

The key risks that follow, all of which are identified with high confidence, span sectors and regions. Each of these key risks contributes to one or more reasons for concern [RFC].

i) Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea level rise.37 [RFC 1-5] ii) Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.38 [RFC 2 and 3] iii) Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.39 [RFC 2-4] iv) Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.40 [RFC 2 and 3] v) Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.41 [RFC 2-4] vi) Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.42 [RFC 2 and 3] vii) Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.43 [RFC 1, 2, and 4] viii) Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.44 [RFC 1, 3, and 4] Many key risks constitute particular challenges for the least developed countries and vulnerable communities, given their limited ability to cope.

IF you were correct in your assertion that the economic cost of doing nothing is lower than the economic cost of doing something, the ETHICAL cost of doing nothing is immeasurable because we'd willingly be exposing current and future generations to all of the above higher risks.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#94
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

As far as sea-level rises are concerned, the Arctic sea ice will probably be a net sea-level fall, except around the Equator. If all of the Greenland glaciers were to disappear, well then, we would see a sea-level rise, globally. But it would be distributed unevenly across the world. The higher levels would again be around the Equator with decreasing levels the further north or south of the Equator you go. But to get…

Your reasoning omits that there is also a large amount of energy stored im the oceans. The greenlandic glaciers have already sped up and are calving into the oceans where there is plenty of energy to melt them.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#95

Too bad we can't create a dyson sphere that we could partially close to limit sun exposure enough to refreeze parts of the planet as needed and also use the sphere to power everything on earth.

This reminds me of the Sun-Earth-L1 Lagrangian point, where we have deployed several spacecrafts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point#Spaceflight_a...

An international effort could easily deploy reflective materials here to reduce solar radiation on Earth. Though I wonder how much it would cost to achieve even a 0.01% reduction in radiation, as well as what material would be most cost-effective to deploy.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#96
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

Would melting sea ice lead to a rise in sea level? The ice is floating, so it's displacing the approximately same mass of water as it contains. If it melts the overall water level shouldn't change.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#97
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

The very real possibility of 98% of life on Earth dying?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#98
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

A huge part of world's population lives on coastal cities. When cities like Mumbai and Dhaka will start to submerge, you can imagine the havoc that will cause. Also, some countries like maldives will completely submerge. I don't think europeans would be very happy about accepting these people, given the situation that has arisen from Middle eastern migration.

A lot of wildlife requires specific environmental situation. A lot of species won't survive changes in temperature.

Most poor people will have hard time surviving either increased flooding or increased droughts. Where I live(South MH, India), we are already facing drought every other year, and I am preety sure this is going to get worse. Millions live in this area. Where do you think we will move when we don't have water? (clue: look for places with more water)

So in short, huge parts of world either get submerged in sea, suffer from severe droughts/flooding, from desertification, or from the destruction of crops. Without food, water and land, people migrate in large numbers, and thus exert more pressure on those places.

Some experts believe that a war is likely between India and China over water in next decade.

I haven't touched the issue of lack of antibiotics and resurgence of old diseases at all.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#99
post #96
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

Would melting sea ice lead to a rise in sea level? The ice is floating, so it's displacing the approximately same mass of water as it contains. If it melts the overall water level shouldn't change.

The ice on Antarctica is on land.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#100
post #96
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

Would melting sea ice lead to a rise in sea level? The ice is floating, so it's displacing the approximately same mass of water as it contains. If it melts the overall water level shouldn't change.

Although you are right, note that liquid water expands as it heats. Also, not all ice is floating.
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