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Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

technologyreview.com

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Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#21

Post by SimbaOnSteroids »

vram22 wrote: post #12
craftyguy wrote: post #2

Mechanization 'destroyed' millions of jobs, when people were replaced by mechanized equipment replaced farm workers, horse breeders/tenders, folks in the transportation business, etc. Electronic computers 'destroyed' jobs when they replaced human computers. Motorized street sweepers 'destroyed' jobs when they replaced people with brooms sweeping debris off of streets (except in Beijing where, as of 2015, this is stil…

People saying "it will be different this time" turned out to be false about bubbles. Saying not (of) "it will be different this time", i.e. "it will be the same this time", i.e. your claim, can also turn out to be false. >bowers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowyer >Pardon the harshness here, I feel like the only people this is truly a surprise to is either folks that ignore the past, or are incapable of understandin…

We're dealing with a different kind of mechanization this time, previous mechanizations were largely manual labors. We've been retreating further and further into the one thing we haven't been able to automate away, our creative intelligence and problem solving, what happens when we figure out how to write something that can do that?

It's like being a horse at the turn of the last century saying well we've always had horse jobs throughout various advancements in horse-labor tech, this internal combustion engine should be no big deal we'll find horse jobs.

We all know how that turned out for horses, now we're pushing closer and closer to the precipice of being the horses at the turn of the last century. Sure it'll be impossible to tell whats going to be the straw that breaks the camels back but we should be ready for each straw to break the camels back, and not assume it won't.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#22

Post by sago »

craftyguy wrote: post #2

Mechanization 'destroyed' millions of jobs, when people were replaced by mechanized equipment replaced farm workers, horse breeders/tenders, folks in the transportation business, etc. Electronic computers 'destroyed' jobs when they replaced human computers. Motorized street sweepers 'destroyed' jobs when they replaced people with brooms sweeping debris off of streets (except in Beijing where, as of 2015, this is stil…

> The past is literally filled with examples of a new technology replacing people, and those people eventually found other things to do.

For a comment so seemingly proud of its historical knowledge, this seems a very bizarre claim.

People as a whole could be said to have adapted, but the affected individuals very often didn't. The suffering was immense. Modern social safety net and the welfare state are directly related to the abject poverty resulting from the dramatic and often cataclysmic urbanisation of the industrial revolution.

So yes, humanity will survive and adapt. It won't be the end of the world. But avoiding analogous problems to the concomitant evils of the industrial revolution is exactly why we need this discussion. Shrugging one's shoulders at the problems of history, because a new equilibrium arose, seems to me to betray the real lack of historical understanding.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#24

Post by sologoub »

While China’s use of data has a lot fewer restraints than US/EU, another interesting question to consider is how the government will react when the jobs of their population start to go away and unrest set in. If we are sitting on a powder keg, then China’s and India’s are the biggest ones.

Policy will be a huge wildcard and also criteria for long term success.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#26

Post by T2_t2 »

sologoub wrote: post #24

While China’s use of data has a lot fewer restraints than US/EU, another interesting question to consider is how the government will react when the jobs of their population start to go away and unrest set in. If we are sitting on a powder keg, then China’s and India’s are the biggest ones. Policy will be a huge wildcard and also criteria for long term success.

Are China & India really the issue? I mean, McDonalds only just committed to automation of ordering at a minimum wage much higher than that in China or India.

I think we over estimate where and by how much automation will strike. Poor to middle income people in rich countries are most at risk. Question is, can we pivot the country to find gainful employment for the dispersed peoples?

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#27

Post by jacquesm »

failrate wrote: post #23

I feel strongly that we should stop using jobs as a metric of the value of human worth. If every job disappeared today due to automation, we would need to find a new role in the world. I think we should start looking for it now before that happens.

> I feel strongly that we should stop using jobs as a metric of the value of human worth.

I totally agree with you. But even in the present that's a tough sell, many people derive all or most of their self worth from their skill and their capability to generate income. It's the second question people will ask a new person they come in contact with, right after 'what's your name', and long before 'what are your hobbies' and 'do you have kids' or 'are you married'.

And it's already begun, no need to add your 'before that happens' disclaimer, not all jobs lost to automation have resulted in successful transfer to a different job.

The job market will get squeezed from all sides, on the high end because of the pension requirements it will get expanded to keep experienced and older people away from their pension, on the low end you will see an increase in the number of qualifications required for a particular job and automation slashes like a giant comb across the whole thing to remove those jobs that it can now absorb on a regular basis.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#28

Post by GoToRO »

failrate wrote: post #23

I feel strongly that we should stop using jobs as a metric of the value of human worth. If every job disappeared today due to automation, we would need to find a new role in the world. I think we should start looking for it now before that happens.

Even today, if you have a job, you are paid more for your time. In the future the face time will be the main "skill" to bring you money.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#29

Post by jacquesm »

petre wrote: post #25

The tractor and the combined harvester also destroyed jobs. Pepole learned to embrace change.

Yes, that's because the change led from one class of employment to another. But none of the changes of the past went from one class of employment to none. That's a totally different kind of change.

Re: Tech companies should stop pretending AI won’t destroy jobs

#30

Post by [deleted] »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #14
randyrand wrote: post #9

same should be said of minimum wage. Minimum wage is probably the worst form of income redistribution we use. not allowing people to have salaries competitively priced vs machines will cause most of the swift pain AI will bring. please, replace minimum wage with more welfare or better yet negative income tax. Of course, some jobs will die regardless. But minimum wage greatly exacerbates this.

A lot of people said that about the minimum wage in the UK before it was introduced, it turned out to be far from the truth.

[deleted]
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